Zir0b Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I think it's now appropriate to use this pic Basically looks like yesterday's 6z GFS even though it isn't a complete phase. Say thanks to the strong southern s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Hey Drun, Can you explain- how can you tell if it completely phases/ or not. I'm still not 100% clear. See how the 500mb low over Wisconsin never drops into our storm? That's what I mean by it not phasing. There is a height contour wrapping around it, but the 500mb low never dropped in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'd probably give up the rest of the winter to have this solution play out. 24 HOURS of comma head insanity around the area. Given omegas and VV's it would likely be another thundersnow setup as well. The best part is how the thing stalls out because of how blocked up eastern Canada is. I'm not pulling the trigger yet because of how volatile this whole setup is and how quickly it can change based on the S/W strength, phasing, and placement of the polar vortex, but if by Thursday this is still appearing on the models, I definitely will be. Definitely tons of potential with this pattern, and could be a prolific snow producer if the blocking upstream holds (with a suitable storm track as well). This doesn't seem like the kind of storm to dump heavy snow for 6-8 hours and lift out in a progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 I think this is definitely a keeper http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I agree...but the GFS is def. trending towards a very strong shortwave. It's been going that way for several runs. Given the fact that it's usually mundane, who knows..it might be on to something. Maybe a huge coup for the Ukie? Who knows...still 120 hours out as was the NAM this run, don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 There's no phase with the northern stream. The GFS is just ridiculously strong and amplfied with the southern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 See how the 500mb low over Wisconsin never drops into our storm? That's what I mean by it not phasing. There is a height contour wrapping around it, but the 500mb low never dropped in! The only pieces that phase are the S/W moving out of Idaho/WY and the weak S/W over north Texas during the 84hr panel. This wave coming out of the upper Rockies has been trending stronger on subsequent runs, and allowing for strong amplification even without the PV phasing in. The blocked up flow does the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This really is very similar to last years first December snow storm. A lot of the factors depended on the split in the PV. As the PV elongates to split, it either does not split in time and creates more of a wall that does not allow for the storm to dig well nor go up the coast and instead go more west, ala what we saw here in the GFS 6z: Or the PV does split in time, creating a really nice gap between the two PV lobes allowing the trough to dig better and the storm to go right up between the gaps ala what we are seeing here in the GFS 12z: We want to keep seeing this trend of the PV elongating and splitting just right. It allows for the right track with whatever wave we have to work with, whether it phases fully or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 There's no phase with the northern stream. The GFS is just ridiculously strong and amplfied with the southern stream wave. It actually just phases in a shortwave over MT/UT which it has been doing for a few runs now. Check out the loop, once that shortwave hits the trough base the entire thing amplifies dramatically http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It actually just phases in a shortwave over MT/UT which it has been doing for a few runs now. Check out the loop, once that shortwave hits the trough base the entire thing amplifies dramatically http://www.meteo.psu...avnloopnew.html Thanks earthlight and Drun for explaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It actually just phases in a shortwave over MT/UT which it has been doing for a few runs now. Check out the loop, once that shortwave hits the trough base the entire thing amplifies dramatically http://www.meteo.psu...avnloopnew.html Yeah, I see that now. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 now imagine if this fully phases? UKMET type bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 The GFS Ensemble means are significantly more amplified and closer to the coast compared to last nights 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z GGEM is way out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Some of you guys are really jumping on board because of one dream run. What are the chances this actually verifies? I think it just has to do more with the fact that people are excited that there are still models showing this as an event for us., especially considering that people have been tracking this storm for a few days now. I don't think anybody is "jumping on board" yet per say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 yea im not liking the ggem not jumping on board and being very flat. This may be a lucy pulling the football away from charlie brown again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Some of you guys are really jumping on board because of one dream run. What are the chances this actually verifies? Are you serious? Have you been around? Many different models the past couple of days have been showing a good storm for this time frame. Nothing is set in stone yet, and things could change, but the potential is there and this is not just "one dream run." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I think this is definitely a keeper http://www.meteo.psu...VN_12z/f132.gif as pretty as we have seen (and we have seen plenty of pretty of the past year and a half).....wish the time stamp was h30 instead of h132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Some of you guys are really jumping on board because of one dream run. What are the chances this actually verifies? the way the GFS depicts it? probably very low....but there is justified excitement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Some of you guys are really jumping on board because of one dream run. What are the chances this actually verifies? Alot of people on here live and die with each an every model run. At least this far out, more than 84hrs things look more optimistic than pesimistic. If every single model was in agreement that this thing was staying supressed you would see alot less optimism on the board however that is not the case. This is around the time frame when you want to see things moving in the right direction and both the 12z gfs and nam look promising. I think a general comprimise is best at this point, and I have a feeling that HPC will follow suite. Unless the Euro is a far southern outlier I would expect that more mets will jump on board with this storm this afternoon. If nothing else, I find it hard to see how some of us dont get in on at least high end advisory type snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Some of you guys are really jumping on board because of one dream run. What are the chances this actually verifies? Not very likely. But it's one sol'n and increases the likelihood that A storm may develop. We won't get a better idea until the disturbance actually moves on shore tomorrow, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z GGEM is way out to sea Thats one of the grossest differences I can ever recall between the GEM and GFS on a given run, remember too the GEM tends to be too warm and west...if the NOGAPS is over Amsterdam on its 12Z run we're in trouble...again I'd like to see it be just outside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yea, I agree. GFS did this A LOT 2 years ago between day 4-6. 2 years ago? an entirely different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z NOGAPS https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2010121412∏=thkτ=132&set=Core 12z GFS ENS Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Like I've been saying, with the block, the southern jet is gonna slow down and phasing will occur imo. It comes down to timing, but I feel pretty good about a MECS. Oddly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 ukie is about to jump on board......i know it was a powerhouse last night......but buckeye posted the 12z in the general thread....looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 So it's back to GFS/UK Met vs. the rest. Didn't we see this movie and outcome last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I agree with paranormalwx... Im anxiously awaiting the euro to see what it shows. It's been a rollercoaster with this storm so far at least the potential storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 funny to look at but bufkit has 30 inches for phl....again didnt we play this game last time ukie and gfs vs gem and maybe euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Thats one of the grossest differences I can ever recall between the GEM and GFS on a given run, remember too the GEM tends to be too warm and west...if the NOGAPS is over Amsterdam on its 12Z run we're in trouble...again I'd like to see it be just outside the benchmark. Well you got your wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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