Ridingtime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 with what "seemed" to be an overpowering confluent flow over maine which ended up being enough miles north to allow the storm to come up the coast slightly And that overpowering confluent flow over maine was modeled due to the PV not splitting fast enough and directing it more west. And to me that's exactly what we are dealing with now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 15z SREF is opening up a plethora of possibilities given it's jet orientation, has trended more amplified the past several suites. Very far out for this ensemble though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12Z/14 MODELS: THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS SO FAR IS THE DEEP OUTLIER AND CREATES A MAJOR SNOWSTORM THIS WEEKEND FOR THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENG. THIS STORM IS FORECAST ALMOST EXACTLY ONE YEAR AFTER LAST YEARS MID ATLANTIC HUGE EVENT ON THE 19TH OF DEC. SPOOKY! THE 12Z/14 GEFS MEAN IS A MORE MODEST VERSION OF ITS DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPART BUT STILL PORTENDS A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THE UKMET SOLUTION IS FLATTER WHILE STILL BRINGING SOME PCPN TO THE MID ATLANTIC....WHILE THE CANADIAN HAS LITTLE AMPLITUDE AND WOULD SCOOT A FLAT WAVE OUT TO SEA. MANUAL PROGS WILL HEDGE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OFF THE E COAST ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE WEST FOR DAYS 5-6...NEXT SUN/MON. THE NEW ECMWF DEEPENS A VIGOROUS STORM SUN BUT IT IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BE A HEAVY SN THREAT TO THE MAJOR METRO AREAS FROM RIC TO BOS. CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LIGHT SN EVENT MOSTLY ON THE E SIDE OF I-95 THIS COMING WEEKEND HPC starting to come on board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 That SERF looks very classic like for a Kocin event, I like the ridiging behind the amplfied trough, very very good looking trough as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Surprised at the lack of talk regarding the NAM. It's a ways out, but this is a very favorable depiction for bringing the surface low near to the coast--impressive H300 jet structure. The NAM had me feeling good this morning. It looks pregnant. There was nobody competent around to give an analysis though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 I know its way out there... but what do you think of the 15z SREFs at 84 and 87 earthlight? You can tell a lot about what the ensemble is trying to do based on its 250mb jet as well as the H7 RH fields. The RH comparisons are below, the latest 15z run first, and the prior 09z run second. Definitely heading in the right direction. Verbatim might not be there yet though, but I like how the PV is ready to drop in at 87 hrs. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/15/images/sref_70r_081s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_70r_087s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Thanks Earthlight. The H7 RH field at 87 hrs on the 15z SREFs looked really nice IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 euro ens mean is the same as the op, ots fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yeah that's not good, interested in seeing the 18z gfs, but moreso the 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yeah that's not good, interested in seeing the 18z gfs, but moreso the 0z gfs do any of the euro individual members have a hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 do any of the euro individual members have a hit? Good question. Some far OTS solutions could skew the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We really need to see a significant move towards a stronger s/w on the 00z euro. We do still have time, this is true, but we need to see some movement towards the GFS or this may soon be another lost cause. I do find it comforting to know that the GFS came onto the coastal solution without a full phase, given that it has a known bias towards phasing pieces of energy. Also interesting that it's the NW outlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 120 hrs ecm Means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm looking at the 18Z NAM rolling out now to 75 hours.. John was mentioning before the nice jet structure at hour 84 from this morning's run.. It still looks nice at 18Z. There is also a 150 knot jet streak off the Pacific looking about ready to crash into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 18z NAM is actually more amplified aloft with the jet structure than the 12z GFS--and it also has the shortwave flying southeast from MT/UT in a similar fashion. Not too bad, we will have to see the 'ol reliable DGEX later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Have past storms trended W on the Euro? and have also suppressed further. everything is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 15z eta at hr 84, looks pretty decent with a low over northeast georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 what a beaut.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 18z NAM is actually more amplified aloft with the jet structure than the 12z GFS--and it also has the shortwave flying southeast from MT/UT in a similar fashion. Not too bad, we will have to see the 'ol reliable DGEX later on. yep.. it's a bit subtle.. but it's definitely there and is definitely important.. looks like it comes ashore over Oregon, though Idaho and sort of shrears out a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 12z GFS doesn't phase the PV with the southern stream s/w, and the 18z NAM does. Doesn't seem like a thread the needle situation to me as both of those solutions at H5 could produce a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 12z GFS doesn't phase the PV with the southern stream s/w, and the 18z NAM does. Doesn't seem like a thread the needle situation to me as both of those solutions at H5 could produce a snowstorm. agreed its nice to see the possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 12z GFS doesn't phase the PV with the southern stream s/w, and the 18z NAM does. Doesn't seem like a thread the needle situation to me as both of those solutions at H5 could produce a snowstorm. Agree, nam is trying to phase in the PV, and its sure dropping down in a hurry and its placemement looks more than ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 NWS forecast Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It looks a bit more impressive than the OP with the sfc config...less strung out. Overall its probably a good sign...usually the Euro ensemble mean is a bit SE of the OP run, so having it look like it right now is ok. Will ORH on the Euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Next person that says this is a thread the needle situation is getting reported. I am black ops mod... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 ECMWF ensembles are a bit more organized with the surface low and less strung out, def. a small good sign as they usually fall SE of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Agree, nam is trying to phase in the PV, and its sure dropping down in a hurry and its placemement looks more than ideal. Interesting...the GFS did not phase the PV rather had the energy dropping down from the PAC NW and phased that with the energy in TX, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Interesting...the GFS did not phase the PV rather had the energy dropping down from the PAC NW and phased that with the energy in TX, Which basically means, prepare for something completely different in about 40 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Which basically means, prepare for something completely different in about 40 minutes. lol buckle up this is gonna be a bumpy ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 lol buckle up this is gonna be a bumpy ride still 114-120 hours left on it. keep that in mind when/if the 18z goes out to sea, or shows a blizzard that would leave us without power for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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