December 18-20 Potential Talking Points

[GD0815]

And as seasoned vets we know how these storms usually work out. Trend west with in 3 days or so. Honestly at 120 hours i love how thing look.

to be fair, we are dealing with a really strong block here, so the euro's solution is certainly realistic, i dont think you can just hope for a general trend west here. Not to say that it cant come up the coast, just that the Euro should give everyone pause.

[Kaner587]

to be fair, we are dealing with a really strong block here, so the euro's solution is certainly realistic, i dont think you can just hope for a general trend west here. Not to say that it cant come up the coast, just that the Euro should give everyone pause.

which it has...but its not like the euro doesn't have the same players on the field, it does it just carries them out slightly differently. If the EURO was on board the excitement would be much higher, so for now we watch and wait.

[earthlight]

For the record, if Colin is from Catasaqua, that is in eastern PA in the Lehigh Valley, which is def part of this subforum, no? If not, I guess I'm in the wrong place, too!

No, you guys are in the right place. Dont worry about that comment.

Again, let's put that to rest and try to continue discussion regarding the storm setup.

[HSNN4]

Why not it excited it's weather, not life and death !! All the fun is tracking these systems and those of us doing it for years I am sure we are all use to the disappointment when these systems do not come to pass.

[Feb]

to be fair, we are dealing with a really strong block here, so the euro's solution is certainly realistic, i dont think you can just hope for a general trend west here. Not to say that it cant come up the coast, just that the Euro should give everyone pause.

Agreed. I lived 46+ years and have had my share of thrills and disappojtements when it comes to snowstorms. The main thing i learned though is it's never worth getting bent out of shape just because you don't get snow. Colin hasn't learned that lesson yet.

[KEITH L.I]

Why not it excited it's weather, not life and death !! All the fun is tracking these systems and those of us doing it for years I am sure we are all use to the disappointment when these systems do not come to pass.

totally agree..ya know we are all weather lovers, but sometimes I think we take it to serious..the main thing is..YOU HAVE NO CONTROL...sort of like watching your favorite sport teams..whatever is gonna happen is gonna happen, no matter how many times you refresh on a model run..it's fun to track,but it's not life or death..sometimes you get a blizzard, but most times it's a miss

[winterwx21]

to be fair, we are dealing with a really strong block here, so the euro's solution is certainly realistic, i dont think you can just hope for a general trend west here. Not to say that it cant come up the coast, just that the Euro should give everyone pause.

I agree. And the thing that concerns me most is the lack of a good ridge out at the west coast. An unphased, flat southern solution DOES make sense. But that doesn't mean we can't get a storm. There are things in our favor as well. It just requires very good timing. Unlikely in my mind, but we do have a chance at least.

[pazzo83]

Have past storms trended W on the Euro?

[KEITH L.I]

Have past storms trended W on the Euro?

yep there have been quite a few..the last one was Dec 19th last year..again it was a totally different setup

[LVblizzard]

Have past storms trended W on the Euro?

December 19, 2009 was an I-95 S&E event until 2 days before the storm IIRC.

[Nikolai]

Have past storms trended W on the Euro?

West and N... all the major events last winter started S on every model, including the EURO, and only within 72-96 hours did they generally begin to show impacts from DC on N.

[IsentropicLift]

The way things have been going lately, I wouldn't be suprised if the 18z gfs went OTS. Still way too early to make a call either way. I don't understand why some people take one model run so literaly. Of course i'm absolutly in love with the 12z gfs but I can count on one hand the amount of times a solution like that has verified in my lifetime.

[Stormlover74]

Exactly. And its not worth getting bent out of shape over or resorting to name calling or things like that because someone has a differing opinion.

totally agree..ya know we are all weather lovers, but sometimes I think we take it to serious..the main thing is..YOU HAVE NO CONTROL...sort of like watching your favorite sport teams..whatever is gonna happen is gonna happen, no matter how many times you refresh on a model run..it's fun to track,but it's not life or death..sometimes you get a blizzard, but most times it's a miss

[Stormlover74]

That's true of some of the storms like the Dec 19th and the late Jan one that hit VA/DC up to south Jersey. But others looked good for NYC and then ended up suppressed way to the south. I remember one particular storm where models 'trended' north and west for a few days, all showed a good hit about 4 days out and then in the end the storm stayed way south (not Feb 5-6th)

West and N... all the major events last winter started S on every model, including the EURO, and only within 72-96 hours did they generally begin to show impacts from DC on N.

