Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah, the NAM is certainly a lot flatter thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That shortwave over Colorado is unbelievably important.. Well as long as it's there, that's good news. But I don't think it's going to phase with that shortwave as early as it did on previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12Z GFS 66hr: 00Z NAM 54 hr" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Actually not terribly far off from the 18z GFS thus far, just more confluence over the Lakes. Still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Actually not terribly far off from the 18z GFS thus far, just more confluence over the Lakes. Still early. It's definitely flatter than the 18z NAM, though; that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's definitely flatter than the 18z NAM, though; that's for sure. Oh without a doubt--it's going to be tough to get it up the coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 pick a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Man, thank god this is the long range nam...Lower heights on the east coast, less ridging, weaker s/w, PV over NE farther south...This is not a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I disagree.. pay attention to the NAM and how it handles the energy out west earlier in the run.... remember, look at HOW things get to the end result, not just the end result, especially on the long range NAM. I am more optimistic now, to be honest with you, and I don't even want it to snow this weekend. Man, thank god this is the long range nam...Lower heights on the east coast, less ridging, weaker s/w, PV over NE farther south...This is not a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Taking into account the inaccuracies of the long range of the NAM, at H500 it isn't too far off from the GFS, in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I disagree.. pay attention to the NAM and how it handles the energy out west earlier in the run.... remember, look at HOW things get to the end result, not just the end result, especially on the long range NAM. I am more optimistic now, to be honest with you, and I don't even want it to snow this weekend. hmm yes good point, now that i have hr 78 and 84, the slower progression has allowed this thing to start the phase at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I disagree.. pay attention to the NAM and how it handles the energy out west earlier in the run.... remember, look at HOW things get to the end result, not just the end result, especially on the long range NAM. I am more optimistic now, to be honest with you, and I don't even want it to snow this weekend. Patrick, why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Man, thank god this is the long range nam...Lower heights on the east coast, less ridging, weaker s/w, PV over NE farther south...This is not a good run. I do not see what's so bad about this run. The good thing about this run is that the sw that is on Colorado/Utah at 78 hours is stronger and is located further south than 84h on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 have a Christmas party planned... way off topic here, but since you asked, i just lost my grandmother turkey day, my grandfather was just diagnosed with mesothelioma, and my civil union spouse lost his job. so i need this family party. thanks for asking buddy. back to the weather... the NAM looks good to me, the pattern is holding, the GFS is going to rock tonight... Patrick, why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I know all the attention is on the weekend threat, but what about after we get beyond the 20th? Are there any potential events for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 thank you... that's exactly where I was going with that. I see earth (john) posted the same idea int he NE thread (and no, i didn't copy him ;P) hmm yes good point, now that i have hr 78 and 84, the slower progression has allowed this thing to start the phase at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I know all the attention is on the weekend threat, but what about after we get beyond the 20th? Are there any potential events for next week? ECMWF has the block countining. No threats as of now on. Looks pretty cold with a sharp trough in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 have a Christmas party planned... way off topic here, but since you asked, i just lost my grandmother turkey day, my grandfather was just diagnosed with mesothelioma, and my civil union spouse lost his job. so i need this family party. thanks for asking buddy. back to the weather... the NAM looks good to me, the pattern is holding, the GFS is going to rock tonight... Sorry to hear that Patrick, hang in there man. Times are tough now, but good things are headed your way shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Even if the NAM looks a bit flatter, its similar to the 18z GFS, and we all know how that turned out. Still, the 00z runs are critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The 00Z GFS could very well lose this system, don't jump off the roof if it does, we had a period during the 12/19 event last year where all the models basically dropped the storm and it looked like it was over...there are just too many elements involved with this setup....we're still going to have significant swings for the next 24 hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 quick question i forgot who stated that this isnt a " thread the needle" kind of set up for this storm. but to me it sounds like it does becuase of all the components that have to go right at almost the exact time to give a snowstorm up the east coast. just a question, im trying to learn more so if someone could help me out please, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 The 00Z GFS could very well lose this system, don't jump off the roof if it does, we had a period during the 12/19 event last year where all the models basically dropped the storm and it looked like it was over...there are just too many elements involved with this setup....we're still going to have significant swings for the next 24 hours at least. I was thinking this same thing...wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I was thinking this same thing...wouldn't surprise me at all. Considering what the 18z ensembles did, I expect it to be a whiff tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Considering what the 18z ensembles did, I expect it to be a whiff tonight. Its hard to say if that means much because the ensembles have a tendency to be east of the OP GFS and especially so for 18Z...but there have been some cases similar to this before where the 18Z GFS ensembles were well east and then the 00Z run was in Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 quick question i forgot who stated that this isnt a " thread the needle" kind of set up for this storm. but to me it sounds like it does becuase of all the components that have to go right at almost the exact time to give a snowstorm up the east coast. just a question, im trying to learn more so if someone could help me out please, thank you This is especially bad because normally its just a question of will the shortwave or disturbance over the TN Valley/MS Valley merge witha PV...in this case the main PV over SE Canada won't be a big factor as far as being the phase culprit...its more these little vorts to the west over central-south Canada or the Upper Midwest..knowing exactly when and if one of those will be where it needs to be at this point is virtually impossible to guess.....its usually an easier call when you have a big PV over western ON or eastern Manitoba that ultimately phases with the shortwave, we don't really have that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This is especially bad because normally its just a question of will the shortwave or disturbance over the TN Valley/MS Valley merge witha PV...in this case the main PV over SE Canada won't be a big factor as far as being the phase culprit...its more these little vorts to the west over central-south Canada or the Upper Midwest..knowing exactly when and if one of those will be where it needs to be at this point is virtually impossible to guess.....its usually an easier call when you have a big PV over western ON or eastern Manitoba that ultimately phases with the shortwave, we don't really have that here. ok i see thank you for your response. hence the wide solutions on the models right now due to the timing issues with the shortwaves and the phasing of the possible storm, in reality then we probably wont get a general idea of this storms track/intensity till about friday or so correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS 18Z hr 90 00Z hr 84 Looks like 00Z isn't quite as amplified. Lets see how it turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 swing and a miss on the GFS, moving toward the EURO solution. Just too many variables that must come together to prevent an OTS storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 can't say I didn't expect this... 00z gfs 12/15 hr 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Gotta love it 500mb is also east. Hopefully a typical waffling in the GFS. We'll see how it looks tomorrow I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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