December 18-20 Potential Talking Points

[earthlight]

132 hours out and probably not a bad place to be if you ask me

[tombo82685]

132 hours out and probably not a bad place to be if you ask me

yea, the two on the right, last ones in there columns is what killed that mean, one is in the bahamas

[SnowGoose69]

I don't know what the tendencies are for any particular one of the 12 members but if one is normally out to sea and is currently close or normally is close and is currently out to sea we could get a better feel of whats happening.

[CooL]

With this past storm though the NOGAPS only showed a track over NYC at day 4-5...when I saw that I posted it was very unlikely that we'd see a coastal track because if the NOGAPS was ONLY THAT FAR east it was a bad sign...you'd want to have seen it offshore to have any sort of feel we'd get a track over NYC....same reason in this case if the NOGAPS was over or just SE of the benchmark I'd be feeling very very good.....6 of the 12 GFS ensemble members at 144 hours were either a hit or near it...thats a tad shy of the 8 you really want to see but its not bad.

Ahh ok i see your method now... hoewever, there are about 6-8 hits on the gfs ensembles at 00z...With a couple that are just completely way out there, like tombo said, one is in the Bahamas..Which in the end, probably skewed the entire mean...

[tombo82685]

im really curious to see what the euro ens show honestly.

[earthlight]

I don't know what the tendencies are for any particular one of the 12 members but if one is normally out to sea and is currently close or normally is close and is currently out to sea we could get a better feel of whats happening.

Yeah, problem is they tend to jump around alot given the lower resolution.

I think the resounding point before we close out the night is this. We still have plenty (and I mean plenty) of time to go here. The storm system we're tracking is set to impact our area on Sunday, and it's barely two hours into Tuesday. To say that the models have poor data ingestion right now would be an understatement. What we do know is that the pieces to the puzzle are modeled to be there--we just need them to fall into place. And with the modeled -NAO and Greenland ridge, as well as the elongated PV in SE Canada, our chances are increased. Although not at the surface, the GEFS and ECMWF mean trough over the MS River and PV positioning over the Lakes have historical analog matches for big east coast snowstorms.

We have seen plenty of times where guidance has picked up on systems in the day 6-8 range, lost it in the 4-6 day range, only to bring it back. We are still at the very least, four or five days away from this event. To see the signal on the GFS means that I posted above is very encouraging, regardless of how many of them show hits or not. This pattern is a loaded gun. The GFS tried to produce a snowstorm and nearly did for our area, even with confluence over New York State. The Euro was a whiff out to sea, but in a totally different setup synoptically as it came within a frame or so of dropping in the Polar Vortex completely and phasing, and tugging the surface low to the coast.

I like where we stand, hopefully we can take a few steps forward tomorrow, and no more steps back.

[bmc10]

Lot's of time, things will come back west with tomorrow nights run or Wednesday. That is my belief. The pattern in my opinion is supportive, think once all the players on the field come into the picture models will get a better handle within 96 hours. Models will always vary with time, not to be alarmed.

[CooL]

Nice post Earthlight... Do you follow the srefs at all? im out to hr 60 and 500mb looks interesting -----> http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/03/images/sref_50h_060s.gif

[bmc10]

Yeah, problem is they tend to jump around alot given the lower resolution.

I think the resounding point before we close out the night is this. We still have plenty (and I mean plenty) of time to go here. The storm system we're tracking is set to impact our area on Sunday, and it's barely two hours into Tuesday. To say that the models have poor data ingestion right now would be an understatement. What we do know is that the pieces to the puzzle are modeled to be there--we just need them to fall into place. And with the modeled -NAO and Greenland ridge, as well as the elongated PV in SE Canada, our chances are increased. Although not at the surface, the GEFS and ECMWF mean trough over the MS River and PV positioning over the Lakes have historical analog matches for big east coast snowstorms.

We have seen plenty of times where guidance has picked up on systems in the day 6-8 range, lost it in the 4-6 day range, only to bring it back. We are still at the very least, four or five days away from this event. To see the signal on the GFS means that I posted above is very encouraging, regardless of how many of them show hits or not. This pattern is a loaded gun. The GFS tried to produce a snowstorm and nearly did for our area, even with confluence over New York State. The Euro was a whiff out to sea, but in a totally different setup synoptically as it came within a frame or so of dropping in the Polar Vortex completely and phasing, and tugging the surface low to the coast.

I like where we stand, hopefully we can take a few steps forward tomorrow, and no more steps back.

