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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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Getting a mix of snow/sleet/freezing drizzle type stuff here.

 

The 00z Euro Ensemble mean still didn't look bad in the long range. (Day 11-15)  Temps probably average out to near normal with colder than normal air situated north of I-44 at the end of the run with really cold air poking down into Minnesota. It has more of a central/eastern trough look. The Ensemble control run very much looked like a repeat of what just happened (temp wise)... ridge builds off the west coast, pushes up into Alaska... big cold air outbreak into the central US...but it typically is extreme.

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Roads have gotten slick out in front of the house again in a hurry with pretty decent freezing drizzle. Winter Weather Advisory up until noon now.

 

I'm looking intently at the Monday night system with the potential for a "surprise" inch or so in the area. We shall see what the 12z models indicate.

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Roads have gotten slick out in front of the house again in a hurry with pretty decent freezing drizzle. Winter Weather Advisory up until noon now.

 

I'm looking intently at the Monday night system with the potential for a "surprise" inch or so in the area. We shall see what the 12z models indicate.

 

12z GFS. The 12z NAM looks a bit farther south.. The 00z Euro had this as well and was closer to the GFS, although lighter.

 

Looks like that 1.5" I ended up missing from the big storm,

 

gfsslight.png

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Yeah, the NAM looks too far south... although it is a trend that will have to be watched. Could you post the EURO info when it comes out? I don't have very good access to it. It is pretty primitive looking. LOL

 

yeah, it starts around noon, I'll see if it has anything.

 

Looks like a wild weather day in the NFL, lots of snow/ice games!

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So is the general thinking that this pattern is going to reload itself again in a 10-14 days?

 

I'll check the 12z Euro Ensembles later this afternoon. I get those around 2-4 PM/AM. They have been trending colder towards a solution like that but farther east.

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In the long range (Day 11-15)... 12z Euro Ensemble Mean still shows a similar situation to last night's 00z Ensemble mean. A warm day or two is possible at the start but then a strong area of high pressure to the SW of Alaska leads to cold air infiltrating down the Plains, farther east than last time but it's just a mean so it's smoothed to get a general idea of the pattern. It looks like there would be a SE ridge influence so not sure how far south the cold air will make it south and east. Doesn't look like a major torch or anything at least. 

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In the long range (Day 11-15)... 12z Euro Ensemble Mean still shows a similar situation to last night's 00z Ensemble mean. A warm day or two is possible at the start but then a strong area of high pressure to the SW of Alaska leads to cold air infiltrating down the Plains, farther east than last time but it's just a mean so it's smoothed to get a general idea of the pattern. It looks like there would be a SE ridge influence so not sure how far south the cold air will make it south and east. Doesn't look like a major torch or anything at least.

Sounds like a potential ice threat may need to be watched. This is the kind of setup I hate. I don't want to spend Christmas in the dark.

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Sounds like a potential ice threat may need to be watched. This is the kind of setup I hate. I don't want to spend Christmas in the dark.

 

Too far out to know if we will have any systems or not. The operational 18z GFS long range looks sort of like what the Euro Ensembles are showing. 

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Too far out to know if we will have any systems or not. The operational 18z GFS long range looks sort of like what the Euro Ensembles are showing.

I agree. Just speculating a little. It does seem that the cold does want to shift east a bit more so it will be interesting to see if it does and the effects.

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Roads are a mess right now with a thin glaze of ice caused by the freezing drizzle that seems never ending. Winter Weather Advisory was reissued until 12 a.m. or 3 a.m. by SGF... depending on where in SW MO you live.

 

00z NAM came in a bit further north. We shall see what GFS and EURO say. May have to nowcast it with RAP and HRRR, since it is a such a narrow band that could cash in on more than an inch.

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Roads are a mess right now with a thin glaze of ice caused by the freezing drizzle that seems never ending. Winter Weather Advisory was reissued until 12 a.m. or 3 a.m. by SGF... depending on where in SW MO you live.

 

00z NAM came in a bit further north. We shall see what GFS and EURO say. May have to nowcast it with RAP and HRRR, since it is a such a narrow band that could cash in on more than an inch.

 

00z Euro stayed pretty much the same from it's 12z run when it came to this. Straight 10:1 accumulation:

 

1.1" Monett and Springfield

0.9" Joplin

Around 0.5" Tulsa

trace to 0.2" around OKC

0.2"-0.7" from south to north in NW Arkansas.

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The 00z Euro says the system on Friday will probably start as frozen precip, before turning over to just rain across the entire area.

 

After that, we'll get into a bit of NW flow as a trough forms over the east and ridging pushes into the southwest through the rest of Day 10.

 

In the Day 11-15 time.... 00z Euro ensembles show the ridge in the SW losing influence early in the period, with a very strong ridge pushing into the Gulf of Alaska. The downstream response is to push Arctic air into the eastern Rockies and Plains once again with a central US trough. The mean has the colder air reaching the area around the 20th-21st and lasts through the end of the run on the 23rd. 

 

Also, it looks like I'll be getting the Euro weeklies on Monday and Thursday as that's almost setup. (although they have been bad lately)

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Latest RAP runs are less than impressive while the 06z NAM ramped the precip up quite a bit. GFS has been very consistent as has the EURO. It will be interesting to see how this event unfolds over the next 12-18 hours.

 

The radar is definitely starting to light up off to the west (relatively speaking, of course).  This isn't going to be a major storm by any stretch, but I bet some lucky folks see 3" or 4" of fluffy, powdery snow, and that will be more than enough to make driving an adventure (and, at least, here in Central Oklahoma, driving is still an adventure due to last week's snow).    

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The radar is definitely starting to light up off to the west (relatively speaking, of course). This isn't going to be a major storm by any stretch, but I bet some lucky folks see 3" or 4" of fluffy, powdery snow, and that will be more than enough to make driving an adventure (and, at least, here in Central Oklahoma, driving is still an adventure due to last week's snow).

Lol. NE OK is ridiculous unless you're on a highway as well. Be interesting to see what an inch of snow does over the packed down stuff we already have. Lol

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