earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looks like about a foot for NYC this run. Dude who cares how much its aweek away wow. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Here's a visual...enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Everyone throwing themselves off bridges did so prematurely... it was clear the storm hadn't disappeared, merely the ingredients had come together differently. I think we'll see much more agreement from the models starting around the 00z runs tomorrow night, but in the meantime they'll continue to flop. That being said... this run= Nik, glad to see you back posting good luck up there (or down here if you're out of school!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 3 out of 4 ain't bad for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Dude who cares how much its aweek away wow. Rossi i dont see why he can't post that, its just analyzing what the model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Probably 25-50 miles east/southeast of the benchmark at 153 hours Basically- A Long Island/Southern NE special.. Kinda like 12/19/09............. Maybe not as much (Eastern LI got 20"+) but - 12"+ (ON THIS MODEL RUN) - That would be a very nice christmas present for everyone on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Another increadable run brought to you by the 18Z GFS. I like the trends any more to the west and then it would be awsome from loads more people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 162 about 1.25-1.50 for boston and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The weenie in all of us is coming out..lol. Nice play by play. Lets hope we all get in on some action, but I advise all to not let hopes go out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 incoming from the west post hr 171? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Nik, glad to see you back posting good luck up there (or down here if you're out of school!) Up here for this storm, coming back to DC on the 21st for break! Last winter having two places paid off majorly, I saw 4 storms of over 10" with 3 having 20"+! (12/19, 20.5" in McLean, 2/5-6, 27" in McLean, 2/10, 10" in NYC, and 2/25, 20" in NYC!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 The weenie in all of us is coming out..lol. Nice play by play. Lets hope we all get in on some action, but I advise all to not let hopes go out of control. You can always count on the tightly packed 10m wind gradient maps on NCEP to bring out the weenie in us all...cheers. Long way to go with this one but the potential is bursting at the seams if you ask me. Something's got to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Up here for this storm, coming back to DC on the 21st for break! Last winter having two places paid off majorly, I saw 4 storms of over 10" with 3 having 20"+! (12/19, 20.5" in McLean, 2/5-6, 27" in McLean, 2/10, 10" in NYC, and 2/25, 20" in NYC!). don't forget to study for finals (sorry for OT folks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 here in NJ, you would want the low to be a tad more west (25-30 miles), but still near a foot this run for us. Can't wait for late night runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Deepens to a 971 mb near the Benchmark at 162 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Just to give you an idea, the GFS has 35-40kt 10m winds during the heavy snow on Long Island. So this run is probably a near blizzard along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 through 168 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 wow looking at the all evolved i thought that was going to be a late phase just offshore. That vortex really dug in at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 normally i'd say we're right where we want to be but it's a different year and a different setup. i think i-95 and east are where you'd want to be for this...hope i'm wrong but the setup won't allow for this thing to get too far west. I sure hope you're right. Don't need this thing to go so far west to bring rain to people like me in South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 You can always count on the tightly packed 10m wind gradient maps on NCEP to bring out the weenie in us all...cheers. Long way to go with this one but the potential is bursting at the seams if you ask me. Something's got to give. I agree it's loaded with potential. Perhaps I'm just snake bitten from last year..lol. I'm probably gonna wait to get this inside 96 hrs to really weenie out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 As Earthlight indicated- winds on Long Island are depicted to be pretty strong.. This QPF map reminds me of 12/19/09 - Eastern LI/Cape get the brunt of the storm.. NYC does well, but places just to the north and west - amts drop off a lot.. through 168 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Some serious UVV's involved with this system and the extend basically to the I-95 corridor from DCA to PHL..and then west of NYC into NE NJ and into SNE along a similar line. -9 or greater UVV's and an absolutely classic CCB and dryslot depiction at 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I think the important thing to take from today's runs is that all options are on the table. We have a possibility of a coastal plain runner if you believe the UKMET to a near hit if you believe other models. Since this is a delicate situation with the the timing of the shortwaves, I'd expect a lot of waffling until we get within 72 hours. But even then I would expect a wide range of solutions. Recall last year's 12/19 storm and how the models didn't accurately forecast the splitting of the PV until we got within 72 hours. Going to be a fun week for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 As Earthlight indicated- winds on Long Island are depicted to be pretty strong.. This QPF map reminds me of 12/19/09 - Eastern LI/Cape get the brunt of the storm.. NYC does well, but places just to the north and west - amts drop off a lot.. yes its almost too eerily similar. PV breaking off into a STJ s/w, tight qpf cut-off I-95 cities west. Deja vu huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 wow looking at the all evolved i thought that was going to be a late phase just offshore. That vortex really dug in at the last minute. Trace back and notice the energy that comes out of the rockies earlier in the run. This energy was not there on the 12z run thanks to the bigger ridge out west. This energy is key as it digs into the trough base and amplifies things further east. We will have to watch carefully---but I like the trends in general amongst all the models including the PV retrograde this run which was pretty impressive despite a late start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Some serious UVV's involved with this system and the extend basically to the I-95 corridor from DCA to PHL..and then west of NYC into NE NJ and into SNE along a similar line. -9 or greater UVV's and an absolutely classic CCB and dryslot depiction at 144 hrs. can you explain this to me earthlight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I still can't believe this is what? 5 days out from developing? Talk about biting nails... Tonight's run is going to be interesting b/c lastnight's 00z run was CLASSIC.. If tonite's GFS 00z and the Euro come in with somethng similar to this 18z GFS, this board is going to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Some serious UVV's involved with this system and the extend basically to the I-95 corridor from DCA to PHL..and then west of NYC into NE NJ and into SNE along a similar line. -9 or greater UVV's and an absolutely classic CCB and dryslot depiction at 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 The surface low came out of Northern Florida this run and still heavily impacted our area--that is very rare and I would be shocked if we saw something like that come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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