December 18-20 Potential Talking Points

[mattinpa]

00z GFS ensemble mean spread has come back west a bit, and has trended more amplified..but is still a good bit wide right.

Thanks. That's one bit of good news tonight.

[SnowGoose69]

Uh, there have actually been quite a few Miller A's in mod or stronger la ninas. You need to get away from your relative attitude that it has to hit in your back yard to be a miller A. Offhand, I can come up with March 1956, February 1989 and December 2000..... probably a lot more if you include the winters of 1916-17 and 1917-18.

December 2000 was a Miller B though it formed quite far south...February 89 was even a Miller A/B type storm...not a true version of either...it does not matter for NYC really...any Miller B that forms south of the Delmarva will generally bring decent snows to the area if it takes the classic track...we don't need Miller As like they do in SNJ southward.

[Chris L]

Correct me if I'm wrong, didn't the winter of 95-96 feature a la nina?

Very Weak one. very Nino-ish in performance, though.

[A-L-E-X]

Correct me if I'm wrong, didn't the winter of 95-96 feature a la nina?

Yeah, but we're going with moderate or strong lol.  That one was weak.  As was 1966-67.  Weak La Ninas tend to be pretty good here, second in snowfall only to Weak El Ninos.  Weak La Ninas that come after El Ninos are particularly great (as those two were.)  Too bad this thing didnt stop at weak...... it would have been a combo of 1995-96 and 2009-10 and who wouldnt want that in our neck of the woods lol.

[TwcMan]

00z GFS ensemble mean spread has come back west a bit, and has trended more amplified..but is still a good bit wide right.

positive note

[Neblizzard]

When was the last time the EURO showed this as a hit.....

Sunday, and then it quickly backed off. The GFS has been so inconsistent showing blizzard, miss, blizzard, miss etc. The EURO is by the far the most superior model, that's a fact....

[TwcMan]

Yeah, but we're going with moderate or strong lol. That one was weak. As was 1966-67. Weak La Ninas tend to be pretty good here, second in snowfall only to Weak El Ninos. Weak La Ninas that come after El Ninos are particularly great (as those two were.) Too bad this thing didnt stop at weak...... it would have been a combo of 1995-96 and 2009-10 and who wouldnt want that in our neck of the woods lol.

lol well I can tell you, I def. would. thanks

[Neblizzard]

Very Weak one. very Nino-ish in performance, though.

Not only a Weak La Nina, but a pronounced +PDO which enchanced the ridging along the west coast. Something this year is totally lacking...

[GD0815]

Sunday, and then it quickly backed off. The GFS has been so inconsistent showing blizzard, miss, blizzard, miss etc. The EURO is by the far the most superior model, that's a fact....

there wasnt one run of the euro that was a hit yesterday? im not sure, asking...

[A-L-E-X]

December 2000 was a Miller B though it formed quite far south...February 89 was even a Miller A/B type storm...not a true version of either...it does not matter for NYC really...any Miller B that forms south of the Delmarva will generally bring decent snows to the area if it takes the classic track...we don't need Miller As like they do in SNJ southward.

Haha, so those storms dont really fit into any of those categorizes.  February 1989 was a weird one-- ACY got 20" of snow.... Philly nothing..... NYC got 1-3" and LI got 2-5"..... you'd think of that as more of a Miller A snowfall pattern.  December 2000 was rain in NE and snow in NJ/NYC/W LI--- you'd think of that as a Miller A in the same vein as Feb 26, 2010.... but I guess storms with similar snowfall patterns dont necessarily have the same origins.  It's all semantics anyway.

[ag3]

00z GFS ensemble mean spread has come back west a bit, and has trended more amplified..but is still a good bit wide right.

They appear to be a bit west of operational.

Telling sign.

[Analog96]

awful gfs run, cold and dry with a lake cutter at the very end. Fits La Nina well...I am increasingly worried the pattern takes a turn for the warm in Jan.

It very well could happen, but keep one thing in mind. Models, particularly the GFS, tend to change patterns too early. The GFS kept doing that with the cold around Thanksgivng.

[tombo82685]

there wasnt one run of the euro that was a hit yesterday? im not sure, asking...

last time the euro had a hit i believe was 12z sunday

[A-L-E-X]

Not only a Weak La Nina, but a pronounced +PDO which enchanced the ridging along the west coast.  Something this year is totally lacking...

Weak La Ninas after El Ninos are the ticket to Tristate snowfall nirvana lol.

[mattinpa]

GGEM I think is just offshore for you guys... moves ENE and brushes the area

http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_132.jpg

http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_144.jpg

That is better than before.. now it gets a bit confusing.

