NittanyWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The operational GGEM was well south and east of the ensembles at 12z....I have a hard time believing this system is suppressed by that big of a margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The operational GGEM was well south and east of the ensembles at 12z....I have a hard time believing this system is suppressed by that big of a margin. The 00Z run will probably be the same....its bizarre that the GEM is so far off its normal tendencies and biases as far as its track of this system over the majority of its last 4-5 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like the 00z GFS Ensemble mean is east also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Uh, there have actually been quite a few Miller A's in mod or stronger la ninas. You need to get away from your relative attitude that it has to hit in your back yard to be a Miller A. Offhand, I can come up with March 1956, February 1989, January 2000, December 2000..... probably a lot more if you include the winters of 1916-17 and 1917-18. I dont think we get hit in a major way with this one (but we might be side swiped like we were in Feb 1989), but I wont invoke some "magical" climo to explain something for me. Each event and each winter should be taken on its own merits. Alex- i dont believe march 56 or dec 2000 were miller A..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The 00Z run will probably be the same....its bizarre that the GEM is so far off its normal tendencies and biases as far as its track of this system over the majority of its last 4-5 runs I think its practical actually, ggem does well in ninos, but in a nina pattern it does not pick up on the occasioanl ss energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Alex- i dont believe march 56 or dec 2000 were miller A..... March 1956 was a Miller B. Dec 2000 was a Miller A/B Hybird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 through 42 hrs, southern storm is a little further north, .1 precip into dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 March 1956 was a Miller B. Dec 2000 was a Miller A/B Hybird. I believe in the end, most guidance will shift to a miller b or hybrid with this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 hr 48 has lgt precip from pa turnpike south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I believe in the end, most guidance will shift to a miller b or hybrid with this setup Hybrids are the best, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Let's be objective here guys...pretend your mind is now a blank slate and you have no knowledge of what prior runs showed. Looking at the 0z GGEM, you'd have to be completely delusional to think there's a feasible possibility of there being a snowstorm in 100 or so hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hybrids are the best, IMO. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the s/w on the euro at hr 54 looks to be a good bit less amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Let's be objective here guys...pretend your mind is now a blank slate and you have no knowledge of what prior runs showed. Looking at the 0z GGEM, you'd have to be completely delusional to think there's a feasible possibility of there being a snowstorm in 100 or so hours. How could we be objective when you tell us there is no feasible possibility of there being a snowstorm based on the Gem...........lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The Euro looks very flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 through 60 hrs its a good bit flatter to, the pv in the northeast looks to be weaker, but its no where near as amplified as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 ECMWF is flat as a pancake, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 How could we be objective when you tell us there is no feasible possibility of there being a snowstorm based on the Gem...........lol? not sure if serious.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Very, very bad run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 only positive i see so far is the pv has moved out of the northeast into canada..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looking at the 0z GGEM, you'd have to be completely delusional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Very, very bad run so far certainly not good trends tonight, but im still thinking we should wait till the thu system clears before all hope is lost. 4 of 9 gfs runs had a hit and 2 of 7 for the euro ggem 0 for 6, uk seems abou half. Ensembles are discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Update: at 90 hours, still a very, very bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The good news if that storm fails, I can break out Don Meredith's rendition of "The Party's Over". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 congrats bermuda...no precip gets above nc, no really heavy precip in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Update: at 90 hours, still a very, very bad run. Yeh it's over man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 apparently the euro isnt showing much more consistency than the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 lol epic fail tn wrt to the models...why does tracking the weather have to be so damn frustrating. I guess its that aspect of it that makes it so exciting at the same time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Update: at 90 hours, still a very, very bad run. Suddenly the # 90 degree days tally seems so long ago but less frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 congrats bermuda...no precip gets above nc, no really heavy precip in general. Completely lost the storm? So far, it's the outlier on that, but it has led the way. No reason to give up until we see what happens tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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