December 18-20 Potential Talking Points

[Neblizzard]

can't say I didn't expect this...

00z gfs 12/15 hr 108

The GFS is such a horrible model, EURO can't be denied!

[IsentropicLift]

again however, still time to fix this...lets see how the ensembles look and more importantly the 00z euro.

[SnoSki14]

I would give it till Thursday before making any snap judgments, the models could easily shift again and hit us. It wouldn't surprise me if we didn't get hit though, climo would strongly argue against a big noreaster.

[Ridingtime]

The main satisfying thing about this model run is that it's still many many hours away and things can and do change. I know this is said a lot already but I think it's worth mentioning again.

[MikeS]

Now watch, the EURO is going to shift and show a nice hit.

Mass chaos.

[KEITH L.I]

GFS looks like Euro..who's surprised?..it's amazing how it locks into something and the other models bow..oh well still 4 days left..goodnight

[mattinpa]

Now watch, the EURO is going to shift and show a nice hit.

Mass chaos.

Lots of people give up so early.. I just don't understand it.

[IsentropicLift]

once were inside 84hrs and the main players are on the continent we will know which way things are going. As of now, the shortwave in play forecasted to drop through the midwest and play a major factor if the 12z gfs is to be believed is still up somewhere in eastern Siberia.

[isnice]

Now watch, the EURO is going to shift and show a nice hit.

Mass chaos.

I would come to the conference naked...hold me to it

[Snowlover11]

Im not worried, in fact we are sitting pretty as of right now. Give us time for this baby to work its way west.

[earthlight]

Over the last day or so the H5 depiction has improved dramatically so that there is much room for a west trend, especially with the system occurring at 100 hours out. Still plenty of time.

[Chris L]

You know as much about "climo" as you do the Urdu language...

William, this is hilarious.

[Allsnow]

You know as much about "climo" as you do the Urdu language...

lmao.....

Lets give this to 12z thursday before we jump ship....for the wennies if ur in the bullzeye it will be never good to be in it this early.......if its east these things never trend west..........Take a thing or two from some of the more intelligent posters and relax......

[mattinpa]

Trough goes negative, but too late. We just need a change there for later runs and it could look better again. Wasn't there some phasing?

[A-L-E-X]

You know as much about "climo" as you do the Urdu language...

I would argue that there is no such thing as "climo" its just an accumulation of averages.  If we were to go by "climo" our whole snowfall pattern in the 00 decades would never have happened.

People use the term "climo" because they just dont understand the specific forces at work which govern our climate therefore they have to reduce everything to a couple of simple numbers to make themselves think they understand.  This is why I've always scoffed at simple-minded reductionists.

[TwcMan]

it's been said before...la nina storms like to trend west, give it time...wait for the euro which has been leading the way all week

[tombo82685]

here is the 0z ukie

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2010121500&REGION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=850&F2=none&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F1=p06i&C1=pmsl

[SnowGoose69]

it's been said before...la nina storms like to trend west, give it time...wait for the euro which has been leading the way all week

This is not as much the case as people would make you think, we've had some events that did that such as January 2000 and one of the late winter events in 00-01 but overall there is just as much chance of a westward shift in a neutral or El Nino winter as a La Nina....this miss by the GFS is so close at 100 hours or more that unless we start seeing a continued eastward trend on the ensuing 2-3 runs this is very much a threat still.

[mattinpa]

here is the 0z ukie

http://weather.uwyo....F1=p06i&C1=pmsl

Heard it was a miss, Tom? Just not a good night then. I hope things trend better again by 12z tomorrow. Even if we don't get a blizzard, it could come west enough for a few inches.

[NorEaster27]

awful gfs run, cold and dry with a lake cutter at the very end. Fits La Nina well...I am increasingly worried the pattern takes a turn for the warm in Jan.

[SnoSki14]

I would argue that there is no such thing as "climo" its just an accumulation of averages. If we were to go by "climo" our whole snowfall pattern in the 00 decades would never have happened.

People use the term "climo" because they just dont understand the specific forces at work which govern our climate therefore they have to reduce everything to a couple of simple numbers to make themselves think they understand. This is why I've always scoffed at simple-minded reductionists.

Oh really, exactly how many Miller A setups have you seen in the past with such a strong La Nina, hardly any and yes the only reason why this setup is even plausible is due to the massive -NAO block. I don't even know why you people are against me, I'm not one of the dozens of people here who are dismissing the storm already, I have a lot of hope for this one.

[TwcMan]

This is not as much the case as people would make you think, we've had some events that did that such as January 2000 and one of the late winter events in 00-01 but overall there is just as much chance of a westward shift in a neutral or El Nino winter as a La Nina....this miss by the GFS is so close at 100 hours or more that unless we start seeing a continued eastward trend on the ensuing 2-3 runs this is very much a threat still.

That is true. There are also things called "hiccups" on models, maybe this is a hiccup on the gfs. Like you said, it's still far out and can still trend in our favor.

[Kaner587]

That is true. There are also things called "hiccups" on models, maybe this is a hiccup on the gfs. Like you said, it's still far out and can still trend in our favor.

People so quickly forget there 00z and 6z GFS were misses lol

the last set of runs for the GFS were...

00z mon-hit

6z mon-hit

12z mon-miss

18z mon-hit

00z-mon-miss

6z-miss

12z-hit

18z-hit

00z-mis

[A-L-E-X]

Oh really, exactly how many Miller A setups have you seen in the past with such a strong La Nina, hardly any and yes the only reason why this setup is even plausible is due to the massive -NAO block. I don't even know why you people are against me, I'm not one of the dozens of people here who are dismissing the storm already, I have a lot of hope for this one.

Uh, there have actually been quite a few Miller A's in mod or stronger la ninas.  You need to get away from your relative attitude that it has to hit in your back yard to be a Miller A.  Offhand, I can come up with March 1956, February 1989, January 2000, December 2000..... probably a lot more if you include the winters of 1916-17 and 1917-18.  I dont think we get hit in a major way with this one (but we might be side swiped like we were in Feb 1989), but I wont invoke some  "magical" climo to explain something for me.  Each event and each winter should be taken on its own merits.   

[NorEaster27]

People so quickly forget there 00z and 6z GFS were misses lol

When was the last time the EURO showed this as a hit.....

[earthlight]

00z GFS ensemble mean spread has come back west a bit, and has trended more amplified..but is still a good bit wide right.

[Neblizzard]

How about the winter of 2008-2009 where the GFS and NAM showed a massive snowstorm 3 days out and the EURO showed nothing. I don't recall the date, but that was the case. Unless the Euro shows a dramatic shift west at 0Z, this one is over folks.

[Chris L]

Oh really, exactly how many Miller A setups have you seen in the past with such a strong La Nina, hardly any and yes the only reason why this setup is even plausible is due to the massive -NAO block. I don't even know why you people are against me, I'm not one of the dozens of people here who are dismissing the storm already, I have a lot of hope for this one.

You really need to read the Kocin book man.

[TwcMan]

Uh, there have actually been quite a few Miller A's in mod or stronger la ninas. You need to get away from your relative attitude that it has to hit in your back yard to be a Miller A. Offhand, I can come up with March 1956, February 1989, January 2000, December 2000..... probably a lot more if you include the winters of 1916-17 and 1917-18. I dont think we get hit in a major way with this one (but we might be side swiped like we were in Feb 1989), but I wont invoke something "magical" climo to explain something for me. Each event and each winter should be taken on its own merits.

Correct me if I'm wrong, didn't the winter of 95-96 feature a la nina?

[Kaner587]

also I do think this current "miss" on the GFS is cause for concern but its been waffling for a couple days now