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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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12z NAM continues to play catch up bringing more precip back to the NW, chasing the Euro.

 

That is good news, too!  The NAM's persistent efforts to keep the heavier precip further south than everybody else... even as the start time was getting darn close... was making me nervous. 

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What's the difference in this map and another one you can run titled "Surface Snow Depth"?  The later looks way more impressive than this one. 

 

Not sure. I know the IWM Total Snowfall map uses Kuchera's method (same as the 'clown' maps)

 

It looks like the Snow depth map is plotting all precipitation that has fallen with the temp below 32. 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

953 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THIS

MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS AT/BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN. OVER

EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...A MORE OF A

SLEET WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN. IN NORTHEAST

OKLAHOMA...SOME SNOW GRAINS MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET HAVE BEEN

REPORTED.

WINTRY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE CWA LATE THIS

MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE REMAINS ACROSS

SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AS THE MID LEVEL

WARM LAYER IS DEEPEST AND HANGS ON LONGEST. OVER EAST CENTRAL

OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE OF

A SLEET WITH A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR NORTHEAST

OKLAHOMA...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOCATIONS

ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 BECOMING ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE PRECIP...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 25

MPH RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING. THE WINDS SHOULD

CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE STRONGER

WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOME

MORE 10 TO NEAR 20 MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS PRECIP

TOTALS CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE...THESE WINDS COULD HELP TO START TO

CREATE ISSUES WITH POWER OUTAGES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST HOURLY WEATHER/WIND GRIDS BASED

ON LATEST OBS. ALSO TWEAKED HIGH TEMP GRIDS AS TEMPS SHOULD NOT

CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME DROPPING

TEMPS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FOR NOW

HAVE LEFT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AS IS AND UPPED ICE AMOUNTS FOR

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY A FEW

HUNDREDTHS. THE REST OF THE ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING

WELL AT THIS TIME.

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SGF mid morning update:

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Precipitation is quickly expanding across south central Missouri
this morning as a strong upper level jet increases in strength
across the Central Plains.  In the low levels, the 12Z SGF upper air
sounding sampled a strong warm layer centered at 775 MB, where
temperatures were measured at 6C.  From 850 MB to the surface, a
deep, very cold layer of air was in place.

That deep layer of cold air in the low levels has and will continue to
rapidly expand south through the remainder of the CWA by later this
afternoon (if not earlier).  Without any significant warm air
advection occurring, expect to see the warm layer aloft also erode
rather quickly from north to south.
  Light snow observed at the WFO
within the last 30 minutes suggests that the warm nose has already
eroded for areas along and north of I-44.

As a result, the window of opportunity for freezing rain will likely
come to an end fairly quickly today, as the low level cold air
quickly becomes deep enough for refreezing of melted hydrometeors,
resulting in sleet.  With time, precipitation will then mix with and
change over to snow as the warm layer aloft cools to below
freezing.


Far south central Missouri will have the relative best chance at
freezing rain into the early afternoon hours, but even there, have
trimmed back ice amounts to below a tenth of an inch.  Have
increased snow accumulations by a bit (half to one inch in general)
across far southern and south central Missouri as well, given the
anticipation of a shorter duration of freezing rain and sleet.

Further north, along the I-44 corridor, the forecast remains tricky
as far as snow accumulations are concerned.  North winds continue to
advect in dry air at the surface (9F dewpoint depression at SGF as
of 9 AM), which will likely limit snowfall the further north that
one goes.  In addition, that dry air will also result in a very
sharp gradient in snowfall; the challenge is determining exactly
where that cutoff will be.

Right now, latest indications are that the gradient will be right
along I-44 in many spots. 
In fact, the latest storm total snowfall
forecast has a difference of about 3 inches from southeast to
northwest across Greene County.  Of note, it still appears that for
areas north of U.S. 60, the majority of expected snowfall will
arrive tonight with the next wave of precipitation.


 

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Are we looking to get more snow and Pl with this or ZR ???? also JoMo what is your opinion about power outage here in Joplin with this sir ???

 

Snow, and we won't have power outages here.... other than the usual daily Empire outage.

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 That sharp gradient along I-44 makes me a bit nervous. Who knows where it will actually set up. Morning trends are keeping most precip south of hwy 60.

 

The first round was always pretty meh and was supposed to be sleet. The second stronger round tonight is where we pile the snow up. But with that being said, the dry northerly fetch has screwed us over before. 

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This early batch of precip is having a heck of a time overcoming the ridiculously dry air in Central OK.  Dewpoints are in the single digits here and everytime it looks like some light precip is getting close, it dries right up.  We've seen the occasional drop of freezing rain so far but that is about it. 

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Pretty sure round one is going to overperform all the way to round two.

 

Not here.  lol.  We've barely had a drop of anything hit the ground so far.  Hopefully, "round one" will serve to saturate the atmosphere enough so "round two" doesn't dry up down here, too. 

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Not here. lol. We've barely had a drop of anything hit the ground so far. Hopefully, "round one" will serve to saturate the atmosphere enough so "round two" doesn't dry up down here, too.

Saturation is getting better fairly quickly. Changeover to sleet in last 5 minutes. Things will be cranking up rather quickly from here.

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