tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 what do you think tombo? i think the nam hints at an earlier phase with that PV and the s/w looks more amp'd on 500mb..They dont look that alike imo but i could be wrong yea it deff looks like it would phase faster than the gfs, the pv looks to have split and its dropping deff more amplified also. I wonder also, say we didnt have a phase with this, but most of the models are starting ti latch on to a somewhat se ridge and a front drapping through va or so. Wouldnt that way atleast move ne just from that ridging caused from the front being up in va? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 granted its the 84 hr nam, but i think it looks really good. I think what your seeing at 84hrs on the nam is the thing dt was talking about on the ggem and what the euro has. Its basically a front sitting there causing instability with some waves riding a long it. That definitely makes sense. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 yea it deff looks like it would phase faster than the gfs, the pv looks to have split and its dropping deff more amplified also. I wonder also, say we didnt have a phase with this, but most of the models are starting ti latch on to a somewhat se ridge and a front drapping through va or so. Wouldnt that way atleast move ne just from that ridging caused from the front being up in va? yeah i would assume that would cause higher heights along the east coast.. causing a NE motion..However, i think the main factor is that PV like last year at this date..And we all know who nailed that one down first (nam)..Looking over the NAM again, it really looks like it would go to town as that PV drops in from the lakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 here are the ggem indiv ens, same deal with the gfs a decent amt with solid hits a good amt with brushes http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSCMCPRS_0z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'd bet my life the 06Z GFS has the storm again...as a hit that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'd bet my life the 06Z GFS has the storm again...as a hit that is... Is that call out of "feeling"? or is it really lookin better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Is that call out of "feeling"? or is it really lookin better? He's a met and there is such a thing as intuition and it really works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 He's a met and there is such a thing as intuition and it really works. Thats fine by me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 See my post in the main americanwx section in the 18Z thread about how Joe Bastardi mentioned the 06Z and 18Z runs can sometimes pick up on what actually happens in the medium/long range with more consistency as far as storm track/pressure better than the 00Z or 12Z runs...in the short range the 12/00 runs are markedly better but for whatever reason I have noticed there is something to this theory...remember last week that the off hour runs kept showing the solution with the deep low in northern NY when many of the other runs were well west with a very strong primary...in the end the solution that verified IMO was closer to what many of those off hour runs were showing at times.....I could not tell you why this happens, perhaps the lack of upper air data into the off hour runs allows for the model to "grasp" the overall pattern better well into the future while the current upper air data while helping the near term may sort of cloud the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'd bet my life the 06Z GFS has the storm again...as a hit that is... Trough axis at 500 on the 6z gfs is not very sharp. Through 120 the storm is there but it's not pulling north (yet) edit 126 the storm looks to generally hit south/east of Philly and then perhaps se mass...we'll see the next couple of runs if that changes. edit #2 -- it's about 75-100 miles away from a "hit." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Trough axis at 500 on the 6z gfs is not very sharp. Through 120 the storm is there but it's not pulling north (yet) Doesn't look like it will either, looks pretty flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Trough axis at 500 on the 6z gfs is not very sharp. Through 120 the storm is there but it's not pulling north (yet) edit 126 the storm looks to generally hit south/east of Philly and then perhaps se mass...we'll see the next couple of runs if that changes. edit #2 -- it's about 75-100 miles away from a "hit." Sounds like it might be getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 126 starts to pull north a bit and further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Sounds like it might be getting closer. Normally, I don't compare 0 to 6 or 6 to 12...I usually compare 6/18 to each other since the data is "older" and they tend to behave more in tandem. This trended east from 18z yesterday. compared to 0z, the low center is more consolidated and it's phasing better but generally along the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 No one should be complaining about the 6z run. It looks fine. Storm is 100+ hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1995/us1219.php Watch how the little vort over the Great Lakes phases with the 500mb disturbance over the TN Valley...we want that sort of interaction to happen this time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 looking