Chris L Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 How far from regular is it? How often do we see a PV phase in the storm itself? I think what I mean by "regular" is like the February 5-6h Blizzard setup. I think that's more classic than this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 When models jump around like this like they have been the last few days it reminds me if an old Dave Wert rule, Dave worked at the WSO at NWS Newark back in the day where we only had 2 models availalbe the LFM and NGM, Rainshadow may recall Dave they wrote an excellent paper together on Hurricane Gloria, anyway Dave's rule was even systems that look perfect in the month of December have a way of falling apart. Anyway just thought I throw it out there, I am a little concerned here of the storm not happening to many of the models have it now as a fish storm for the NYC metro area where my concerns are. " Like Joey B says we shall see what we shall see " By the way Great discussion everyone like Jim Eberwine, NWS Mount Holly once told me a good forecaster should never be on an island when forecasting we take a little something from everyone. Have a great day !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 this is pretty interesting from the sref inside 60 hrs, and now even on the 6z nam with the north trend of the first system. Here are the 3z srefs accum prcip tot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 heres the 3z eta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The 06Z RGEM will be out in 40 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 The northward jump in precip for the first storm is directly related to the shortwave over the Great Lakes on that ETA image...which later becomes confluence and keeps our real storm de-amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 06z NAM H5 looks much better with the ridging out west through hr 72. It looks a little less progressive compared to 12z. 700rh field looking a bit more expansive across the east coast as well through 72hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 The 300mb jet is certainly more amplified this run and the PV isn't pressing on the pattern as much, but it's just flat and faster with the southern stream so that gives us a net result neutral pretty much. This run definitely didn't get worse, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 06Z NAM looks like it would be a miss but its hard to say given it could begin really amplyfing at 90 or 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 06Z NAM looks like it would be a miss but its hard to say given it could begin really amplyfing at 90 or 96. Yeah, it got closer than 00z though. At 84 hours you can see the energy in the trough now over the Central US. Not totally a bad solution but obviously you want to see this trend continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 84hr 300mb jet is ominous if it's about 4-6 hours slower, as it is the look of it isn't too bad anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The 6z NAM is basically better in every aspect than the 0z NAM was. Much less confluence, and 300mb is much more amplified. And this is random, but I see that iverson3 is posting in this thread...just as I was watching youtube videos of Iverson putting up 58 points...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 84hr 300mb jet is ominous if it's about 4-6 hours slower, as it is the look of it isn't too bad anyways. It really does look quite appetizing to say the least. we need that s/w to be a bit more juiced up. Per the Euro, and even the 00z GFS, the northern stream looks like it wants to play, the s/w has to do it's part. There is ample time to have these individual trends of a stronger s/w and more PV interaction continue. Potential is there for a great phase or even a nice bomb off the coast without a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 lol epic fail tn wrt to the models...why does tracking the weather have to be so damn frustrating. I guess its that aspect of it that makes it so exciting at the same time... It doesn't have to be if you factor in climo, past performance of these paper storms, and if folks don't live and die by each damn computer model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The 6z NAM is basically better in every aspect than the 0z NAM was. Much less confluence, and 300mb is much more amplified. And this is random, but I see that iverson3 is posting in this thread...just as I was watching youtube videos of Iverson putting up 58 points...lol. Nice, what a coincidence lol, one of his greatest individual performances ever, though the game didn't mean much. Hope this storm can come through with the same flare he had in his game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Nice, what a coincidence lol, one of his greatest individual performances ever, though the game didn't mean much. Hope this storm can come through with the same flare he had in his game. It was actually game 1 against the New Orleans Hornets in a playoff series...it's unreal. I'm actually a diehard Knicks fan, but I always loved AI. And yes, maybe me watching the videos and you posting will bring flare to this darn shortwave! If we don't get anything out of this southern shortwave, then what is the northern stream going to phase into? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It was actually game 1 against the New Orleans Hornets in a playoff series...it's unreal. I'm actually a diehard Knicks fan, but I always loved AI. And yes, maybe me watching the videos and you posting will bring flare to this darn shortwave! If we don't get anything out of this southern shortwave, then what is the northern stream going to phase into? Amen, glad to have a fellow AI fan here. It should definitely bring good luck. It is easier to get the southern s/w to amplify with than getting the PV interaction. If this were last year, we know that s/w would be trending stronger in future runs with that stj, but that's not the case this year. Let's get a couple strong jet streaks to get that low going off the coast there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looking at the ECMWF, I wouldn't be surprised by a big warm up by New Years Eve/Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looking at the ECMWF, I wouldn't be surprised by a big warm up by New Years Eve/Day. Not looking to warm anywhere in the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 6z gfs looks flatter than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 6z gfs looks flatter than 0z Well thats fine, nothing going to happen with this anyway, I hope i'm wrong but NOTHING is showing a hit and this is dead IMO. Now we don't have to worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 awful gfs run, cold and dry with a lake cutter at the very end. Fits La Nina well...I am increasingly worried the pattern takes a turn for the warm in Jan. I'm not panicking yet, BUT....if this is going to be a common theme for the winter, then a warm-up would be a blessing. If it just isn't going to snow, then give me 40's and 50's the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Little NW then 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's better than 0z...I'm too tired to deeply analyze it, but it's better. Obviously not a hit, but there are a few minor improvements. zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 hopefully it keeps improving throughout the day today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 can someone explain to me what happen from 84-90? looks like the low backed southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Boston gets snow, just like the Red Sox are getting players. Per the 6z GFS and the winter meetings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This baby is coming back west for 12z. The trough goes negative earlier pulling the low to the coast a bit more. The trough axis of the 300mb jet is also aligned further west through 108 hr. Minor improvements, so even though 5h looked a little flat early on, end result is better than 12z. Look for that s/w to come in stronger at 12z and a solution even a bit closer to the coast with a little more significant northern stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 can someone explain to me what happen from 84-90? looks like the low backed southwest Not here it didn't http://www.meteo.psu...6z/avnloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This baby is coming back west for 12z. The trough goes negative earlier pulling the low to the coast a bit more. The trough axis of the 300mb jet is also aligned further west through 108 hr. Minor improvements, so even though 5h looked a little flat early on, end result is better than 12z. Look for that s/w to come in stronger at 12z and a solution even a bit closer to the coast with a little more significant northern stream interaction. What makes you think the shortwave will come in stronger at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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