mattinpa Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I don't like that the GFS has this big storm already either. I thought it might show something more tonight. But it would be flat or father SE. Or as some say, maybe the signal is strong enough for the models to show it even this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Also, lets not forget that not EVERY storm verified last year. I remember big hopes about 2/15-16... for most of this region, that was not a storm of note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Or as some say, maybe the signal is strong enough for the models to show it even this far out. The smaller the storm, the harder time the models are going to have filtering out any "signal". This isn't a storm as massive as 93 or even 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'll now bring up two more storms that for most of this area, ended up being duds last year even though the modeling had them way out: New Years January 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The smaller the storm, the harder time the models are going to have filtering out any "signal". This isn't a storm as massive as 93 or even 96. Sounds like the background "noise" makes smaller storms much harder to predict. This is also true with tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 You're correct, a lakes cutter will definitely not happen in this pattern w/ a strong -AO and west based -NAO block. Better chance of an out to sea scenario than inland runner/cutter. I can envision a coastal hugger though, where the big cities change over to rain, if the PV orients itself further SW, causing heights to rise more along the EC. Supression is probably more likely than that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 One more that was modeled way out and was a dud: Early March I think that's 4 (New Years, Jan 30, Feb 15-16, early March) that at one point were modeled as monsters but turned out to be duds overall. Given that there were 4 that weren't duds, that drops the probability of a big one to at least 50%, given modeling success last year alone. There are probably one or two more I'm not remembering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 One more that was modeled way out and was a dud: Early March I think that's 4 (New Years, Jan 30, Feb 15-16, early March) that at one point were modeled as monsters but turned out to be duds overall. Given that there were 4 that weren't duds, that drops the probability of a big one to at least 50%, given modeling success last year alone. There are probably one or two more I'm not remembering... Haha dont remind me of that one-- it was the harbinger of an awful March. The high point of that month was the mid Month huge (all rain) noreaster. There was an early December storm that was supposed to give us some snow (not a monster) and didnt deliver also. So the season started and ended on a dud lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Annnnnnnd... the GFS loses it It could still come back. Its now a wait and see game... it'll hold my attention most of the week, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Here's a visual on the 12z GGEM where we can see the main features still in play that we were speaking about yesterday. The shortwave heading over the top of the west coast ridge (in this frame over the Dakotas) is a feature that is becoming increasingly important as it serves to really amplify the trough as it heads east--but the main feature remains the interaction between the southern stream shortwave and PV. The 12z Euro today had significant height improvements in regards to these two features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Annnnnnnd... the GFS loses it It could still come back. Its now a wait and see game... it'll hold my attention most of the week, that's for sure. This is pretty much how I feel. I'm not getting my hopes up but there's something definitely to watch. No sense getting up or down with each and every model run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'll now bring up two more storms that for most of this area, ended up being duds last year even though the modeling had them way out: New Years January 30 Did'nt DEC 25 26 also show a big hit 8 days out before it became a big cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 The 12z UKMet hemispheric loops are out, and they show what's going on much better aloft. Oddly enough the model doesn't have a full phase with the PV, in fact it leaves a piece of it over Central Canada. That being said, it's much more amplified with the trough over the Southern US. I tried sifting through the GFS Ensembles to find a member similar aloft to the 12z UKMet, but went without luck. The closest I could find was p004. I do think this type of solution would still obviously find a way to produce frozen precipitation in our area given the setup aloft and the low pressure tucking inland, but you would have to be west and then southwest of the low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Did'nt DEC 25 26 also show a big hit 8 days out before it became a big cutter? We aren't 8 days out and the models aren't showing a big hit...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It did. I think there were supposed to be 2 events, one on Christmas Eve and the other 25th - 26th with more threats through the new year and what many touted to be one of the best 2 week periods of winter in recent years. Of course that didn't pan out except for LI/NE with that crazy ocean storm. Did'nt DEC 25 26 also show a big hit 8 days out before it became a big cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Did'nt DEC 25 26 also show a big hit 8 days out before it became a big cutter? I think you're right... good call. That's 5 from last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 We aren't 8 days out and the models aren't showing a big hit...yet They did over the weekend (EC) and last night (GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 They did over the weekend (EC) and last night (GFS). Yes and if I remember correctly, All our good storms waffled around last year until the NAM locked them in between 54 and 66, except Dec 19th which it locked in a 84. NAM inside 60 was deadly last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 granted its off the 6z run of the gfs, but buff kit shows 22 inches for phl http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfsm/gfs3_kphl.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 15z srefs look interesting for the first system http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ECMWF ensembles are just a bit SE of the benchmark at 144h....they look good right now. Thanks Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Thanks Will yahtzeee...we shall see a visual in about 10 mins when they come out on raliegh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 yahtzeee...we shall see a visual in about 10 mins when they come out on raliegh. does that mean its possible they're NW of the OP??? if thats the case good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 The ECMWF ensembles are rather similar to the GFS ensembles with their track just southeast of the benchmark. Clearly more phasing going on compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 does that mean its possible they're NW of the OP??? if thats the case good sign if they are close to the bm, then yes that would be nw of the op i would assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 btw kinda unrelated but there were some pretty heated discussions about it a couple days ago...18z nam pretty bullish on the cold -18 to -19 850s at its coldest. Def gonna be colder than last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 heres sat hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 heres hr 144 compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I think you're right... good call. That's 5 from last winter. January 8th as well http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2010/us0108.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 heres hr 144 compared to 0z what is that like 100 miles ese of the BM and 100 miles w of 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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