[cleetussnow]

The Euro doesn't SEEM to make large run to run jumps like the GFS, although I don't have any figures to support that. This far out anything can happen. I would wager neither of today's 12Z are the correct solution.

[earthlight]

December 19, 2009 was an I-95 S&E event until 2 days before the storm IIRC.

For kicks and giggles, at this range on this exact date late year we were looking at the exact same solution on most models, with the exact same trend slowly occurring too.

[Kaner587]

For kicks and giggles, at this range on this exact date late year we were looking at the exact same solution on most models, with the exact same trend slowly occurring too.

with what "seemed" to be an overpowering confluent flow over maine which ended up being enough miles north to allow the storm to come up the coast slightly

[cleetussnow]

For kicks and giggles, at this range on this exact date late year we were looking at the exact same solution on most models, with the exact same trend slowly occurring too.

pretty telling for those living and dying by model runs.

[ace0927]

I do not think that is 200-300 miles off the coast...

Again i do not see much difference between the two as far as low placement is concerned....and at 120 hrs out...

the UKMET at h120 would imply a NW pull to the SLP....that is a very impressive h5 signature

[earthlight]

Lol, check out the GFS's lift in the snow growth region from the 12z run at KBDR.

[Chris L]

For kicks and giggles, at this range on this exact date late year we were looking at the exact same solution on most models, with the exact same trend slowly occurring too.

Yes we were. I recall many people crying about the GFS being out to sea, ECMWF wasn't creeping the coast....

Go figure, one year later, its the same issues. (Granted different setup), but worth noting.

[blizzardof09]

at this time i think its a fair bet to just watch and study the models and not panic over a forecast its still like 5-6 days out and alot is gonna change

[Alpha5]

I know the BDR graph shows some incredible omega values but what is generally considered good omega? -12 or better?

[tornadojay]

It's funny. Last year, I had tickets to see Rock of Ages on 12/19 and couldn't go because of snow. They honored my tickets but still haven't had the chance to pick another date. This year I have concert tickets for the 17th and 18th.. looks like I might just be able to squeeze that in (assuming we get the storm). That would have stunk if I got screwed by snow 2 years in a row, and pretty much the same exact time frame.

[earthlight]

Surprised at the lack of talk regarding the NAM. It's a ways out, but this is a very favorable depiction for bringing the surface low near to the coast--impressive H300 jet structure.

[tornadojay]

Surprised at the lack of talk regarding the NAM. It's a ways out, but this is a very favorable depiction for bringing the surface low near to the coast--impressive H300 jet structure.

yep... good observation, John. I haven't looked at the NAM, much less, Jet stream levels in quite some time.. Also like that boat load of energy headed in from the Pacific as well.

[earthlight]

yep... good observation, John. I haven't looked at the NAM, much less, Jet stream levels in quite some time.. Also like that boat load of energy headed in from the Pacific as well.

Yup, that Pacific energy and the shortwave over MT/UT is what drives this thing home on the GFS, check out the H3 depiction on the 12z OP GFS at 114 hours. Classic height field and jet stream orientation. All speculation at this point but we're 120 hours out and I like where we stand.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_300_114s.gif

[tombo82685]

15z sref at 81 compared to 9z sref at 87 at h5

[yoda]

I know its way out there... but what do you think of the 15z SREFs at 84 and 87 earthlight?

[tornadojay]

Yup, that Pacific energy and the shortwave over MT/UT is what drives this thing home on the GFS, check out the H3 depiction on the 12z OP GFS at 114 hours. Classic height field and jet stream orientation. All speculation at this point but we're 120 hours out and I like where we stand.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_300_114s.gif

wow, yea.. very nice. I hadn't looked at that either. We are in a good place at this point in time.. no complaints... just, pleeeease... make the storm Sunday to Monday. I'm going to see Weezer on Friday and Saturday night in Manhattan.