[A-L-E-X]

awful gfs run, cold and dry with a lake cutter at the very end.  Fits La Nina well...I am increasingly worried the pattern takes a turn for the warm in Jan.

Looks like the nao is being forecasted to go positive sometime around Christmas on the globals..... hopefully it goes negative again, as strong blocks tend to repeat.  HM doesnt think so though, because of the strength of the la nina and mjo forcing.  We'll have to see if it weakens some during real winter.  BTW weren't people saying La Nina was starting to weaken just about a week or two ago? 

[ag3]

That is better than before.. now it gets a bit confusing.

Way west of 12z.

[tombo82685]

GGEM I think is just offshore for you guys... moves ENE and brushes the area

http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_132.jpg

http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_144.jpg

thats the wrong time stamp, should be 0z tues for 144, or unless my thing is stuck i refreshed it a couple times

[TwcMan]

I keep hearing thats the old ggem

[yoda]

thats the wrong time stamp, should be 0z tues for 144, or unless my thing is stuck i refreshed it a couple times

Yeah my bad It is the old one

[ag3]

Yeah. That is the old run, I believe.

[MJO812]

This is the new GGEM. Maybe a little west of 12z.

[Neblizzard]

This is the new GGEM. Way east of 12z.

Makes sense, given the trends we have seen tonight. I've thrown in the towel.....

[SnoSki14]

Get Ready, Get Set, Get Set...

At this point, AccuWeather.com meteorologists continue to watch the storm closely. We don't recommend changing plans just yet, but continue to check in at AccuWeather.com for updates.

As it stands now, the weekend storm would still be dwarfed by the snowstorms of last winter in the coastal mid-Atlantic. However, with nothing to speak of so far this season and things looking scarce for the necessary cold air for storms come January and February based on Bastardi's winter forecast this could be the big storm for the winter for parts of the mid-Atlantic and coastal New England, if it pans out.

Unlike the monster storm last weekend, we do not have a weak storm tracking across the Great Lakes removing the Arctic air in the Northeast before the main storm arrives.

The big question becomes, will the cold be too much for the storm to negotiate.

This is from accuweather. They believe this could be the only big threat this winter and then things may go downhill after that.

[Zir0b]

quote name='Snow88' timestamp='1292389591' post='110765']

This is the new GGEM. Maybe a little west of 12z.

thats just horrible

[mattinpa]

This is the new GGEM. Maybe a little west of 12z.

Still looks bad, but at least the "way east" part was changed.

[jm1220]

Guys, I still think it's way too early to throw in the towel or write off this event. First off, we're waiting to actually initialize the pieces of energy involved on land, which sometimes makes a significant difference in the outputs. Also, relatively small changes in the PV orientation or phasing of the waves involved could blow this right back up. I'd give it until at least tomorrow night's 0z run, if not 12z Thurs.

And of course, for those of you who forget, less than TWO DAYS before the 12/19 event last year, most models had a miss to the southeast and snow showers where 2 feet of snow fell over Long Island. It was only the day before when models started coming north en masse and affecting the area significantly. Many north and west of NYC didn't see much from it, but considering how far north a leap it took at the last minute, it was still quite significant.

I doubt that a dynamic system like this ends up as far south and east as the GGEM has it now. It may well mostly miss out to sea or only mildly graze the immediate coast, but I also think it's hogwash it exits due east from NC. A lot of times these southern stream waves verify stronger than predicted at >96 hrs out, and the polar vortex only requires a small shift at this range to allow a stronger phase and system. It's still definitely time to keep a watch.

[A-L-E-X]

  Well, if accuweather thinks its going to be a big storm but dwarfed by the storms of last winter they are being contradictory.  The weakest of the "big three" dumped about a foot of snow, so at best, this would be a moderate snowstorm, if it is going to be "dwarfed" by a foot of snow.  "Dwarfed" (to me at least) means half or less. 

[SnowGoose69]

NOGAPS remains just outside benchmark, quite close to the GFS from what I can tell.

[jm1220]

Well, if accuweather thinks its going to be a big storm but dwarfed by the storms of last winter they are being contradictory. The weakest of the "big three" dumped about a foot of snow, so at best, this would be a moderate snowstorm, if it is going to be "dwarfed" by a foot of snow. "Dwarfed" (to me at least) means half or less.

A "moderate" snowstorm means different things to different regions. For Richmond, 6-8" is probably very significant, DC quite significant, and for us up to Boston "moderate". Also, when you talk about the mammoths of last winter such as the 12/19 and 2/6 storms, it's very unlikely that this one stacks up. 2/25 was also a fairly local hit to our area and upstate NY/NJ.