SmokeEater Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 From DT, he's not buying at all. Wxrisk.com 6PM UPDATE ON LINE.... sorry its late... got slammed today... THURSDAY 2-4 for southern 1/3 of VA...sw VA could see 5" .... for bigger event DEC 19 ... do NOT agree with 12z GFS MASSIVE snowstorm from RIC TO BOS.... central ...sw and eastern VA good chance to see Moderate snow event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 From DT, he's not buying at all. Wxrisk.com 6PM UPDATE ON LINE.... sorry its late... got slammed today... THURSDAY 2-4 for southern 1/3 of VA...sw VA could see 5" .... for bigger event DEC 19 ... do NOT agree with 12z GFS MASSIVE snowstorm from RIC TO BOS.... central ...sw and eastern VA good chance to see Moderate snow event... Yeah of course, everyone is screwed but his backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 From DT, he's not buying at all. Wxrisk.com 6PM UPDATE ON LINE.... sorry its late... got slammed today... THURSDAY 2-4 for southern 1/3 of VA...sw VA could see 5" .... for bigger event DEC 19 ... do NOT agree with 12z GFS MASSIVE snowstorm from RIC TO BOS.... central ...sw and eastern VA good chance to see Moderate snow event... He is reporting what we all agree on. We need more model support of course. ALL of us will go on the ship if ECMWF goes west, as well as GGEM-UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well the euro and ukmet are probly about 6 - 8 hrs too late with the phase...the monster still lurks just offshore.. Im in shock that some people are downplaying this potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 He is reporting what we all agree on. We need more model support of course. ALL of us will go on the ship if ECMWF goes west, as well as GGEM-UKMET. I thought I read somewhere that the UKMET was a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well the euro and ukmet are probly about 6 - 8 hrs too late with the phase...the monster still lurks just offshore.. Im in shock that some people are downplaying this potential.. Its better to downplay it - makes for less disapointment if it misses - plus the GFS has 2 problems - its not the best model out there - and its been flip flopping ... DGIX came on board BUT thats another model that is not very accurate............EURO is the King so its hard to argue against it at this range,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Its better to downplay it - makes for less disapointment if it misses - plus the GFS has 2 problems - its not the best model out there - and its been flip flopping ... DGIX came on board BUT thats another model that is not very accurate............EURO is the King so its hard to argue against it at this range,,,, I am getting tired of ECMWF is king.... Yes its better than the GFS, but not by much. This isn't 1995 when GFS was so far behind the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Its better to downplay it - makes for less disapointment if it misses - plus the GFS has 2 problems - its not the best model out there - and its been flip flopping ... DGIX came on board BUT thats another model that is not very accurate............EURO is the King so its hard to argue against it at this range,,,, It's not quite in its range yet for the big storm track, and I remember a few times last year it shifted west closer in. Hope so this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well the euro and ukmet are probly about 6 - 8 hrs too late with the phase...the monster still lurks just offshore.. Im in shock that some people are downplaying this potential.. UKMET was a hit...a more eastern version of the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I am getting tired of ECMWF is king.... Yes its better than the GFS, but not by much. This isn't 1995 when GFS was so far behind the ECMWF. Well, it was technically the AVN then and the ETA I think had only been out for around a year or so at that point...all things considered forecasting was pretty damn good in 1995 compared to 1985...largely because the LFM (already gone by then) and NGM were not as heavily relied upon. The Euro tends to perform better on East Coast storms overall but its blown many of them, but given it has so many more success events people tend to remember those....its funny because the memory usually retains failure better than success, but in this case success by the Euro is often failure for snow lovers so I guess I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Its better to downplay it - makes for less disapointment if it misses - plus the GFS has 2 problems - its not the best model out there - and its been flip flopping ... DGIX came on board BUT thats another model that is not very accurate............EURO is the King so its hard to argue against it at this range,,,, The GFS has been the one consistent model, other then one or 2 runs. So you're wrong there. And it's probably the 2nd best model behind the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Its better to downplay it - makes for less disapointment if it misses - plus the GFS has 2 problems - its not the best model out there - and its been flip flopping ... DGIX came on board BUT thats another model that is not very accurate............EURO is the King so its hard to argue against it at this range,,,, 5 out of 8 GFS runs have had an east coast snowstorm..it has been consistent.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 UKMET was a hit...a more eastern version of the 18z GFS ok thanks - didnt know that...But that is my point, we just need alittle more amplification with the s/w, we still have about 75 hrs left of trending, models wont lock in until thurs night on the track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 In 10 min, 21z srefs come out. Could they foreshadow the rest of the model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This is still open for a wide range of solutions. To be on the cold-side edge of the modeling envelop with a few big hits in the guidance is not a bad place 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm a little disconcerted with the lack of support now from DT. I know he's been wrong in the past but he was really into this being a good storm for us now not so much. My expectations are tempered regardless but just thought I should add this because only occasionally have we ended up getting a big storm when DT wasn't buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 His track record in the medium-long range is pretty good....sometimes in the short range his forecast amounts are somewhat high from what I've seen...last year though he was skeptical of the 12/19 event for NYC/NJ/CT even til the day of the event and as it turned out that had plenty of merit as the storm barely made it in and many parts of the area just inland did not see much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 we saw 4" or more of snow the last two December 19th-20th...Will it be three straight years???I'd rather see snow on the 24th-25th but that's wish full thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 21z SREFs are out. They look much flatter and more progressive than 15z. Probably not a good sign... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 His track record in the medium-long range is pretty good....sometimes in the short range his forecast amounts are somewhat high from what I've seen...last year though he was skeptical of the 12/19 event for NYC/NJ/CT even til the day of the event and as it turned out that had plenty of merit as the storm barely made it in and many parts of the area just inland did not see much snow. 12/19 really became major from around here on east through Long Island. Around a foot and a half here to over 2 feet in Suffolk County. It's amazing what localized banding can do in these storms. But on another note, I really thought the NYC area would get completely shafted up until about the day before. It really looked like it would just be a DC and southern NJ event for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 21z SREFs are out. They look much flatter and more progressive than 15z. Probably not a good sign... Much flatter? I'd say that's a bit of an exaggeration, it's flatter, but a huge difference, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Maybe it's just that the flatter west coast ridge creates the illusion of it being flatter? Who knows. On a positive note, this run looks like it's phasing in the PV more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Maybe it's just that the flatter west coast ridge creates the illusion of it being flatter? Who knows. On a positive note, this run looks like it's phasing in the PV more. haha I was actually going to tell you to ignore that part of it and it looks very similar with slight differences with the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I heard someone say the SREF"s were really far east, guess not... any word on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Also it looks like some of the variability in the 500 heights supports more of a PV splitting than before, but again nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 21z SREFs don't have 0Z data so I wouldn't be too concerned I've seen 0Z progs come in much diff from 21z SREFs fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Just thought some might be interested in what LC posted on his FB page about an hour ago I am still watching the potential for development on the East Coast December 19 - 21. ECMWF ensembles were mildly supportive of a more north and west track for the low with obvious snow implications Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 any word on the NAM? Only out to 24 on NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 500mb chart looks like dog **** at 36 hours compred to the 18Z. Very flat. May end up being no big dela, but definately a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 That shortwave over Colorado is unbelievably important.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.