December 18-20 Potential Talking Points

[earthlight]

Recovers by hour 120, a few hours too late.

[tombo82685]

hr 120 is sub 1000 low 350 east of norfolk, no precip really gets abv va/nc line

[ravensrule]

from phl to toms river line south gets .1-.25 from overunning from first event

Tombo can you please tell me the qpf for Baltimore, thank you in advance.

[earthlight]

Hour 126 has the pieces coming together literally hours too late---it's going to hook far west enough to graze the Cape, and that's tremendous considering how flat it was aloft at 90 hrs.

[Atlas]

Dont jump off the cliff folks, its a way out there, and La Nina storms always trend NW

[tombo82685]

hr 126 sub 992 200 or so miles ese of bm

[jrodd321]

Good thing to hear it recovered and didn't completely lose the storm. Still think we have ways to go on this one guys.

[tombo82685]

cape cod gets brushed by some precip at hr 132

[bass28]

euro being bullish to itself?seems like it doesnt know what it wants to do at the moment?

[Allsnow]

Tombo can you please tell me the qpf for Baltimore, thank you in advance.

.10-.25

[ravensrule]

.10-.25

Thank you very much .

[Atlas]

This 500 setup is not as bad as the peoples post think, its right where we want it.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb-comp.cgi?re=namer&mo=ecmwf&va=c500&ft=h120&cu=latest≥=800x630&ti=UTC&id=&zoom=.6

[WeatherGQ]

I'm not really good at reading models but wouldnt we rather have that vortex a little more north east to keep the storm from going off of the NC coast???

[earthlight]

The euro was much closer to a full PV phase than any run of the GFS or any other model we have seen besides tonights 00z Ukie, that's for sure. The GFS brings the storm north for a different reason--while the Euro misses by literally hours from bringing the storm due north up the coast.

[tombo82685]

I'm not really good at reading models but wouldnt we rather have that vortex a little more north east to keep the storm from going off of the NC coast???

the reason why it goes off the nc coast is because the vortex doesnt phase till later in the run, also its not as amplified the s/w so you just get a wave moving off the se coast that blows up once ots

[tombo82685]

hr 162 the area gets some lgt snow....

[atownwxwatcher]

From DT

looking at the 0z euro run the trough has phase at 120 hrs and the flow is NOT wsw-ene but sw to NE

in other words the flow seems like it should bring the low up the coast much closer

Main forum

[Dsnowx53]

If the Euro had an initial stronger southern stream shortwave, like all the other models seemed to have, it would have probably been a MECS.

[A-L-E-X]

Dont jump off the cliff folks, its a way out there, and La Nina storms always trend NW

According to DT, the model has a bit of an error and the way the pieces are coming together, the precip should be at the coast and going SW TO NE NOT WSW TO ENE 

[Zir0b]

I think the important thing to take from today's runs is that all options are on the table. We have a possibility of a coastal plain runner if you believe the UKMET to a near hit if you believe other models. Since this is a delicate situation with the the timing of the shortwaves, I'd expect a lot of waffling until we get within 72 hours. But even then I would expect a wide range of solutions. Recall last year's 12/19 storm and how the models didn't accurately forecast the splitting of the PV until we got within 72 hours. Going to be a fun week for sure.

Everything still stands...no one should be getting depressed nor excited at this stage.

[A-L-E-X]

If the Euro had an initial stronger southern stream shortwave, like all the other models seemed to have, it would have probably been a MECS.

Its close enough to be within the margin of error-- I dont see any reason to be less hopeful.

[thunderman]

Couple people have said it already, but orientation of the height gradient vector like it is would likely pull this thing a little closer to the coast. Wish I had an intermediate 114 hour chart to look at though.

[earthlight]

00z CMC was kind of ignored for it's suppressed solution, but it's actually pretty favorable at 132 hrs and earlier, especially if you look at the H7 RH fields. Another model that's hours away from a big hit up most of the coast. Goodnight all.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/f132.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/f138.gif

[Ridingtime]

00z CMC was kind of ignored for it's suppressed solution, but it's actually pretty favorable at 132 hrs and earlier, especially if you look at the H7 RH fields. Another model that's hours away from a big hit up most of the coast. Goodnight all.

http://www.meteo.psu...MC_0zA/f132.gif

When do the Euro ensembles come out? Any news on them?

[tombo82685]

here are the 0z gfs ens indiv members 7 or the 11 have a hit or good brush

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf138.html

[earthlight]

here are the 0z gfs ens indiv members 7 or the 11 have a hit or good brush

And more importantly I can immediately spot the three members that are hundreds of miles out to lunch and are throwing off the mean track.

[SnowGoose69]

I only see the 12Z NOGAPS so far, I always like looking at the NOGAPS purely for its basic track, since it has a huge progressive bias it would be a red flag if it has a track near or just outside 40/70......the 12Z was alittle too far SE for my liking.

[earthlight]

I only see the 12Z NOGAPS so far, I always like looking at the NOGAPS purely for its basic track, since it has a huge progressive bias it would be a red flag if it has a track near or just outside 40/70......the 12Z was alittle too far SE for my liking.

It's out on eWall, surface low might impact Western Europe

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html

[CooL]

I only see the 12Z NOGAPS so far, I always like looking at the NOGAPS purely for its basic track, since it has a huge progressive bias it would be a red flag if it has a track near or just outside 40/70......the 12Z was alittle too far SE for my liking.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html

00z was way ots/late phase...But wow, nogaps is a god awful model, it proved that statement with the last storm..

[SnowGoose69]

http://www.meteo.psu...nogapsloop.html

00z was way ots/late phase...But wow, nogaps is a god awful model, it proved that statement with the last storm..

With this past storm though the NOGAPS only showed a track over NYC at day 4-5...when I saw that I posted it was very unlikely that we'd see a coastal track because if the NOGAPS was ONLY THAT FAR east it was a bad sign...you'd want to have seen it offshore to have any sort of feel we'd get a track over NYC....same reason in this case if the NOGAPS was over or just SE of the benchmark I'd be feeling very very good.....6 of the 12 GFS ensemble members at 144 hours were either a hit or near it...thats a tad shy of the 8 you really want to see but its not bad.