PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 ukie is not a hit. it's the gfs vs the world and we know how that usually turns out. needed a big shift today from the models and it didn't happen. UKMET definitely hits DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 hr 114 has sub 998 low 150 miles east of hatteras, looks to move ots...just didnt neg tilt, it was slower and amped but didnt get that last ump to turn it up so no negative tilt? hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Don't really see how i'm wrong...gfs is clearly on its own. euro was a slight improvement but nothing major. i don't see a reason to anticipate a major snowstorm at the moment. UKIE was a hit.. GGEM ensembles are a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 My Wxsim module shows 9 to 15" for the NW Philly Burbs beginning just before midnight on Saturday....this will only change 15 more times before verification Saturday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 24. Wind north around 5 mph in the evening, becoming 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Sunday: Dense overcast. Snow very likely. High 27. Wind north around 15 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the morning, becoming 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 6 to 10 inches. Sunday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 25. Wind north-northwest around 21 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 ukie is not a hit. it's the gfs vs the world and we know how that usually turns out. needed a big shift today from the models and it didn't happen. We didn't need a big shift today. We need it by 0z Thursday, which for the Colin's around the world is 3 more main runs. I'm not bullish on it happening, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Colin wrote: ukie is not a hit. it's the gfs vs the world and we know how that usually turns out. needed a big shift today from the models and it didn't happen. Since when do we look for a "hit" on all models this far out? What we are looking for is a storm and a general location. Every model shows a storm, and the location varies from in or near the sweet spot for east coast snow to just a bit south and east. Which is similar to a lot of the modeling for events for the EC 4-5 days out. Not saying it is going to snow, just that I think you are way off base in seeing consistency in the models for a "close but not cigar" solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 There is no reason to officially call for a snowstorm at this time...but the players all seem to be available...it's just determining if they can time themselves correctly and mix properly. But you can't simply say there is not chance at this time. Colin, it's freakin Tuesday... I'm in no way saying there isn't a chance. I'm just saying it's foolish to get excited for something based on the GFS. It's the only model showing a solution like that at this time. There are many things that can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 hr 126 sub 988 about 300 miles east of cape cod, brushes them with some precip you can fully expect the 0Z GFS to follow suit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Not a bad trend, definitely headed in the right direction. Just not as much as most would have wanted to see. With the storm sitting 100 miles east off the coast at 120 hours, I am not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 you can fully expect the 0Z GFS to follow suit.... I agree...gfs has been real inconsistent but the euro/ggem have been showing a miss for a few runs now and are much more consistent. it was gfs/uk vs the euro/ggem with the last storm and we saw how that worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 you can fully expect the 0Z GFS to follow suit.... any scientific reasoning behind this or you just wanted to post your negative feelings here for all to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I agree...gfs has been real inconsistent but the euro/ggem have been showing a miss for a few runs now and are much more consistent. it was gfs/uk vs the euro/ggem with the last storm and we saw how that worked out. actually it is more like the gfs/gfs ensembles/ggem ensembles/ukie/nogaps vs euro/ggem We'll see where the euro ensembles are, but the euro trend was west of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 I agree...gfs has been real inconsistent but the euro/ggem have been showing a miss for a few runs now and are much more consistent. it was gfs/uk vs the euro/ggem with the last storm and we saw how that worked out. You can have your opinion, but don't fabricate...which you are doing a little of here. The GFS has had the same h5 depiction for three runs in a row now, 00 and 06z were literally miles away from coming west and 12z finally did. Same general depiction. You can say the same for the Ukie as well, we are going on two straight days of it showing a bomb. Not saying it's correct, just giving you a counter-point. You also can consider the GFS Ens coming 150 miles west, and the GEM ensembles looking nothing like the OP, as well as the euro amplifying aloft compared to 00z. So we have fair points on both ends of the argument here. And lots not forget the storm is 120 hours out. You and I both know we are aren't converging on anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I agree...gfs has been real inconsistent but the euro/ggem have been showing a miss for a few runs now and are much more consistent. it was gfs/uk vs the euro/ggem with the last storm and we saw how that worked out. GFS has been pretty consistent with 4 out of its last 7 runs showing a snowstorm in one way shape form or another... ECM on the other hand had 4 runs where it had a big major east coast storm and then lost it and ever since has been backing in westwards... UKMET is about 100-150 miles off the coast at 120 hrs which is basically the same spot the ECM is... GGEM is about the only model that would be completely different and its an outlier to its ensembles ... Not really sure what models you have been following but GFS probably has been the most consistent of majority... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You can have your opinion, but don't fabricate...which you are doing a little of here. The GFS has had the same h5 depiction for three runs in a row now, 00 and 06z were literally miles away from coming west and 12z finally did. Same general depiction. You can say the same for the Ukie as well, we are going on two straight days of it showing a bomb. Not saying it's correct, just giving you a counter-point. You also can consider the GFS Ens coming 150 miles west, and the GEM ensembles looking nothing like the OP, as well as the euro amplifying aloft compared to 00z. So we have fair points on both ends of the argument here. And lots not forget the storm is 120 hours out. You and I both know we are aren't converging on anything right now. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS has been pretty consistent with 4 out of its last 7 runs showing a snowstorm in one way shape form or another... ECM on the other hand had 4 runs where it had a big major east coast storm and then lost it and ever since has been backing in westwards... UKMET is about 100-150 miles off the coast at 120 hrs which is basically the same spot the ECM is... GGEM is about the only model that would be completely different and its an outlier to its ensembles ... Not really sure what models you have been following but GFS probably has been the most consistent of majority... Euro is a lot more than 100-150 miles off the coast...so it is not like the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Euro is a lot more than 100-150 miles off the coast...so it is not like the UKMET. ya if the UKMET is in fact 100-150 miles off the coast that is pretty much a great location. EURO looks more like 250+ and I think tombo/allsnow said its like 300-400 east of the jersey shore at that latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 ya if the UKMET is in fact 100-150 miles off the coast that is pretty much a great location for coastal areas---maybe 50 miles further west for everyone. EURO looks more like 250+ and I think tombo/allsnow said its like 300-400 east of the jersey shore at that latitude yeah, it's way out there...not as much as the ggem though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Euro is a lot more than 100-150 miles off the coast...so it is not like the UKMET. Its upper air solution looks considerably better than 0z. The polar vortex looks to retrograde faster, and the trough that develops the low sharpened from 0z, meaning that perhaps the storm has room to strengthen and come SW on future runs. We also have to look at ensembles, and at least on the GFS/GGEM today, quite a few of them have a big storm. I think a key here is if the shortwave that heads over the northern Rockies can phase with the STJ energy over Texas and form a negatively tilted southern stream. Models are all over the place with the placement of those features, their strength, and where/if they eventually phase. If they do, it increases our chances considerably. The PV is increasingly looking to be an outside participant that doesn't phase until the storm is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Euro is a lot more than 100-150 miles off the coast...so it is not like the UKMET. I do not think that is 200-300 miles off the coast... Again i do not see much difference between the two as far as low placement is concerned....and at 120 hrs out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 yeah, it's way out there...not as much as the ggem though. It would take a great deal to get big snows into central PA, not impossible but we would need to see decent changes. People on the coasts are much more likely to get hit with this type of evolution. This might be a Feb 2006 type deal where we were getting hammered on the coast and you would see cirrus to your east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 yeah, it's way out there...not as much as the ggem though. if I can say one thing colin I think you need to refocus your energy here and stop trying to tell us not to get excited. MOST of us are seasoned vets in this arena and while excited by any threat a good deal of cautious optimism is always needed. Lets say at this point all the models were showing a gigantic storm...that would be great, and I think everyone would have a right to be excited, but our first snowflake still wouldnt fall for almost 6 days! That would make everyone nervous as one small change in the s/w coming out of the pacific, or orientation of the PV etc f's the whole thing up. Right now we need to be happy there is a threat and leave it at that, you dont need to play the role of our conscience telling us not to get excited. Those who know whats going on have their expectations exactly where they should be at this point, and for those who dont? well nothing you say is going to change their opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 ya if the UKMET is in fact 100-150 miles off the coast that is pretty much a great location. EURO looks more like 250+ and I think tombo/allsnow said its like 300-400 east of the jersey shore at that latitude Euro is def. not 400 mils east of the jersey shore. That is definitely stretching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Remember the Euro had this storm consistently over last weekend, it wasnt until 0z Monday that it hooked on to the further east solution, but has been coming slowly west ever since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Euro is def. not 400 mils east of the jersey shore. That is definitely stretching it. not my words...it does look more like 200-300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Euro is def. not 400 mils east of the jersey shore. That is definitely stretching it. at our latitude it is maybe not 400 but 300 yea, the closest it comes is prob about 200 or so miles. Do it like this, take where the storm is and match the state of pa up to it. Pa is about 325-350 miles long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Let's just bury the whole thing please. This is a regional discussion thread, not a NYC specific thread. Colin has his fair points, everybody knows about his mentality in general. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We are still days away from this event, and the conclusion is far from determined. All of you need to relax and lets things unfold. Models will get a better handle on the elements coming into play as the hours and days progress and accordingly you will see further adjustments. No need to panic, and anyone calling for either a miss or a hit is being unrealistic. What it all comes down to is the potential is there, the pattern aloft is supportive, and we have time to work things out before we come to a conclusion on how this all will unfold. So stop with all this back and for non-sense and definitive answers on what will happen, BECAUSE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE AT THIS JUNCTURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We might not know until we are 72-84 hours out where the exact timing might happen, so conflicting situations will occur. IMO it depends on how fast the shortwave can follow out into the longwave trough and the Polar Vortex splits quick enough. We need both to get the situation we so desire for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 if I can say one thing colin I think you need to refocus your energy here and stop trying to tell us not to get excited. MOST of us are seasoned vets in this arena and while excited by any threat a good deal of cautious optimism is always needed. Lets say at this point all the models were showing a gigantic storm...that would be great, and I think everyone would have a right to be excited, but our first snowflake still wouldnt fall for almost 6 days! That would make everyone nervous as one small change in the s/w coming out of the pacific, or orientation of the PV etc f's the whole thing up. Right now we need to be happy there is a threat and leave it at that, you dont need to play the role of our conscience telling us not to get excited. Those who know whats going on have their expectations exactly where they should be at this point, and for those who dont? well nothing you say is going to change their opinion And as seasoned vets we know how these storms usually work out. Trend west with in 3 days or so. Honestly at 120 hours i love how thing look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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