OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

[KBPPradmet11]

Looks like Norman will be popping off some Winter Storm Warnings around 11am.  Not sure if everyone in the watch area will be upgraded, however, I'd say generally south and east of I44 is a rather safe bet at this point. 

 

EDIT*** Winter Storm Warnings now up for OKC Metro Area southward.

[NJ_Ken]

Norman just upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings.  It looks like almost all of their CWA is in the warning area with advisories only for their far northwest counties.  For the area well south of I-44 (including Ada and Ardmore) the warning is for freezing rain and sleet with accretion of up to 1/2" possible.  North of that, the warning is for freezing rain during the day tomorrow and then the possibility of 3" to 6" of snow and sleet Thursday night into Friday.  

 

Personally, I am still nervous because even tiny shifts in that heavy snow band or the snow/sleet line could easily put parts of Central Oklahoma (and my own backyard) on the outside looking in.

 

EDIT:  I was just looking at the hourly observations at Wiley Post airport (on the north side of OKC).  As of the 6 am observation, the temperature/dewpoint were 43/39 F.  As of the 10 am observation, they were 37/28 F.  In other words, the air is already cold and getting colder by the hour.  Now, bring on the precip!         

[JoMo]

Doug's update:

 

Good late morning. Here is an update for you. I haven't changed my thinking to much from my early morning blog. However, I am able to pinpoint things down a little better as we get closer to this event. The arctic front is rolling through and temperatures will drop into the upper 20s later tonight. Batch 1 will push through tomorrow. This looks to be mainly along and south of I-44. This will be mainly late morning and through the afternoon. So by Thursday evening here is what I am expecting on amounts.
North of I-44: Flurries to a dusting
Along I-44 including the Joplin metro: Dusting to 1/2"
SW MO-NE OK (South of I-44): 1-3"
NW AR (Benton Co.): 3-4"

Batch 2 rolls in late Thursday night and through the day on Friday. It will take a similar track as batch 1 but a little farther north and west. This should be out by Friday evening. So here is what I expect for storm totals by Friday evening.
Fredonia-Chanute-Yates Center-Iola-Ft. Scott-Nevada (and towns near these locations): about 1/2"
Independence-Parsons-Chetopa-Pittsburg-Larmar-Stockton (and towns near these locations): around 1"
Near I-44 (including Miami and the Joplin metro): 1-2"
SW MO-NE OK (South of I-44): 2-5"
NW AR (Benton Co): 5-7"

We get a break on Saturday, but another system late Saturday night and Sunday pushes through. This system looks to give us a widespread 2-4" of snow.
Doug

[MoWeatherguy]

12z GFS shifted a bit back to the south and somewhat less amounts in this region. GGEM looks pretty similar best I can tell.

[MoWeatherguy]

Actually lines up pretty well with Doug's update above.

[The Waterboy]

Does that map through 66H just cover "Round 1"? 

[JoMo]

Does that map through 66H just cover "Round 1"? 

 

Nope, whole event.

[MoWeatherguy]

Curious to see Euro totals from 12z. See if it mirrors this closely or not.

[ouamber]

Love those Canadians:)

[JoMo]

00z Euro "Snow" numbers. (remember, probably not all snow)

 

Chanute, KS:  3.0"

Bartlesville, OK: 5.8"

OKC: 5.3-6.5"

Tulsa: 5.9-6.2"

Joplin: 6.0"

Monett: 7.0"

Springfield: 6.7"

NW Arkansas area:  Anywhere from 7" in the north to 11.5" in the south

Ft. Smith: 12.7"

Little Rock: 3.2"

 

 

12z Euro "Snow" numbers... (went south)

 

Chanute, KS:  0.6"

Bartlesville, OK: 2.3"

OKC:  Around 6"

Tulsa: 5.1-6.2"

Joplin: 3.7"

Monett: 5.2"

Springfield: 4.2" 

NW Arkansas area:  6-6.3"

Ft. Smith: Looks like 6.6" but might be 8.6"

Little Rock: 5.4-6.x"

[The Waterboy]

Cold front just came through Bentonville/Rogers in the last half hour.

[ouamber]

OUCH on the NAM...Tulsa, Joplin, NW AR..left out on the fringes. While pushing it further east and laying a bomb over NE AR/SE MO..crazy! I can't believe there is still so much movement with this storm only a day away. Headache for forecasters for sure!

[Wx 24/7]

NAM screws SW MO.

[ouamber]

I think the Euro has ultimately been the most consistent.  The NWS TSA up totals for us all. 

[Spot]

I think the Euro has ultimately been the most consistent.  The NWS TSA up totals for us all. 

 

 

HA!  They have me in the Jackpot area 24+ hrs away... not good. And with the models still not coming together it has to make forecaster heads spin.

[ArkieOkie]

Ice Storm Warning replacing Winter Storm Warning for several counties. In Arkansas: Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian. In Oklahoma: Choctaw, LeFlore, Pushmataha, Sequoyah.

[NJ_Ken]

HA!  They have me in the Jackpot area 24+ hrs away... not good. And with the models still not coming together it has to make forecaster heads spin.

 

I agree regarding the difficulty of this forecast.  On one hand, it is pretty clear that there will be a narrow band of fairly heavy snow running across Oklahoma and into Arkansas and Missouri.  However, based on recent model output, I suspect that throwing darts at a map might be just as accurate at placing that band than any of the models are.  Moreover, since the band is likely to be narrow, even a 20-mile shift is going to mean massive differences in individual backyards, and, lets face it, that is all anybody cares about.  They don't want to hear the Met they most trust telling them that the heavy snow predicted for their backyard actually fell 10 or 20 miles away.  

