December 18-20 Potential Talking Points

[phlwx]

yea im not liking the ggem not jumping on board and being very flat. This may be a lucy pulling the football away from charlie brown again.

If the GEM were bombing this sob out near the benchmark I'd be woofing like DT.

[Ridingtime]

So it's back to GFS/UK Met vs. the rest. Didn't we see this movie and outcome last week?

Wanna wait till the Euro comes out before making that statement?

[eduggs]

See how the 500mb low over Wisconsin never drops into our storm? That's what I mean by it not phasing. There is a height contour wrapping around it, but the 500mb low never dropped in!

I feel like the term "phase" is overused and oversimplified. I understand the concept when dealing with discrete waves, but with a convoluted setup with somewhat indecipherable streams and shortwaves, the concept starts to lose meaning. Clearly there are some that can grasp the subtle implications better than I can.

The longwave trof is obviously there for the taking. A shortwave on the upstream side of a trof and its associated vorticity advection will always cause a sharpening/negative tilting of the trof. It then comes down to how strong of a shortwave (ie how large a chunk of the vortex), drops into or "phases" with the longwave trof... and also how soon this happens. It will happen eventually, but as has been stead 1000 times we need it to happen in time for a neutral trof axis before it reaches the coast.

So I don't care if we get a complete phase or whatever that means... just that a strong enough shortwave successfully manipulates the height field and ideally that we get a healthy mid/upper level cutoff SE of our region.

[Sundog]

Wanna wait till the Euro comes out before making that statement?

Plus the NAM looked good for 84 hours. Premature statement indeed.

[Manny]

Just saw the GFS. A great battle happening, but once I saw how strong that s/w was, there was room for it to come up with the coast.

[LocoAko]

funny to look at but bufkit has 30 inches for phl....again didnt we play this game last time ukie and gfs vs gem and maybe euro?

The 12Z GFS BUFKIT has 18" for PHL, not 30".

[SnowGoose69]

Plus the NAM looked good for 84 hours. Premature statement indeed.

The NAM almost always has inland runners way inland and coastal systems closer to the coast in the 72-84 hour range, so I'm not surprised it seemed to be leaning that way.

[SACRUS]

The GFS Ensemble means are significantly more amplified and closer to the coast compared to last nights 00z

Thanks earthlite. Can someone post the maps of the mean?

[tombo82685]

The 12Z GFS BUFKIT has 18" for PHL, not 30".

this one i have shows 30, unless it an old run

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kphl.dat

[NortheastPAWx]

Thanks earthlite. Can someone post the maps of the mean?

12z/132: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12132.gif

Vs.

0z/144: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12144.gif

A good couple hundred miles west.

[earthlight]

Thanks earthlite. Can someone post the maps of the mean?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12132.gif

[foggy]

this one i have shows 30, unless it an old run

http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_kphl.dat

That's is the new run, it just upated.

[earthlight]

The mean H5 heights are trying to drop the PV in to phase, and also have a stronger southern stream vort. All around win on the GFS right now, but we need the other big models to cooperate within the next few days.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble500mbHGHTNA120.gif

[phlwx]

this one i have shows 30, unless it an old run

http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_kphl.dat

I don't BUFKIT on ratios as far as I could throw the supercomputer its run on. The QPF is 1.83...

[earthlight]

GGEM ensembles are well northwest of the Operational, not even really close.

[blazess556]

GGEM ensembles show the op run is out to lunch

[tombo82685]

first storm at hr 54 and 60 gives dc about an inch of snow

[yoda]

UKIE at 96 -- 1005 near Cape Hatteras NC area

[blazess556]

Euro out to 72 hrs on ewall

[jrodd321]

GGEM ensembles are well northwest of the Operational, not even really close.

That really is amazing how not one ensemble member shows that absolute flat look that the op run showed. Definitely a red flag for the GEM.

[Kaner587]

That really is amazing how not one ensemble member shows that absolute flat look that the op run showed. Definitely a red flag for the GEM.

dat da truth

[tombo82685]

so far this looks a lot better than 0z, slower s/w

[phlwx]

pretty similar to 0z but slower by about 12 hours

it's close call but not a hit.

[Dsnowx53]

so far this looks a lot better than 0z, slower s/w

It's definitely better, but I'm not sure it will be enough.

[tombo82685]

hr 114 has sub 998 low 150 miles east of hatteras, looks to move ots...just didnt neg tilt, it was slower and amped but didnt get that last ump to turn it up

[Colin]

gfs seems to be on its own so far with the ukie, ggem, and euro out to sea. looks like models are beginning to converge on a close but no cigar scenario.

[Kmlwx]

hr 114 has sub 998 low 150 miles east of hatteras, looks to move ots...just didnt neg tilt, it was slower and amped but didnt get that last ump to turn it up

A move in the right direction I guess. Not happy about this but it definitely has time still. 0z tonight will be interesting to see if it keeps heading in that direction.

[tombo82685]

hr 126 sub 988 about 300 miles east of cape cod, brushes them with some precip

[North Balti Zen]

gfs seems to be on its own so far with the ukie, ggem, and euro out to sea. looks like models are beginning to converge on a close but no cigar scenario.

Thought I read that UK was not out to sea. And that GEM ensembles were way north and west of the op. Which is to say, I see no agreement between the models on any scenario.

[Colin]

Thought I read that UK was not out to sea. And that GEM ensembles were way north and west of the op. Which is to say, I see no agreement between the models on any scenario.

ukie is not a hit. it's the gfs vs the world and we know how that usually turns out. needed a big shift today from the models and it didn't happen.