supermeh Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like maybe more pv phasing than 12z. looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The unique part about this run is the southern shortwave is weaker, but more of the pv is phasing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 hr 102 1008 low over the coast of sc...light snow up to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 hr 108 over low over hse....mod snow from va-baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Still a big hit at 114-117 hours, big banding over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Right over the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 984 directly, literally directly over the Benchmark at 120 hours with an absolutely beastly CCB over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 hr 120 is beautiful for NYC. CCB hammering the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We're getting multiple runs now on the GFS of a pretty sizable storm.. If the 00z GFS continues w/ this type of hit and the 00z Euro moves further west- we're talking about the potential for a pretty nice event, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 One of the most beautiful surface low tracks I have seen in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Easily over 1" QPF for most of the area aside from inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 how much of the 18z runs are made of 12z data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Look at the Vertical Velocities map at 120!! Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 H5 closes off again just south of Long Island...literally the perfect track for a snowstorm of this nature. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 One of the most beautiful surface low tracks I have seen in recent memory. SInce February 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 The snow retrogrades back in at 132 as the system is tugged inland...UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 H500 looks pretty stunning. Very much ideal for a MECS-HECS event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 H5 closes off again just south of Long Island...literally the perfect track for a snowstorm of this nature. Wow. Almost too good to be true. Classic track though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 SInce February 2010? You're not kidding! hahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Win. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_700_120l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 One of the most beautiful surface low tracks I have seen in recent memory. What about last winter? It is a beautiful track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The snow retrogrades back in at 132 as the system is tugged inland...UKMET? Are we potentially looking at a prolonged event? 18-24 hours of snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Are we potentially looking at a prolonged event? 18-24 hours of snow?? It's not out of the realm of possibility given the blocking. On this run the surface low sits over the benchmark from 132-147 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Are we potentially looking at a prolonged event? 18-24 hours of snow?? That is so similiar to last year 12/19 Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It's not out of the realm of possibility given the blocking. On this run the surface low sits over the benchmark from 132-147 hours. Looks like a 50-75 mile shift east with the low/precip shield. Heck of a run for long island though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Are we potentially looking at a prolonged event? 18-24 hours of snow?? If the flow upstream is blocked up and the low cuts off, possibly. The 12z GFS and UKMET suggested this earlier. The Euro and GGEM keep the storm as an open wave and therefore doesn't stall it. This run develops the storm later and probably shafts people south of Philly somewhat, but it's almost exactly the same result from here to Boston as it explodes over the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Really pretty impressive agreement when you glance at the DGEX and GFS solutions aloft http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/f114.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Classic setup for classic let-down. Honestly I believe this looks good, and the best chance we've had so far this winter (although just the beginning) for some good snow. 4-5 days out yet, but good signals at least. Someone will probably get good snow, someone will probably get screwed. The nature of the beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Classic setup for classic let-down. Honestly I believe this looks good, and the best chance we've had so far this winter (although just the beginning) for some good snow. 4-5 days out yet, but good signals at least. Someone will probably get good snow, someone will probably get screwed. The nature of the beast. miller B is a classic set-up for a screw job---this will likely have a sharp cutoff but not anything like a miller B...this is unless this is an IMBY statement and then this is just a dumb post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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