December 18-20 Potential Talking Points

[earthlight]

Here's a few days later for visualization, where we see an absolutely classic look as far as amplifying H5 patterns in relation to big east coast snow events are concerned. This all traces back to the elongated Polar Vortex and the huge Greenland/Canadian retrograding block.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f150.gif

[Kaner587]

I'm honestly sitting here in amazement right now about how classic everything looks from the track to the west based -NAO etc. Now onto what can (and probably will with our luck) go wrong...

[tornadojay]

I fell asleep during the middle of the model run. What a great way to wake back up.

[ptb127]

I think people like me and ptb certainly have our reasons for worry...we were both screwed on some of the recent big ones.

Not in a terrible spot.. 192 0z GFS 60 hr precip has us on the .5-.75 total. Higher ratios then on the coast so that could help us out too. Only takes a small shift to the west to really help us out.

[bmc10]

The GFS is now in agreement with the EURO with more pronounced ridging and a less progressive pattern.

[famartin]

Am I the only one who thinks its NOT good to have all the models showing a big storm 7 days out? When was the last time that this happened, and the result was a big storm?

[Kaner587]

Am I the only one who thinks its NOT good to have all the models showing a big storm 7 days out? When was the last time that this happened, and the result was a big storm?

I think we all share this sentiment. Unfortunately that is what we've been dealt so who knows maybe the models are having an easier time sorting this out due to the anomalous nature of the -NAO and AO with active pacific jet. Or maybe I'm just grasping at straws but we shall see

[Isotherm]

Am I the only one who thinks its NOT good to have all the models showing a big storm 7 days out? When was the last time that this happened, and the result was a big storm?

I agree it's a bit scary/concerning, but at the same time, it could mean that this event will be major. The 93 superstorm and 96 blizzard were both pegged about a week in advance on modelling. The signalling may be so strong that the guidance is converging faster than normally wold be the case (generally by day 3-4 I'd say with most events).

[earthlight]

I agree it's a bit scary/concerning, but at the same time, it could mean that this event will be major. The 93 superstorm and 96 blizzard were both pegged about a week in advance on modelling. The signalling may be so strong that the guidance is converging faster than normally wold be the case (generally by day 3-4 I'd say with most events).

I wouldn't be surprised if the guidance lost this event for a few days beginning tomorrow afternoon. It seems like at least one or two of the major models will always do that during the big ones.

[jrodd321]

Am I the only one who thinks its NOT good to have all the models showing a big storm 7 days out? When was the last time that this happened, and the result was a big storm?

I remember sitting here last week watching the Euro/GGEM show a cutter. Look how that turned out. It can happen.

[famartin]

I agree it's a bit scary/concerning, but at the same time, it could mean that this event will be major. The 93 superstorm and 96 blizzard were both pegged about a week in advance on modelling. The signalling may be so strong that the guidance is converging faster than normally wold be the case (generally by day 3-4 I'd say with most events).

I don't know about 93, but I do know that the GFS had no clue before 96... it only caught on within 2 days at most.

[Chris L]

Am I the only one who thinks its NOT good to have all the models showing a big storm 7 days out? When was the last time that this happened, and the result was a big storm?

March 1993, January 1996, January 2005, February 2010 and February 2003...

There might be more

[Isotherm]

I don't know about 93, but I do know that the GFS had no clue before 96... it only caught on within 2 days at most.

Yeah, I was mostly referring to the Euro w/ those two events.

[famartin]

I remember sitting here last week watching the Euro/GGEM show a cutter. Look how that turned out. It can happen.

This thing wasn't just a cutter... it cut clear across the Plains. It seemed like the absolutely most NW solution possible verified.

So watch the low end up so close to the coast, or on land, that it rains along I-95

[famartin]

March 1993, January 1996, January 2005, February 2010...

There might be more.

I said all.

Unless the GFS really is a whole lot better than it used to be, the GFS showing a storm now is almost like the kiss-of-death.

[earthlight]

Here's the 00z GFS H5 depiction (thanks Ian) looped...just a terrific progression and really revealing of the potential.

[bmc10]

Am I the only one who thinks its NOT good to have all the models showing a big storm 7 days out? When was the last time that this happened, and the result was a big storm?

I believe often. Last year on numerous occasions the models showed large hits in the 5-8 day range. Granted the models will vary from run to run, and its even possible they completely drop the idea at some point (which often happens) and then bring it back, regardless its not unfair to say something might happen next weekend. The last storm was showed by the models from 7+ days out, it happened as depicted. What it comes down to is if you expect something epic, you might get burned. Having optimism that something might evolve is not unreasonable, and it is our first potential of the season.

[Isotherm]

I wouldn't be surprised if the guidance lost this event for a few days beginning tomorrow afternoon. It seems like at least one or two of the major models will always do that during the big ones.

Agree. I'd say it'd be very difficult to keep every run of the models as the exact same solution we're seeing today. Most of these off runs will probably depict an out to sea solution. Another thing I've noticed with our bigger storms - very rarely do storms trend SE with time on model proggs. In other words, usually an event depicted as a Lakes cutter at D5-7 stays that way, while our best events come with hits or out to sea scenarios depicted at D5-7.

