Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 January 8th as well http://www.meteo.psu...2010/us0108.php big storm? That looks kinda weak with a positively tilted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I noticed Mt. Holly is going with a 30% pop for Sat night thru Sunday night. Upton has no mention of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 big storm? That looks kinda weak with a positively tilted trough Since when was this thread supposed to be about busts from last winter (that really weren't busts, rather long-range progs that never even made it into the mid-range...?) Reading about how 1/8/2010 was a "bust" is obnoxious when the topic at hand is the upcoming storm which has no relation to these past events. Regarding potential, I don't know why people are panicking--many people have already posted (all across the board, I don't know about this specific thread) the long-range output of the GFS for the events last winter, all of which were initially forecast to go significantly south, even below DC. I'd much rather have the GFS south and east at this time frame, and while last night's runs were exciting, I began feeling uneasy about a changeover as you do not want the GFS the farthest N&W out of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm sure OKX & Mt Holly will coordinate as the event (or non-event) draws closer. There has been increased coordination ever since the blizzard of '96 assessment report: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf I noticed Mt. Holly is going with a 30% pop for Sat night thru Sunday night. Upton has no mention of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 To me, the NAM looks like it's heading towards a surpressed solution. Not totally worth much, given it's reputation at this range, so I guess we can file that under "whatever" for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z ggem ens mean at hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 To me, the NAM looks like it's heading towards a surpressed solution. Not totally worth much, given it's reputation at this range, so I guess we can file that under "whatever" for now.. looks like there is more digging at h5 over the northern plains....much more so than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 looks like there is more digging at h5 over the northern plains....much more so than the GFS doesn't it also look like its maybe 6-12 hours ahead with the northern stream? Also I do like the ridging out ahead of the digging s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 looks like there is more digging at h5 over the northern plains....much more so than the GFS Yes--the GFS was really de-amplified, more so than any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yes--the GFS was really de-amplified, more so than any other model. you said something about ridging over the rockies or something...it did something weird with de-amplification with our last storm as well with a weird disturbance over pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I noticed Mt. Holly is going with a 30% pop for Sat night thru Sunday night. Upton has no mention of precip. Mt Holly AFD out. THURSDAY'S CLIPPER IN THE UNDERCARD FOR THIS FORECAST. A POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE MAIN EVENT. FOR THURSDAY, MODELS HAVE BEEN INCHING NORTH WITH THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS AFTERNOON'S GRIDS REFLECT THAT IDEA WITH LIGHT SNOW UP TO ABOUT WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. FOR THE WEEKEND, THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS RUNS BOTH SUPPLY THE REGION WITH A BIG-TIME WINTER EVENT. THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF ARE MUCH FURTHER SUPPRESSED AND ONLY PROVIDE SNOW LOVERS WITH HOPES AND DREAMS. THE GEM IS ALSO SUPPRESSED, BUT STILL BRUSHES SOME OF THE AREA WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. ADMITTEDLY, THE O6Z GEFS KIND OF TAKES THE AVERAGE OF THE ABOVE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLONE...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE JUST CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. AS FAR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE SOUTH AND EASTERN ZONES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH BOTH THE CLIPPER AND POSSIBLE WEEKEND COASTAL EVENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TEENS AND 20S WILL BE REAL COMMON DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 20S AND 30S FOR HIGHS...BASICALLY A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL READINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 just an fyi - NOAA's updated AFD .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --THE 00Z ECMWF WAS USED TO CONSTRUCT THINGS THROUGH ABOUT DAY FOUR. A TRANSITION WAS THEN MADE TOWARD THE 06Z GEFS MEAN. WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER, THE ONE THING THAT`S PRETTY CONSISTENT IS THE SUPPRESSED POLAR JET ACROSS THE NATION. THURSDAY`S CLIPPER IN THE UNDERCARD FOR THIS FORECAST. A POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE MAIN EVENT. FOR THURSDAY, MODELS HAVE BEEN INCHING NORTH WITH THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS AFTERNOON`S GRIDS REFLECT THAT IDEA WITH LIGHT SNOW UP TO ABOUT WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. FOR THE WEEKEND, THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS RUNS BOTH SUPPLY THE REGION WITH A BIG-TIME WINTER EVENT. THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF ARE MUCH FURTHER SUPPRESSED AND ONLY PROVIDE SNOW LOVERS WITH HOPES AND DREAMS. THE GEM IS ALSO SUPPRESSED, BUT STILL BRUSHES SOME OF THE AREA WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. ADMITTEDLY, THE O6Z GEFS KIND OF TAKES THE AVERAGE OF THE ABOVE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLONE...