okie333 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Time for a new thread. Energy in the SW is developing into a major winter storm on the last two NAM runs. Looks like it could be a nasty ice storm for those just south of the snow line, especially with these winds. Time for a new thread. Energy in the SW is developing into a major winter storm on the last two NAM runs. Looks like it could be a nasty ice storm for those just south of the snow line, especially with these winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well that's... strange. Is the NAM the only model showing this? GFS is rolling in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I would love for the NAM to be correct, but earlier this week it was showing a sleet storm for OKC today, and that certainly is not happening. Let's see what the GooFuS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The Euro actually shows some snow across the region by Monday as well so this may be a legit threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The Euro actually shows some snow across the region by Monday as well so this may be a legit threat. Yeah some of the 06 GFS members had it as well. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Yeah some of the 06 GFS members had it as well. Interesting. The operational doesnt seem to want any part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 Good news: 12Z GFS doesn't show ice for this area, also trending towards a bit of snow. Bad news: The snow is about 1-2" or so instead of 12+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Small streak on the 12z. Better for OK and TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The GFS has starting trending in a better direction so I take this as a positive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Wow!! Could Tulsa actually pull some snow out of this storm?? I sure hope so!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Don't think the GGEM shows anything interesting either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I'm always amazed at how different the NAM and GFS are at 3-4 days. If memory serves me correctly this was typical last year and the NAM/Euro ended up being more accurate this far out. The GFS would finally come around 24-48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 About an hour until the Euro starts so we can see if the NAM is just being the NAM or if there is a chance of an actual storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 About an hour until the Euro starts so we can see if the NAM is just being the NAM or if there is a chance of an actual storm. The NAM may be an outlier for now, but I would argue the H5 trends on the GFS toward its solution (more energy hanging back longer) were rather pronounced and noteworthy. SREF indicates amounts roughly comparable to the 12z GFS, as well. In all honesty, I'd love for something fairly close to the GFS to verify, just slightly wetter. The NAM is so wrapped up that I think most of us would be battling the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 12z GFS Ensembles. 72hrs 84 hrs: 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I see the GGEM holds the energy back longer, then brings it out at the 108-132 timeframe as probably snow across 1/2 of this area. EDIT: Euro is out, looks like a light snow event for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 NWS Tulsa has their first guess out with 2-4" in about the northern half of their area. Also has a special weather statement out. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/dsp/dsp.php?county=ALL&showAll=0&refresh=5&width=770 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 NWS Tulsa has their first guess out with 2-4" in about the northern half of their area. Also has a special weather statement out. http://www.srh.noaa....esh=5&width=770 Well, if you get snow, then you know it has to be wrong. 18z NAM coming in now... This map is snowfall estimated to fall and not on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Bring that about 40-50 miles south would be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Bring that about 40-50 miles south would be much better. No no, it's fine where it's at. Joplin would be in the bullseye Tulsa sounds like they are getting excited for at least some kind of frozen precip in their AFD. http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=TSA&StateCode=OK&SafeCityName=Tulsa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Do you really want to be in the bullseye this far out? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Do you really want to be in the bullseye this far out? lol Ah man, that's true. Needs to be farther south like you said. Probably a lot farther south, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 No no, it's fine where it's at. Joplin would be in the bullseye Tulsa sounds like they are getting excited for at least some kind of frozen precip in their AFD. http://www.wundergro...eCityName=Tulsa Indeed NWS Tulsa is really going strong with this already. Wouldn't be to surprised to see them issue adv or watches in the next day if trends keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 We are still working the kinks out, but we do have a storm thread for this one. I am going to split it off into a new thread here soon. I will link it here shortly. We would love it folks were willing to interact in the main storm threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 We are still working the kinks out, but we do have a storm thread for this one. I am going to split it off into a new thread here soon. I will link it here shortly. We would love it folks were willing to interact in the main storm threads I dunno, that has always resulted in confusion before. Someone says "it's coming farther north" and they mean it's coming farther north in their area but it's actually farther south in ours or vice-versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I dunno, that has always resulted in confusion before. Someone says "it's coming farther north" and they mean it's coming farther north in their area but it's actually farther south in ours or vice-versa. http://www.americanw...mber-4-6-storm/ Shouldn't be confusion here since it is a dedicated storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Springfield has a nice write up as well. Seems they are concerned with the shallow layer of arctic air producing freezing rain. http://www.wundergro...ame=Springfield Wichita: ADDITIONALLY...NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ON MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGHING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD FLIRT WITH FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER...MODEL CONTINUITY HAS BEEN RATHER POOR WITH THIS FEATURE...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FURTHERMORE...THINKING THE NAM MODEL IS A GROSS OUTLIER...PAINTING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. ALL-IN-ALL...THIS PERIOD CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B.Sebo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It appears the trend is a little farther south in the latest NAM run. Whatever it is, I either want it to be farther south or north because I do not want to be in that Ice zone that I am in now. But you guys know my winter mantra . . . "never trust the NAM." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It appears the trend is a little farther south in the latest NAM run. Whatever it is, I either want it to be farther south or north because I do not want to be in that Ice zone that I am in now. But you guys know my winter mantra . . . "never trust the NAM." Hey good to see you back! And the NAM at 18z did get colder. Interested to see what they put out at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It appears the trend is a little farther south in the latest NAM run. Whatever it is, I either want it to be farther south or north because I do not want to be in that Ice zone that I am in now. But you guys know my winter mantra . . . "never trust the NAM." Hey Sebo! I never trust the NAM no matter what season, lol Eagerly awaiting the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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