[famartin]

I believe often. Last year on numerous occasions the models showed large hits in the 5-8 day range. Granted the models will vary from run to run, and its even possible they completely drop the idea at some point (which often happens) and then bring it back, regardless its not unfair to say something might happen next weekend. The last storm was showed by the models from 7+ days out, it happened as depicted. What it comes down to is if you expect something epic, you might get burned. Having optimism that something might evolve is not unreasonable, and it is our first potential of the season.

See my post about this last storm taking the most NW track imaginable.

[earthlight]

See my post about this last storm taking the most NW track imaginable.

I can't really imagine a track close and tucked into the coast (furthest NW track) given the H5 depiction currently modeled as early as 72-84 hours out from 00z tonight. It's going to take some significant changes to get something on the coastal plain with the degree of Greenland and Canadian ridging as well as the vortex over Southeast Canada.

[jrodd321]

See my post about this last storm taking the most NW track imaginable.

Yea but wasn't the GFS the only model last week showing the snowstorm track for us in the 7 days out? While DT and everyone else was saying how the Euro cutter track is just what the pattern supported at the time and that's why it was the most likely solution?

Isn't this pattern different now and doesn't support the cutter?

[bmc10]

See my post about this last storm taking the most NW track imaginable.

Yes my apologies, I should have said, it had the idea of an interior storm which was correct. Don't think this next storm would be able to cut interior with the upper level features present. So either its a hit or out to sea most likely. Think the pattern is supportive, just need the phase, and any ridging out west might help slow this pattern down and let the shortwave dig/amplify/and turn the trough negative.

[A-L-E-X]

See my post about this last storm taking the most NW track imaginable.

You just dont want to come back out east

[Weathergun]

I don't see this storm hugging the coast or tracking inland, unless there is a full PV phase with southern stream. The greater threat is more of it being too flat or suppressed. The ridging out West on the 0z/13 GFS is just enough to allow a piece of the PV dive and phase in.

[NortheastPAWx]

Is there room for this storm just to shift 50 miles west?

[famartin]

You just dont want to come back out east

Not really, no, now that you mention it The funny thing is, this storm falls perfectly within a weekend for me, so I could come back east with no problems. I've just grown to detest the hassle of flying lately...

But seriously, the "kiss-of-death" from the GFS in year's past really was when it showed a major hit 7 days out. It usually is too far SE. Maybe in this case the SE solution ends up correct. I'd honestly have more interest in this event if it didn't show I-95 getting plastered right now.

Still plenty of time to track this, and yeah, the GFS could be right on. I wouldn't bet on it, though.

Remember that storm from Feb 07 which was modeled to blast DC for several days, which then shifted north and hit Burlington VT? As we saw from the GFS just this last week, it can still be WAY off at this time range.

[A-L-E-X]

Not really, no, now that you mention it   The funny thing is, this storm falls perfectly within a weekend for me, so I could come back east with no problems.  I've just grown to detest the hassle of flying lately...

But seriously, the "kiss-of-death" from the GFS in year's past really was when it showed a major hit 7 days out.  It usually is too far SE.  Maybe in this case the SE solution ends up correct.  I'd honestly have more interest in this event if it didn't show I-95 getting plastered right now.  

Still plenty of time to track this, and yeah, the GFS could be right on.  I wouldn't bet on it, though.

Remember that storm from Feb 07 which was modeled to blast DC for several days, which then shifted north and hit Burlington VT?  As we saw from the GFS just this last week, it can still be WAY off at this time range.

Yeah I wrote about 2/07 earlier-- we really have to be guarded about that.  There were more snowfall gradient colors on that GFS map with 2/07 than Ive ever seen before lol.    I dont know what the Euro was showing this far out with that storm though.

[Weathergun]

I don't like that the GFS has this big storm already either. I thought it might show something more tonight. But it would be flat or father SE.

[Kaner587]

Not really, no, now that you mention it The funny thing is, this storm falls perfectly within a weekend for me, so I could come back east with no problems. I've just grown to detest the hassle of flying lately...

But seriously, the "kiss-of-death" from the GFS in year's past really was when it showed a major hit 7 days out. It usually is too far SE. Maybe in this case the SE solution ends up correct. I'd honestly have more interest in this event if it didn't show I-95 getting plastered right now.

Still plenty of time to track this, and yeah, the GFS could be right on. I wouldn't bet on it, though.

Remember that storm from Feb 07 which was modeled to blast DC for several days, which then shifted north and hit Burlington VT? As we saw from the GFS just this last week, it can still be WAY off at this time range.

I get your skepticism at this juncture, but making a comparison to Feb 2007? How similar were the patterns?

[Isotherm]

Yea but wasn't the GFS the only model last week showing the snowstorm track for us in the 7 days out? While DT and everyone else was saying how the Euro cutter track is just what the pattern supported at the time and that's why it was the most likely solution?

Isn't this pattern different now and doesn't support the cutter?

You're correct, a lakes cutter will definitely not happen in this pattern w/ a strong -AO and west based -NAO block. Better chance of an out to sea scenario than inland runner/cutter. I can envision a coastal hugger though, where the big cities change over to rain, if the PV orients itself further SW, causing heights to rise more along the EC.