Ooo yea is that so? LOL one correction, we are still 5-6 days out. Could not agree more John, it is important to remain realistic, your not predicting a snowstorm but just illustrating the potential. Lot's of time to go, plenty of time for details to get ironed out.

[earthlight]

Ooo yea is that so? LOL one correction, we are still 5-6 days out.

Good chat earlier. By the way, I think there's definitely some argument that it's a little sooner than 5-6 days, deepening on how you view it and when the pieces are in place, but the point remains the same.

[earthlight]

Nice post Earthlight... Do you follow the srefs at all? im out to hr 60 and 500mb looks interesting -----> http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/03/images/sref_50h_060s.gif

Yes I do--and they seem a bit flat to me aloft at 87 hours. I have learned to use them more as a short term tool, recently though. They can still be used to depict longer range trends, but 87 hours is really stretching the ensembles intended capabilities.

One thing's for sure--81 hours on the 03z SREF is certainly way more favorable than 87 hours on the 21z SREF, take that for what it's worth.

[SnowGoose69]

Again the UKMET is producing ear drum breaking pressures on a NorEaster...good to see that has not changed.

[A-L-E-X]

Again the UKMET is producing ear drum breaking pressures on a NorEaster...good to see that has not changed.

Yes.  BTW its still snowing here.  Did you see the radar?  looks like another nice stripe of snow right over JFK has developed-- right when it looked like backedge was gone.

[earthlight]

Again the UKMET is producing ear drum breaking pressures on a NorEaster...good to see that has not changed.

I hate to say it but it certainly looks out to lunch to me, I can't find any other guidance resembling it's h5 solution. Maybe it will lead the way, who knows, but I certainly wouldn't label that occurrence as likely.

[bmc10]

Good chat earlier. By the way, I think there's definitely some argument that it's a little sooner than 5-6 days, deepening on how you view it and when the pieces are in place, but the point remains the same.

It is always a good chat kid! It is snowing here, I cannot complain...15 degrees, windy, snowy, looks awesome! Hope something more substantial at somepoint.

[A-L-E-X]

I hate to say it but it certainly looks out to lunch to me, I can't find any other guidance resembling it's h5 solution. Maybe it will lead the way, who knows, but I certainly wouldn't label that occurrence as likely.

Sounds like youre losing hope-- in spite of the fact that we are really close to getting a good storm.

[tombo82685]

im bored and im waiting for the euro ens but i found this interesting. Look at the the gfs indiv runs at h5/anoml hgts its amazing that the block tries to die then it just refires again in the longer range.

[earthlight]

Sounds like youre losing hope-- in spite of the fact that we are really close to getting a good storm.

Not losing hope at all. Just saying that a 966mb low in the LI sound is not exactly a likely solution.

[SnowGoose69]

Whenever the block retrogrades out into central Canada as it did once last winter the model loses it, but often another reforms over Greenland almost immediately after.

[Ericjcrash]

Yes. BTW its still snowing here. Did you see the radar? looks like another nice stripe of snow right over JFK has developed-- right when it looked like backedge was gone.

Yeah, here as well. It looks to be building again. What a cute little surprise tonight. LOL

[tombo82685]

euro ens at 120

[atownwxwatcher]

UK

[tombo82685]

and hr 144

[tombo82685]

euro ens mean looks a little further se than 12z mean

[Ericjcrash]

and hr 144

Quick glance, looks like the OP

[tombo82685]

again, its hr 84 nam but thought i would do a comparison with the gfs at 0z

[iverson3]

How do you feel the 84 hr Nam looks at this point Tombo? I see precip breaking out on Friday evening with 7h looking juicy for nc up north through pa, is that associated with our Sunday system?

[SnowGoose69]

The NAM handled the end result of that PV better than the GFS did on a few occasions last winter...if its doing so here again that disturbance obviously may wind up more north.

[CooL]

what do you think tombo? i think the nam hints at an earlier phase with that PV and the s/w looks more amp'd on 500mb..They dont look that alike imo but i could be wrong

[tombo82685]

How do you feel the 84 hr Nam looks at this point Tombo? I see precip breaking out on Friday evening with 7h looking juicy for nc up north through pa, is that associated with our Sunday system?

granted its the 84 hr nam, but i think it looks really good. I think what your seeing at 84hrs on the nam is the thing dt was talking about on the ggem and what the euro has. Its basically a front sitting there causing instability with some waves riding a long it.