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE JUST CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. AS FAR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE SOUTH AND EASTERN ZONES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH BOTH THE CLIPPER AND POSSIBLE WEEKEND COASTAL EVENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TEENS AND 20S WILL BE REAL COMMON DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 20S AND 30S FOR HIGHS...BASICALLY A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL READINGS.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 damn Robb beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 doesn't it also look like its maybe 6-12 hours ahead with the northern stream? Also I do like the ridging out ahead of the digging s/w yeah, its definitely quicker (like the EC?).....i was gonna make mention about the ridging out ahead of the digging shortwave.... I actually like the 84HR NAM panels....but its the 84HR NAM, Kinda has the look of a potential miller b, no??? Maybe im crazy, but it looks like it wants to phase earlier but the 50/50 wont let it cut up....i dont have the charts to extrapolate....does anyone have the extended nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yes--the GFS was really de-amplified, more so than any other model. Can't wait to see the 18z gfs. It will be interesting to see if corrects itself and trends back towards its 00z and 06z solutions. I'm a tad suprised to see Mt. Holly playing it conservative at this point when they are usually alot quicker to jump on board in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Well, the 18z DGEX for the little that it's worth, is similar to the Euro but the look aloft is not bad. It does give our area some light snow but the surface low is offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 You can check the big time amplification trend even on the DGEX since 06z, here.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex500mbHGHTNA096.gif 06z http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/06zdgex500mbHGHTNA108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 You can check the big time amplification trend even on the DGEX since 06z, here.. http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA096.gif 06z http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA108.gif john, should we start model threads to talk bout the different models so we don't clutter this up or do you want it here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 You can check the big time amplification trend even on the DGEX since 06z, here.. http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA096.gif 06z http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA108.gif Thats a nice trend, although the DGEX is (usually) trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 john, should we start model threads to talk bout the different models so we don't clutter this up or do you want it here? Just as an experiment for this storm, lets try and keep all the regional storm discussion in this thread regarding this upcoming storm. This thread can be used for local model discussion and storm discussion/analogs/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Although in any La Nina, having a solution unfold as the 0z and 06z gfs have shown is very rare, this may be that one case where the typical climatology of the ENSO state gets trumped by the ideal state of the West Based -NAO block. The block is so strong and perfectly placed that it allows the PV to push much further south and sets it up to potentially phase with the southern shortwave. There is substantial evidence that there will be a storm in 6 days due to the extent of the model agreements. I'd rather have some models show a suppressed solution than a direct hit 6 days out any day. Just like last year's December storm, the models gradually brought it closer to the coast and further north to give us a good hit. This may unfold the exact same way. I know you would usually want a +PNA with a -NAO/-AO but that almost never happens in a Nina of this strength, but that's OK. The Atlantic is capable of producing an EC snowstorm when it's able to overpower an unfavorable pacific. The fact that we could see snow at almost the exact same time as last year is quite a coincidence too and it's even more ironic that the pattern we were in last December to the one in this December is very different (strong El Nino vs. strong La Nina) but still favorable enough to produce a MECS/HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 The 18z GFS through 48 hours actually looks pretty good, but the big difference compared to the 00z runs is that is much slower building in the big Greenland Ridge, that feature was key in retrograding the PV into the trough far enough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Through 81 hours, we still need the PV to retrograde further west in order to get the amplification we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Really not too bad at 105 hours but whatever's happening needs to get it's act together--still seems disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 111 looks alot more impressive then 12z.....its taken steps in the right direction.....i dont feel it will be enough......prob a solution similiar to the euro. Its seems like this event has been sped up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Much improved from 12z at 114 hrs but not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Very impressive trough organization at 120-126 hours, very close to going neutral to neg over the MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 126 broad pressure 1008 over se GA.....preciep up to NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Polar Vortex is retrograding rapidly at 129 hours..it was only a matter of time. It's literally going to come down to hours this run...we may pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 132 lg to mod snow dc south through va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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