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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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We've had freezing rain/sleet mix off and on since around 7:30-8 this morning. So far only minor ice accumulations on elevated surfaces. Just a few miles south and east is a different story, with power outages being reported in  Jenny Lind, Arkansas (just south of Fort Smith.)

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I've been in a meeting (in a room with no windows) so I've miss the past 1 hour, but the snow has tapered off quite a bit in downtown OKC since my last report.  It looks (and sounds) like we are getting light sleet with the occasional flake of snow mixed in.  All surfaces (including roads) are snow/slush covered.  Evening rush hour is going to be a joy. 

 

EDIT:  I am officially in weenie mode now because I am bumming out that the back edge of this current (and maybe only?) burst of heavier, steadier precip is potentially several hours away.  It is probably time to stop looking at the radar and start enjoying what is happening outside my window (which, by the way, is back to steady light snow with little if any sleet mixed in).

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

229 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Issued at 224 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Snow has expanded this afternoon across the I-44 corridor...as upper

level ascent strengthened enough to overcome low level dry air.

Short term model guidance has hinted at the possibility of mid level

frontogenesis increasing across northern Arkansas and southern

Missouri over the next couple of hours, which could result in an

additional uptick in precipitation intensity heading into the

evening hours.

For areas along the greater I-44 and U.S. 60 corridors,

precipitation has either changed over entirely to snow, or will very

shortly. Once that transition takes place, precip should, for the

most part, remain all snow through the remainder of the event.

While snow across this area should remain fairly light through the

evening hours, it will likely have impacts on the evening rush hour

given cold ground and air temps. Would expect to see a dusting to

two inches of snow accumulation by mid to late evening.

For the remainder of the afternoon across southern and south central

Missouri, a mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain will remain

possible, with precipitation transitioning to a mix of sleet and

snow, and then all snow by late evening. Accumulations will remain

fairly light through evening across this area as well, but impacts

to travel will certainly continue through the evening drive home.

By mid evening, we should see a lull in precipitation, especially

north of U.S. 60, and at the very least a decrease in intensity

further south. By midnight or so, another wave of precipitation

will begin to overspread the area. By this point, expect to see all

snow for the vast majority of the CWA. The only exception may be

the far southeastern corner, where a mix of snow and sleet will be

possible for a few hours before finally changing over. This snow

should continue into mid day Friday, before clearing from west to

east.

Tonight`s snow still looks to be the more significant in terms of

accumulations, given good lift and rather high snow to liquid

ratios. When all is said and done, am still expecting to see

snowfall of 1 to 3 inches north of I-44, a gradient of 3

to 6 inches of snow across the great I-44 corridor, and then 4 to 8

inches of snow across southern and south central Missouri. Given

dry air to our north and continued north winds, there will probably

be a fairly sharp gradient to snowfall along and just north of

I-44.

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Been mostly sleet here all day so far, sometimes some zr mixing in. Haven't seen anything extremely heavy though yet. Roads are wet for the most part but theres accidents just everywhere on 540!!! Im staying put, people drive like freakin maniacs here lol. I feel like Im on the east coast again haha. Temp is about 24.5 degrees.

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The back edge of the steadier precip from "round one" is now in sight here for Central OK.  I would guess we have an hour or two of steady stuff left.  The models are still pretty gung ho on a "round two" coming later tonight, but I have to admit that I am not very impressed with the radar returns upstream (of OKC, that is...points east have a lot more coming from round one which will seemingly dovetail right into round two for them).  There looks to be some hit-and-miss type showers to our southwest, but nothing as organized or as substantial as what is going through now.     

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The back edge of the steadier precip from "round one" is now in sight here for Central OK.  I would guess we have an hour or two of steady stuff left.  The models are still pretty gung ho on a "round two" coming later tonight, but I have to admit that I am not very impressed with the radar returns upstream (of OKC, that is...points east have a lot more coming from round one which will seemingly dovetail right into round two for them).  There looks to be some hit-and-miss type showers to our southwest, but nothing as organized or as substantial as what is going through now.     

 

HRRR has round 2 moving into the OKC area... probably after 9-10 PM. 

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