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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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Just took a semi-official measurement with a ruler this time, haha...... 2.5".. probably close to 3" when done. 

 

It is nearly perfect out there right now. No wind, snow falling steadily, no cars driving around so it's quiet. It's bright as daylight due to the low clouds, just a great night!

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00z GFS was not bad, not bad at all. Friday's system may end as snow in MO/NE OK.  Looks like something interesting may happen the 19th-20th. And then around the 22nd-23rd. It would be nice if we could get one of these systems to wrap up to our south instead of being positive tilt troughs with overrunning. 

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00z GFS was not bad, not bad at all. Friday's system may end as snow in MO/NE OK. Looks like something interesting may happen the 19th-20th. And then around the 22nd-23rd. It would be nice if we could get one of these systems to wrap up to our south instead of being positive tilt troughs with overrunning.

So my guess is that we're trending colder now than a couple days ago?

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So my guess is that we're trending colder now than a couple days ago?

 

I don't remember. I've looked at too many models since then and I'm starting to get them confused. I'm waiting on the Euro at midnight to check out Friday's storm. The Canadian (GGEM) has snow north of the MO border with that system and it looks like temps will be close. 

 

I'm just enjoying the actual snow and chances at winter weather this year!

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I don't remember. I've looked at too many models since then and I'm starting to get them confused. I'm waiting on the Euro at midnight to check out Friday's storm. The Canadian (GGEM) has snow north of the MO border with that system and it looks like temps will be close.

I'm just enjoying the actual snow and chances at winter weather this year!

Lol. I hear ya man. Its awesome to have a year look so promising so early.

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Springfield said their liquid to snow ratio was 18:1. 

 

00z Euro says Friday may begin as frozen, but 850's look toasty until you get to central MO or so. Temps look to reach about 40 or so... however they remain closer to freezing in some of the valleys of Arkansas it looks like. Might be some freezing rain or something there. 

 

 

Edit: Rest of the run to hour 240 was dry. Small warm ups before it gets cold again with more Arctic air dropping in from the north, this looks like a glancing blow as most of the coldest air should move towards the Great Lakes region. Ridge reasserts itself off the west coast up to just west of Alaska, trough plowing into the northwest US and that's the end of the run.

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00z Euro Ensemble mean went back to the idea of dropping Arctic air down the eastern side of the Rockies again (D11-15), looks pretty much like a repeat of what we just had as far as the temp anomalies go, maybe not quite as extreme. Same area of high pressure off the west coast, high heights pushing into the Gulf of Alaska.

 

Edit: Last nights CFS v2 shows the same repeating pattern through January... Arctic air reloads in SW Canada, pushes southeast... repeat. lol

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And the 12z GFS has the cold air further west by d10 dumping into a western trough and a pretty stout SE ridge.

 

00z Euro had the same thing last night. It's basically going to be very similar to what we just had happen. Not sure on the precip details this far out, but the same general pattern.

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Yeah which is a good thing going forward I would think.  Hopefully this becomes the recurring theme for most of the winter.

 

It's a pretty good look. If the trough stays farther west though and remains positive, that will set us up for ice storms. However if systems drop in and eject out, we'll be more likely to get lows passing to our south and maybe they can actually wrap up to our south giving us snow. 

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12z Euro still says the Friday system will start as something frozen and to watch the Arkansas valleys to stay close to the freezing mark.

 

Looking ahead, temps look to warm as the next Arctic blast heads down the Plains. By  the end of the run (h240), it looks like the cold front is around St. Joseph, MO back down to Dodge City with the really cold air (teens) back in Nebraska and the subzero air in N. Dakota. The upper air pattern has a trough in the west, with an area of high heights in the Gulf of Alaska and a ridge in the SE. This all seems very familiar to the evolution of what just happened with our last Arctic airmass.

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The 12z Euro Ensembles didn't have any surprises from what's expected. Arctic cold front still around the 20th-21st. Remains below normal for everyone through the end of the run which ends Christmas morning. 

 

The Euro control run is the Euro that is run out to Day 15 (or hour 360) at a lower resolution. From there, the model is run 50 more times, each time making adjustments for initial conditions, the end result is the ensemble mean of all those runs. It's a smoothed product but it helps in forecasting longer ranges and getting a look at the overall pattern and what's expected.

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JoMo, Thanks for all the Euro updates.  You continue to "feed the beast" in all of us with the news that long range models all continue to show the arctic pattern repeating itself.  That is definitely good news for us all.  Sounds like Christmas week could be fun if we can get a storm. 

 

I will say I'm glad the ice has finally started melting off of the roads today.  The local city and Arkansas state highway departments did a HORRIBLE job in cleaning off the roads here in NWA.  Schools should finally be back in session tomorrow after 4 days out. 

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JoMo, Thanks for all the Euro updates.  You continue to "feed the beast" in all of us with the news that long range models all continue to show the arctic pattern repeating itself.  That is definitely good news for us all.  Sounds like Christmas week could be fun if we can get a storm. 

 

I will say I'm glad the ice has finally started melting off of the roads today.  The local city and Arkansas state highway departments did a HORRIBLE job in cleaning off the roads here in NWA.  Schools should finally be back in session tomorrow after 4 days out. 

 

Oh it's not a problem. I'm 'addicted' to model watching and snow anyway, might as well feed the other addicts as well, lol. Plus, I can look back on it and see if there were any changes. 

 

From what I can see though, it looks like a 'reload' of what we just had. The 18z GFS holds the cold air up a bit, while the Euro ensembles push it all the way into Texas again. 

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Oh it's not a problem. I'm 'addicted' to model watching and snow anyway, might as well feed the other addicts as well, lol. Plus, I can look back on it and see if there were any changes.

From what I can see though, it looks like a 'reload' of what we just had. The 18z GFS holds the cold air up a bit, while the Euro ensembles push it all the way into Texas again.

Well, the euro has been the model of choice so far this year. I see no reason why it wouldn't continue right? Just need that strong southern storm track to show up in full wrapping low force!

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Ryan Maue from WxBell posted this on his twitter. It's the 12z Euro Ensemble mean temp anomaly (C degrees below/above normal) for Dec 22nd which is a Sunday morning. Brrr!

BbJu33ACEAAtbrJ.png

Brr! Is correct. I'm actually slowly getting used to being this cold finally. Lol. Takes me about 10 minutes to get all my layers on in the morning before work. I work in whatever temperature it is outside but I have no problem with a much colder and snowier than average winter if it should materialize.

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