[LocoAko]

I agree regarding the difficulty of this forecast.  On one hand, it is pretty clear that there will be a narrow band of fairly heavy snow running across Oklahoma and into Arkansas and Missouri.  However, based on recent model output, I suspect that throwing darts at a map might be just as accurate at placing that band than any of the models are.  Moreover, since the band is likely to be narrow, even a 20-mile shift is going to mean massive differences in individual backyards, and, lets face it, that is all anybody cares about.  They don't want to hear the Met they most trust telling them that the heavy snow predicted for their backyard actually fell 10 or 20 miles away.

Yep.

Though from a personal standpoint, I'm cringing more at the string of teen and single-digit lows coming our way for the foreseeable future.

[JoMo]

18z GFS is better than the  18z NAM and 12z GFS for up here as it drops about 3" or so. 

[ouamber]

I am sticking to what the WPC and NWS people are saying.  They know more than me.  Here is WPC showing probabilities of seeing snow greater than 2 inches.

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=72&ptype=snow

[MoWeatherguy]

That WPC does look good.  I'm gonna stick with the Euro instead of all the waffle headaches of these American models.

[JoMo]

From Springfield's discussion... niiiice.

 

 

 

Will need to
watch the Thursday night/Friday morning snow carefully for the
potential for higher accumulations that what is currently forecast,
given the potential for much higher than usual snow to liquid ratios
due to the very cold temperatures. For this forecast, generally
used a 13:1-17:1 ratio, depending in temperature. In addition to
SLR issues, cross sections indicate the potential for some lower
static stability and possible development of slantwise convection,
especially if an axis of mid level frontogenesis develops far enough
north to tap into the CSI.

[The Waterboy]

What's the best website to use to see the GFS/NAM model runs and snowfall?  Twisterdata kinda sucks in my opinion. 

[MoWeatherguy]

Was just about to mention that. Definitely something to watch if we can get the instability here.

[westhope84]

Starting to think that this event may over-perform for some of us. Who knows where the axis will set up, but I wouldn't be surprised to see models get a better grip tonight.

[JoMo]

What's the best website to use to see the GFS/NAM model runs and snowfall?  Twisterdata kinda sucks in my opinion. 

I like Twisterdata since you can see all the temps better and it's in an easier format. 

 

Wxcaster is where the "clown" snow maps are but they are often slow to come out.

 

http://wxcaster.com/conus_snowfall.htm

 

 

The radar site overlays are on this page if you can navigate through the awful layout.

http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm

 

 

But if you want speed... You can't beat: 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

 

Just be prepared to squint. 

[JoMo]

Tulsa finally got to their AFD:

 

 

 

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS ONE OR MORE BANDS OF MODERATE
PRECIP SET UP FROM SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA UP INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DUE TO INCREASING LOW-MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO
THE NORTHWEST OF WHERE THIS MAIN BAND SETS UP...SUCH THAT AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-44 MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANY PRECIP DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMP PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN IN SE OK AND W CNTRL
AR...TRANSITIONING TO FZRA DURING THE DAY AS THE SUB- FREEZING AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THIS AREA. SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE DAY ACROSS EAST CNTRL AND SOUTHEAST OK OVER INTO WEST
CNTRL AR TO THE NORTHWEST OF HERE...I.E...E CNTRL AND NE OK AND NW
AR...A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX TO START...BECOMING
PREDOMINANTLY SLEET. IF LIGHT PRECIP DOES INDEED FALL TO THE NORTH
OF I-44...THAT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW IF ANYTHING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE KS BORDER.

THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A NICE MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP IN
ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...SHOWING UP NICELY AS A BAND OF HIGHER QPF
FROM EAST CENTRAL OK INTO NORTHWEST AR. BY THIS TIME...TEMP
PROFILES FAVOR SLEET AND SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL
AR...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL ORGANIZE FROM
NORTHERN TX UP INTO WEST CENTRAL AR. TEMP PROFILES FROM THE
NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT THE WARM LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ICE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT...WITH A CHANGE OVER
TO SLEET LATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR FINALLY GETS
DEEP ENOUGH. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MAJOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND EVEN THE POWER GRID. FOR
THIS REASON...THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED OR
UPGRADED TO AN ICE STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING...SNOW OR SLEET WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
WEATHER TYPES...AND THE ICE STORM WARNING CAN BE CHANGED BACK TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING IF NEEDED AT THAT TIME. THE QG LIFT SHUTS OFF
RAPIDLY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCORDINGLY END
AS WELL FOR THE MOST PART FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

[David Reimer]

What's the best website to use to see the GFS/NAM model runs and snowfall?  Twisterdata kinda sucks in my opinion. 

 

www.weatherbell.com

[JoMo]

www.weatherbell.com

 

Indeed, but this is a pay site. If anyone is interested in checking it out..... They do have a 7 day trial available before they charge you. If you cancel before the 7 days is up, they won't charge your card.

 

It is $19.99 a month or $185 a year...... but if you use the referral code "EPAWA".... They will credit $7 back to your card after you pay for the first month... or $20 back to your card if you pay for a year.

 

You get NAM/GFS/GEM/CFS v2(and their Ensembles)... but the big draw is probably the 6 hour Euro data and the Euro Ensembles. I could spend all day looking at different maps. 

[JoMo]

18z GFS Precip Type Total Accumulation map......  Sleet on the upper left... Freezing rain on upper right... Snow on bottom right, and rain on bottom left. You can create a 10:1 snow map by converting the QPF on the snow map..... 0.4" = 4" snow...