earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Certainly needs to hurry at 105 hours, and the trough is much further east than 18z and more progressive. There's also a big closed shortwave over the Great Lakes which is going to kill us this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Weird look at 96 hours, definitely some big changes compared to 18z. The flow over the east has recovered, but the trough axis is further east in general. It's going to take a quick recovery or this will be a close but not quite there type run. I know I'm beating a dead horse here, but isn't that what we want at this range? A close but no cigar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 850 temps definitely warmer at BWI at 84 vs. 90 on 18Z its coming again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Smiley face at H5 at 114 hours, and it's looking at all of us saying "snow is coming". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 There's still a closed shortwave over Northern New England at 120 hrs, I don't think this is going to come up the coast until that is gone (this is the first run ive seen it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 really starting to amplify. this looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Smiley face at H5 at 114 hours, and it's looking at all of us saying "snow is coming". LOL - Still smiling at 123. Not sure if it is all coming together too late though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 As expected the confluence is going to end up biting us...this was a pretty big development even earlier in the run. This is going to escape just east, but the H5 depiction is very, very close to bringing a significant coastal storm up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 whiff to the east this run, but a bit better than 12z. not the worst development, i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Per DT on the radio show, the precip gets up to PA, so not a complete miss. Not bad for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 There's still a closed shortwave over Northern New England at 120 hrs, I don't think this is going to come up the coast until that is gone (this is the first run ive seen it). The difference is that in the 18Z that closed shortwave that came across the great lakes, gets captured by PV as the whole thing phases. This run, the shortwave escapes the phase, scoots east and reinforces the confluence over NNE. The phase with the southern energy just doesn't happen in earnest on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm very impressed with how much the southern stream shortwave amplified despite there being no phase. I think that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This storm is going to happen....I felt the same way about the 12/19 event last year at this range....I'd put it at 80% right now...call it more hunch than anything but I just feel it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This storm is going to happen....I felt the same way about the 12/19 event last year at this range....I'd put it at 80% right now...call it more hunch than anything but I just feel it Yeah im in this boat....not going to swan dive off the driscol each and every model run....pulling up the preciep chart for the 00z gfs it looks so much like last year...plus my b-day is on the 20th and for the last two years it loves to snow on that date....I feel alot of people are forcasting what can wrong and not what is going right.....to many people thinking la nina not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I hope not everyone jumps ship again and says it's not going to happen because this run didn't slam us. So far it seems the 06 and 18z gfs runs are more phased and amplified giving us a big hit while the 0z and 12z runs show a miss although if you base the 0z gfs off of the 12z gfs then it's trended in our favor. I'm not surprised that the models are waffling a bit, this is usually expected, I do think this will be our storm, just give it a couple more days and it'll show up much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Does anyone have a link to the UKMET? Rumor has it that its a bomb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 As expected the confluence is going to end up biting us...this was a pretty big development even earlier in the run. This is going to escape just east, but the H5 depiction is very, very close to bringing a significant coastal storm up the coast. It keeps getting closer and closer-- and the local tv mets are also talking about the possibilities of a coastal snowstorm this weekend. Tonight's snow is an awesome appetizer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This storm is going to happen....I felt the same way about the 12/19 event last year at this range....I'd put it at 80% right now...call it more hunch than anything but I just feel it That's much better than the 5% the NWS was talking about last night. I expect theyve revised their probabilities upwards also. The trend is our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yeah im in this boat....not going to swan dive off the driscol each and every model run....pulling up the preciep chart for the 00z gfs it looks so much like last year...plus my b-day is on the 20th and for the last two years it loves to snow on that date....I feel alot of people are forcasting what can wrong and not what is going right.....to many people thinking la nina not going to happen. But the thing is, you have to look for what can go wrong. There's a reason why NYC averages only 20 something inches of snow during the winter ... it's hard to get all the ingredients together in this area. You have to look for reasons why it will NOT snow, when trying to forecast. More often than not, things will go wrong. I feel good when I can discount most of the possible negatives. We're far from getting to that point with this potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Any news on GGEM or UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Any news on GGEM or UKMET? GGEM basically mocks the GFS. Looks similar to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Any news on GGEM or UKMET? ggem is like gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 But the thing is, you have to look for what can go wrong. There's a reason why NYC averages only 20 something inches of snow during the winter ... it's hard to get all the ingredients together in this area. You have to look for reasons why it will NOT snow, when trying to forecast. More often than not, things will go wrong. I feel good when I can discount most of the possible negatives. We're far from getting to that point with this potential event. Im not saying dont look at them....but also look at whats going right. I dont understand what nyc snowfall avg has to do with getting this storm......We have ingredients on the tabel for this......people who think it will show a hit each and every run 6 days out are foolish. Hearing 15% to 85% not happening gets a little repatitive......i understand the cause for concern,,,,,but models showing a close miss, is right where i want to be 6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 here is the ens mean, further support towards the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS,GGEM,KMA,Nogaps are all misses. Not a good night but we still have time for the models to trend in our favor once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Not feeling good about this storm folks, although we have a strong -NAO block in place, the pacific flow is going to kill the chances for this storm to turn up the coast. Expect the ECMWF to show a similiar solution to 12z..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS,GGEM,KMA,Nogaps are all misses. Not a good night but we still have time for the models to trend in our favor once again. Thats exaqctly where want it for a hit for i95 120-144 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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