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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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Afternoon Tulsa AFD:

 

 

 

ROUND TWO IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BEGIN LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. A NICE BAND OF PRECIP WILL SET UP ALONG THE MID
LVL DEFORMATION ZONE FROM EAST CENTRAL-NORTHEAST OK UP INTO
NORTHWEST AR. GENERALLY...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUS...A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS FROM NORTHERN TX UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AR. TEMP PROFILES STILL
SUGGEST THAT THE WARM LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH AND THE SURFACE
COLD LAYER WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PREVENT LIQUID FROM REACHING
THE GROUND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED...WITH A GOOD HALF INCH
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR THE RED RIVER
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND THE POWER
GRID ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA...AND FOR THAT REASON AN ICE STORM
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SLEET AND
SNOW COULD ALSO FALL IN THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIP WILL COME TO A RAPID END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS.
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mcd2060.gif

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CST THU DEC 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OZARKS NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 060025Z - 060500Z

SUMMARY...A SW-NE ORIENTED SWATH OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE
FROM FZRA TO SLEET AND SNOW LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED. PRECIPITATION
RATES MAY INCREASE NEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...PARTICULARLY INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP...CONTAINING MIXED P-TYPES...REMAINS CENTERED OVER NWRN
AR/SRN MO AND INTO SRN IL...OCCURRING WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND NEAR A LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. AS OF
00Z...THE SFC FREEZING LINE WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR FSM NEWD TO POF TO
EVV. PREDOMINANT P-TYPE NEAR AND IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE SFC
FREEZING LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FREEZING RAIN...AS WARM NOSE
LOCATED NEAR/ABOVE 850 MB IS MAINTAINED BY 40-50 KT OF SWLY FLOW
/PER LZK AND HPX VWP/ ATOP A LOW-LEVEL COLD DOME. A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL IS SUPPORTING A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW AND/OR SLEET TOWARDS THE NRN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SWATH. OBSERVED LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP RATES HAVE LARGELY
BEEN ON THE ORDER OF .05-0.1 INCH PER HR.

A SUBTLE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING NEWD OUT OF OK AND SHOULD
AID IN MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP RATES IN THE NEAR-TERM.
LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
INTO SERN MO AND SRN IL/IND...SUPPORTING INCREASING PRECIPITATION
RATES ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 05Z. BOTH OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THE SFC FREEZING LINE SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OR JOG SLIGHTLY SWD...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY NARROW P-TYPE
TRANSITION ZONE.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...AND COULD
SUPPORT INCREASING RATES OVER THE SRN OZARKS BEYOND 05Z.
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Southern Barry County (down around Seligman) down through Bentonville is just getting clobbered right now. I wonder if that is all snow or if there is sleet mixed in??

I'm in Lowell which is just south of Rogers/Bentonville.  We've been getting huge flakes for the last 1/2 hour or so.  No sleet mixed in here.  

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Man I can only imagine if this had been all snow! Its sleeting so hard here and has been for awhile now....local mets say 4-8" of snow overnight into noon tomorrow, we will see. Roads are horrible and in a state of emergency here now as well I believe

So Whiteout most of those impressive radar returns around Fayetteville are sleet?

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So Whiteout most of those impressive radar returns around Fayetteville are sleet?

Yep its been sleet all day here, started out mixed with a lil zr early this morning though. I can hear it pinging loudly off the windows! Last time I was outside(about 10 minutes ago) it was all sleet, really heavy too.

 

Local mets said the snow/sleet line is up in benton county, right through the middle of it right now. North of that line its snow, south its all predominately sleet.

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Yep its been sleet all day here, started out mixed with a lil zr early this morning though. I can hear it pinging loudly off the windows! Last time I was outside(about 10 minutes ago) it was all sleet, really heavy too.

 

Local mets said the snow/sleet line is up in benton county, right through the middle of it right now. North of that line its snow, south its all predominately sleet.

Man its gotta be getting bad there on roads.

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Yep its been sleet all day here, started out mixed with a lil zr early this morning though. I can hear it pinging loudly off the windows! Last time I was outside(about 10 minutes ago) it was all sleet, really heavy too.

Local mets said the snow/sleet line is up in benton county, right through the middle of it right now. North of that line its snow, south its all predominately sleet.

Yeah. Same in Adair county. Must be an elevation thing.

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Man its gotta be getting bad there on roads.

Yea man its horrible now, it wasnt so bad all day just mainly the bridges and overpasses. The ground was still warm I guess from the previous few days in the upper 60's lol. People are panicking bad here, I guess this isnt a normal thing in this area idk and all the past ice storms I guess I can see why. Whats your thinking for this to change over to snow down my way later on tonight?

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Yea man its horrible now, it wasnt so bad all day just mainly the bridges and overpasses. The ground was still warm I guess from the previous few days in the upper 60's lol. People are panicking bad here, I guess this isnt a normal thing in this area idk and all the past ice storms I guess I can see why. Whats your thinking for this to change over to snow down my way later on tonight?

 

I sure hope so, this sleet is crazy. I think we have about half inch-inch of sleet.

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