Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Next person that says this is a thread the needle situation is getting reported. I am black ops mod... reminds me of this.... "I swear to go I'm going to pistol whip the next person to say shananigans...." "Hey farva whats the name of that restaurant you like with all the goofy crap on the walls and the good mozzarella sticks?" "What, you mean shenanigans?" also with that mother of god pic thats been floating around these threads... ok off topic rant over back to weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 still 114-120 hours left on it. keep that in mind when/if the 18z goes out to sea, or shows a blizzard that would leave us without power for months. I think it's important to note that the 00s so far have featured a proclivity towards major December snowstorms. Unlike the period from the 70s-90s, we've had very many major snow events in December this decade--12/30/00, 12/5/02 (to a lesser degree, though), 12/25/02, 12/5/03, 12/9/05, 12/19/09... there's definitely been an increased tendency towards major December Nor'Easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Interesting...the GFS did not phase the PV rather had the energy dropping down from the PAC NW and phased that with the energy in TX, Yeah the nam does not do that at all lol however both scream major hit for us imo..Lets see where the 18z gfs goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Next person that says this is a thread the needle situation is getting reported. I am black ops mod... Probably shouldn't go as far as saying thread the needle. But given that we don't have a nice amplified western ridge, we need excellent timing on a phase betweens the jet streams. It's a very delicate situation and far from a classic pattern for a snowstorm for us. I hope we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Probably shouldn't go as far as saying thread the needle. But given that we don't have a nice amplified western ridge, we need excellent timing on a phase betweens the jet streams. It's a very delicate situation and far from a classic pattern for a snowstorm for us. I hope we get lucky. Have you seen the SERF? Very nice downstream ridge behind the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Here is the DGEX. Big hit for coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well now we can confirm the NAM is a monster. Welcome back to the game, as far as the PV phase goes, boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 DGEX is on board. We all knew it tho, especially after what the NAM had just showed. A big hit for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well now we can confirm the NAM is a monster. Welcome back to the game, as far as the PV phase goes, boys. Yep, NYC really gets pounded.. decent snows back my way, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Here is the DGEX. Big hit for coast: also quite a bit more precip coming after that 114hr frame assuming this baby is closed at 500, and even if it isn't the precip extends south to the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 also quite a bit more precip coming after that 114hr frame assuming this baby is closed at 500, and even if it isn't the precip extends south to the delmarva Here is the total: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 i know this is still too early, but if it does pan out, will there be issues with regard to temps for us here in Long Island?? how accurate are the 10m maps anyway?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Aaaahhhhhhhhhhhh! 100+ hours out and a direct hit! (well, back where I am I could get shafted, but regardless, damn close) Lets hope this is a hit - waffle - hit situation on the models, or we will need some miraculous consistency over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 i know this is still too early, but if it does pan out, will there be issues with regard to temps for us here in Long Island?? how accurate are the 10m maps anyway?? Has a lot to do with the exact track of the system which we do not know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Don't forget here..... when we get closer, there will be dynamics that come into play, and probably will increase the banding due to the CCB and likely have some good wrapparound snows. But its way too early for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm hoping the 18z GFS holds serve, but wouldn't be surprised if it went east a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 i know this is still too early, but if it does pan out, will there be issues with regard to temps for us here in Long Island?? how accurate are the 10m maps anyway?? the track will determine everything. This storm can "pan out" in a number of ways and its thus impossible to say anything other than that the favored areas away from the immediate coast will PROBABLY not have a problem, the areas on the immediate coast still have to wait and see the ultimate placement of the low if there is even going to be a storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Has a lot to do with the exact track of the system which we do not know yet. beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 okay, thanks for the responses! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Posted a topic, but is that bay-effect snows happening is South Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 NWS state college : INCREASING CONCERN FOR A COASTAL STORM NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... GIVEN TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO FCST LOWS TOO FAR EAST THIS THE LAST FEW SEASONS. ALSO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUPPORT A LOW ABOUT 100 TO 200 MILES FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS SHOW. FOR NOW... DID UP POPS TO 20 PERCENT EAST OF MTS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SITUATION SIMILAR TO LAST DECEMBER 19TH STORM. -- End Changed Discussion -- FROM NWS STATE COLLEGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 some lgt snow for the phl region on hr 51 and 54 of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Posted a topic, but is that bay-effect snows happening is South Jersey? More like bay-enhanced lake effect snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 DGEX is on board. We all knew it tho, especially after what the NAM had just showed. A big hit for sure.. When isn't the DGEX on board with a big snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Really sharp cutoff west of the Delaware River Here is the total: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 When isn't the DGEX on board with a big snowstorm? lol the past 5 days when the threat was on the table... it just shows you the nam is hinting at a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 When isn't the DGEX on board with a big snowstorm? ...when the NAM isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 gfs 18z out to 96hrs...going to be another hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like maybe more pv phasing than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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