over everything this morning...still not very enthused about this weekend's potential. things need to start trending better rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'd bet my life the 06Z GFS has the storm again...as a hit that is... 6Z was a a miss - ut oh........But anyways - we were in the same basic situation a year ago exactly regarding the 12/19 2009 storm the previous tuesday it looked like it was a miss - it wasn't till the 12Z Thursday models came in that began to show a hit......too bad we don't have access to the Eastern forum archives to look back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Models (besides the UKMET) seem to agree on a close miss, with over 100 hours left, there is plenty of time for the PV energy to dive further south and phase earlier than the 0z models advertised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Models (besides the UKMET) seem to agree on a close miss, with over 100 hours left, there is plenty of time for the PV energy to dive further south and phase earlier than the 0z models advertised Hey guys, we really don't need 20 posts all saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 No one should be complaining about the 6z run. It looks fine. Storm is 100+ hours away. Damn close is good enough in this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We have noticed that this far out with potential coastal systems the GFS corrects further to the the coast as the system gets closer, this has been the case for the last few months, I think it's safe to say it's going to a be another day or so until the models get a good handle on this storm given the current pattern, Our current thinking for Northeast NJ is for a chance of snow on Sunday which I think at this point is a safe forecast since the system can go either way. Have a good day everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 126 starts to pull north a bit and further west In a year with a NW trend, that's about right where you'd want it. The problem is we have yet to determine if this winter will be a "NW trend" winter. 132 hrs out... plenty of time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We should be getting into better sampling range for UA data as we progress through the day. I would think by 12Z Wednesday we have a good general consensus as to what we should expect with this system. Expect mixed signals in terms of speed/amplification of the Southern s/w with wildly different solutions until that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Don't want to go off topic but did anyone listen to DT radio show last night? I missed it and was wondering what he had to say.. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Don't want to go off topic but did anyone listen to DT radio show last night? I missed it and was wondering what he had to say.. thanks. Good morning, you can try wxrisk.com he writes a nice discussion when he is in the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Good morning, you can try wxrisk.com he writes a nice discussion when he is in the mood. DT's tone sounds like he is starting to lean towards a flatter solution since most guidance is NOT phasing until too late and way off the coast. He's saying there's time for things to come together, but there's more to most guidance showing the flatter and East solution than just a mere SE bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Good morning, you can try wxrisk.com he writes a nice discussion when he is in the mood. He seems to be leaning a bit in favor of the storm being a meaningful event right now from what I see in his posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 DT's tone sounds like he is starting to lean towards a flatter solution since most guidance is NOT phasing until too late and way off the coast. He's saying there's time for things to come together, but there's more to most guidance showing the flatter and East solution than just a mere SE bias. Well, I just saw his latest post and that seems that way...I was initially going off what he said yesterday...but it is true, as I posted here before and in the main section, the 12/19/95 event and how a piece of the elongated vortex across southern Canada merged with the shortwave over the TN Valley is a good example of what needs to happen here, we more or less are going to need a spoke of energy to rotate around that vortex in southern Canada right around the time the disturbance swings across the 90W region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 HPC continues the threat, in moderation: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 859 AM EST TUE DEC 14 2010 VALID 12Z SAT DEC 18 2010 - 12Z TUE DEC 21 2010 IN THE UPDATED PRELIM...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SEA LEVEL GRAPHICS. HOWEVER...FOR THE 500MB GRAPHICS...WE BLENDED IN 50% OF THE NEW ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH HPC PRELIM CONTINUITY. REASON: WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS BLOCKING HIGH WORKING WESTWARD ACROSS NRN CANADA...WE PREFER WEIGHTING THE DEEPER/COLDER PATTERN OF THE ECENS MEAN AT LEAST AS MUCH AS THE GEFS MEAN BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF ALONG THE E COAST GETS RE-INVIGORATED....THE DETERMINISTIC GFS OVERTAKES THE ECMWF/ECENS MEAN SUN AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE VA CAPES. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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