winterwx21 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Im not saying dont look at them....but also look at whats going right. I dont understand what nyc snowfall avg has to do with getting this storm......We have ingredients on the tabel for this......people who think it will show a hit each and every run 6 days out are foolish. Hearing 15% to 85% not happening gets a little repatitive......i understand the cause for concern,,,,,but models showing a close miss, is right where i want to be 6 days out I'm not seeing enough in the pattern to make me think this will turn up the coast. Not enough of a ridge out west to help amplify things in the east, and the flow is a little too zonal. Blocking a little too strong. There are some positives as well, but to me the negatives outweigh the positives right now and a storm is unlikely. But that doesn't mean no chance, obviously. At least there is some potential and something to watch. As far as NYC snowfall average, I'm just making the point that you have to look for things that can go wrong since it's tough to get many snowstorms in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm not seeing enough in the pattern to make me think this will turn up the coast. Not enough of a ridge out west to help amplify things in the east, and the flow is a little too zonal. Blocking a little too strong. There are some positives as well, but to me the negatives outweigh the positives right now and a storm is unlikely. But that doesn't mean no chance, obviously. At least there is some potential and something to watch. As far as NYC snowfall average, I'm just making the point that you have to look for things that can go wrong since it's tough to get many snowstorms in this area. We usally get one snowstorm a year, so i feel ur makin it out to be harder then it is.....There is a storm threat on each model...and we are 6 days out......thats enough to keep me locked and i feel we will get this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm not seeing enough in the pattern to make me think this will turn up the coast. Not enough of a ridge out west to help amplify things in the east, and the flow is a little too zonal. Blocking a little too strong. There are some positives as well, but to me the negatives outweigh the positives right now and a storm is unlikely. But that doesn't mean no chance, obviously. At least there is some potential and something to watch. As far as NYC snowfall average, I'm just making the point that you have to look for things that can go wrong since it's tough to get many snowstorms in this area. Snowfall averages dont really say anything about our snowfall patterns, because the variance is so high. I mean-- look at it this way. I definitely like our snowfall pattern much better than Minneapolis. This weekend was their biggest snowstorm since 1991. And it wasnt even 20"! We've had at least half a dozen snowstorms which dumped more snow than anything theyve had in that time period. While our average might be lower, when we get a snowstorm-- it tends to be really big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We usally get one snowstorm a year, so i feel ur makin it out to be harder then it is.....There is a storm threat on each model...and we are 6 days out......thats enough to keep me locked and i feel we will get this storm I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We usally get one snowstorm a year, so i feel ur makin it out to be harder then it is.....There is a storm threat on each model...and we are 6 days out......thats enough to keep me locked and i feel we will get this storm I think people need to not get so worried when they see a weak sfc low... yes last year was bombs, cutoffs, STJ ripe, but that was once in a century type.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We usally get one snowstorm a year, so i feel ur makin it out to be harder then it is.....There is a storm threat on each model...and we are 6 days out......thats enough to keep me locked and i feel we will get this storm We get more than one snowstorm a year. Dont let him sour your mood, dude We usually get 5-8 storms every year that dump one or more inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I think people need to not get so worried when they see a weak sfc low... yes last year was bombs, cutoffs, STJ ripe, but that was once in a century type.. I dont understand why its a crime to be optimistic. If it doesnt work out-- so what? Nothing wrong in feeling good about things right now. And meanwhile enjoy the nice snowfall happening right now. The more you worry, the sooner youll die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Definitely not the best trends, but I wasn't expecting a big tug westward. The 00z/14 GFS has a very favorable look aloft with the shortwave over the Southeast US from 90 hours onward. If we can maintain that type of idea, I think we are in a good position. The shortwave continues to trend deeper and more amplified (that's the only real trend we've seen, the rest has been just jumping around) and that is a good thing. The fact that the storm system got as far north as it did, with the big confluent shortwave over New England, is a very good sign to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Hey tombo, are you doing the EURO tonight, and in this thread perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Hey tombo, are you doing the EURO tonight, and in this thread perhaps? yup im doing it here, just waiting for it to get in time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 yup im doing it here, just waiting for it to get in time frame Cool. I'm staying up just to read it. I don't have to get up until 8 for work, so it's not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I dont understand why its a crime to be optimistic. If it doesnt work out-- so what? Nothing wrong in feeling good about things right now. And meanwhile enjoy the nice snowfall happening right now. The more you worry, the sooner youll die. I agree with this 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 so far through hr 54 the vortex looks more elongated than 12z across the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Compared the the 00z GFS, the Euro is way less amplified and more progressive with the shortwave in the Southern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Compared the the 00z GFS, the Euro is way less amplified and more progressive with the shortwave in the Southern US. what implications you think this will have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Compared the the 00z GFS, the Euro is way less amplified and more progressive with the shortwave in the Southern US. It's not going to look good, if we are going to see any good trends it better start happening tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 UKMET: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=120&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 euro has the first event further north, gets .1 into dc...precip just abv m/d line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 hr 84 now has precip all the way to i80 in pa to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 UKMET: http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 Dear God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I think we can wait another 48 hours before canceling or calling this storm a lock. It's not going to look good, if we are going to see any good trends it better start happening tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Ukie is just loving the storm haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Snowfall averages dont really say anything about our snowfall patterns, because the variance is so high. I mean-- look at it this way. I definitely like our snowfall pattern much better than Minneapolis. This weekend was their biggest snowstorm since 1991. And it wasnt even 20"! We've had at least half a dozen snowstorms which dumped more snow than anything theyve had in that time period. While our average might be lower, when we get a snowstorm-- it tends to be really big. chicago too. chicago has had 10 snowstorms of 14" or more since 1886. imby, there's been 6 snowstorms of 14" or more since 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 UKMET: http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 UKMET is a massive bomb, looks like it gets pulled inland, hence a snow to rain event for the New England Coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 what implications you think this will have? Probably going to be further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yeah, this is the ugliest run in a few days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 hr 108 has broad area of 1008mb pressure, no real organized pressure at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 from phl to toms river line south gets .1-.25 from overunning from first event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 00Z KMA Hour 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yeah, this is the ugliest run in a few days here. All the models are so bipolar-- its hard to believe in anything right now. We go from rain to out to sea and back again lol. I dont think we can give up hope but we shouldnt get our hopes too high either-- anything is possible right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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