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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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That's a plus for you all down there. 

 

Check the NAM extracted data for your area and see what the temps look like at each level. I would probably be all snow this run (slight chance of sleet at the start) as the column is below zero.  Only 0.23" of precip though after it gets cold enough. 

 

http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm

Thanks!

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Just starting here in a few minutes.

Cool. Just for fun does anyone want to take a guess at some water equivalents for the upcoming snow? I'm wondering if the colder air during the second round of precipitation can bring them to a high enough ratio to offset loss due to sleet/freezing rain in the first round.

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00z Euro "Snow" numbers. (remember, probably not all snow)

 

Chanute, KS:  3.0"

Bartlesville, OK: 5.8"

OKC: 5.3-6.5"

Tulsa: 5.9-6.2"

Joplin: 6.0"

Monett: 7.0"

Springfield: 6.7"

NW Arkansas area:  Anywhere from 7" in the north to 11.5" in the south

Ft. Smith: 12.7"

Little Rock: 3.2"

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00z Euro "Snow" numbers. (remember, probably not all snow)

Chanute, KS: 3.0"

Bartlesville, OK: 5.8"

OKC: 5.3-6.5"

Tulsa: 5.9-6.2"

Joplin: 6.0"

Monett: 7.0"

Springfield: 6.7"

NW Arkansas area: Anywhere from 7" in the north to 11.5" in the south

Ft. Smith: 12.7"

Little Rock: 3.2"

Thank you. Looks pretty awesome for me at this time. On that note will give it a rest til morning. I'm so close to actually being incredibly excited about this. Lol. One more day......

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Thank you. Looks pretty awesome for me at this time. On that note will give it a rest til morning. I'm so close to actually being incredibly excited about this. Lol. One more day......

 

Just keep in mind that sleet will drastically cut down on those totals. And that's just the Euro estimation, but it does have more QPF farther north. 

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Just keep in mind that sleet will drastically cut down on those totals. And that's just the Euro estimation, but it does have more QPF farther north.

Hey, even if totals are cut in half I'll still be pretty satisfied. I'm thinking the sleet is probably around a 3:1 equivalent. Still not thinking there will be much ice here. (40ish W of Fayetteville, AR.) I'll be happy with my 5-7 inch sleet/snow combo. :-)

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After digging around a bit more, I think WxBell Euro maps use a standard 10:1 snow ratio. Looking at 850 MB temps, they are -5 for Joplin on the Euro before the heaviest precip starts and they don't rise, so the Euro is probably thinking everything we get here is snow. It drops 0.6" of QPF and has 6.0" of snowfall..... Looking upstream a bit to Chanute, KS.... It has 850 MB temps of -8 before the precip starts.... QPF of 0.3" and 3" of snowfall.

 

If we look a bit farther south where 850 temps are above freezing when precip starts... Ft. Smith has 850 MB temps of +4..... QPF is 1.7" with 12.7" of that being snow..... If it was seeing it as all snow, it should be 17" of course.

 

Another example is Fayetteville (or close to there) 850 MB temps are +1 when the precip starts..... QPF is 1.4" and snowfall is 11.5"

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After digging around a bit more, I think WxBell Euro maps use a standard 10:1 snow ratio. Looking at 850 MB temps, they are -5 for Joplin on the Euro before the precip starts and they don't rise, so the Euro is probably thinking everything we get here is snow. It drops 0.6" of QPF and has 6.0" of snowfall..... Looking upstream a bit to Chanute, KS.... It has 850 MB temps of -8 before the precip starts.... QPF of 0.3" and 3" of snowfall.

If we look a bit farther south where 850 temps are above freezing when precip starts... Ft. Smith has 850 MB temps of +4..... QPF is 1.7" with 12.7" of that being snow..... If it was seeing it as all snow, it should be 17" of course.

Another example is Fayetteville (or close to there) 850 MB temps are +1 when the precip starts..... QPF is 1.4" and snowfall is 11.5"

Yeah, I knew the standard was 10:1 but I know the ratio can vary wildly at times in real world examples even during a solid snow event. Just trying to use temp profiles, wind, moisture, etc to make an educated guess. Probably pointless but its interesting to try to figure it out.

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Getting pretty excited for the first event of the season!! NAM and GFS snowmaps are painting 6-12" for Fayetteville area. I bet we see 5-8" out of this. Just hope ZR/PL are kept to a minimum as I need to get thesis work done. :snowwindow:

Maybe I'll bring some good luck to the area lol? Not sure how much snow you guys usually get here but this seems like it could be alot for this area. Im actually getting excited too now!

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Maybe I'll bring some good luck to the area lol? Not sure how much snow you guys usually get here but this seems like it could be alot for this area. Im actually getting excited too now!

 

I'm from outside of Philadelphia, PA so I am not too familiar with NW Arkansas' winter snow totals, but I think I read somewhere they average 8". Getting close to the average in one storm is a rather big deal.

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As of this moment, NWS Norman is sticking with Winter Storm Watches for Central Oklahoma, while Tulsa went over to Winter Storm Warnings this morning.  I don't blame them at all.  Central Oklahoma is "on the edge" on several levels.  Not only is there a definite question as to exactly where the sleet/snow line will be later Thursday into Friday, but the OUN CWA is also on the western edge of where the heavier precip is likely (at least I hope it is likely) to fall.  A fairly narrow band like that is difficult to pin down even as the event gets close.  Personally, I won't be truly confident here until I can see that band on radar.  

 

EDIT:  By the way, the front appears to have passed through OKC between 5 and 6 am.  Temps and dewpoints are now dropping.  Unless we get some very bright sunshine this morning, I suspect that we have already seen our high temperature for the day. 

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