earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 The D4 "threat" is a horrendous setup...it might clip SNE with 33F wet snow...but overall that pattern sucks. Maybe someone gets lucky in the interior with 0.5" of qpf and snow which might mean 3-5" of paste. But overall its looks awful....mostly interior sne threat...maybe interior SE NY and NNJ if it trends west...but you'd want to be at >700 feet probably. It's horrendous on the scale of what we're used to I guess...but at this point I'm searching for stray flakes in this pattern. Especially with the next two weeks forecast to be so boring on most models...I'll probably be watching just to see if we can get a miracle few hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 0z GEFS shows the weekend storm offshore. The GGEM also has a low offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 0z GEFS shows the weekend storm offshore. The GGEM also has a low offshore. The GFS also had a couple mid-long range threats for a change. These are the types of lows that can show up late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The 6z nam still shows development just offshore. The other models don't really show anything. We should wait until our current storm is out of here before we care about this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The 6z nam still shows development just offshore. The other models don't really show anything. We should wait until our current storm is out of here before we care about this one . that "storm" has less than zero percent with a fast deamplified flow and a kicker behind it insuring that it doesn't amplify. Its going to be till the first week of January before anything frozen other than some frost happens around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 that "storm" has less than zero percent with a fast deamplified flow and a kicker behind it insuring that it doesn't amplify. Its going to be till the first week of January before anything frozen other than some frost happens around here. And by late december we will be pushing that early january date to late january...etc etc etc...happy spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 And by late december we will be pushing that early january date to late january...etc etc etc...happy spring! nah, I don't think so . I think the worm turns first week of January. But this month, forget about it, go enjoy the nice weather. Mt. Earthlight will be brown and green for xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 that "storm" has less than zero percent with a fast deamplified flow and a kicker behind it insuring that it doesn't amplify. Its going to be till the first week of January before anything frozen other than some frost happens around here. By looking at the long range, there is nothing encouraging at all. We need the NAO and the AO to go negative as soon as possible. I'm still not giving up for the weekend. I am going to wait until our current storm gets out of here to see what the models do with the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 By looking at the long range, there is nothing encouraging at all. We need the NAO and the AO to go negative as soon as possible. I'm still not giving up for the weekend. I am going to wait until our current storm gets out of here to see what the models do with the weekend storm. Why do you do this to urself? Its over anthony, you will get no more snow this month then you did in october......december was over 2 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 On the flip side, travel plans will be easy for this x-mas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 And by late december we will be pushing that early january date to late january...etc etc etc...happy spring! YYup, first it was mid Nov, then late Nov...always gets pushed back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Mt. Earthlight will be brown and green for xmas. Very likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Very likely Santa will still come to your house though, he needs some spa time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Santa will still come to your house though, he needs some spa time. What are the chances metfan still believes in santa? Oops, my bad dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Probably a better chance we see santa flying through the sky than snow What are the chances metfan still believes in santa? Oops, my bad dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 ouch might as well take a nine iron to the head, it will hurt less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yanksfans home location of Ramsey, NJ actually looks decent for snow from hours 18-21. At hour 18, 850's are -.4 and surface is 36. AFTER hour 18, another .25" falls. So, according to NAM, Ramsey is in line for 1" or so of snow. http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KCDW.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Guess all that remains to be seen is how long NYC can hold out before we have our first freeze. If it doesn't happen this weekend it might be a while. A lot of groundcover in the parks and street plants are still pretty green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 What are the chances metfan still believes in santa? Oops, my bad dude! Of course santa is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yanksfans home location of Ramsey, NJ actually looks decent for snow from hours 18-21. At hour 18, 850's are -.4 and surface is 36. AFTER hour 18, another .25" falls. So, according to NAM, Ramsey is in line for 1" or so of snow. http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KCDW.txt Wowwwww Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 might as well take a nine iron to the head, it will hurt less. i know. seriously... at least now, the pattern has some amlplification to it, but then it gets really ugly.. split flow... cutoff in the southwest.. and the system the GFS is showing really late in the period is highly dependent on a Pacific disturbance briefly reamping the pattern a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Is the AO and NAO ever going to turn negative? The NAO has been positive close to 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Is the AO and NAO ever going to turn negative? The NAO has been positive close to 3 months. Looking at the GFS acoss the entire northern hemisphere, it doesn't offer a whole lot of hope... If anything, it was hinting towards even lower heights over Greenland towards the end of the period. At best, at one point, it maybe had some slight signs of transient east based block, but not much... What I also find interesting (and depressing) is the height anomolies late in the period. For the most part, you can almost draw a perfect circle around the NH denoting the line between positive and negative anomolies... What that says to me is that there basically can be no blocking, as you have no juxtaposing anomolies happening in a north south, fashion... It means little amplification, which means weak systems, at best.. and yea, while it might be normal to below normal temperature-wise, we won't get anythng but progressive weak storm systems. Of course, realizing here that this is GFS fantasy range and that if something significant happens somewhere else, it could have major implications on a pattern change... but this is the a snapshot of how it looks right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well, a bit of good news from Steve DiMartino. Not sure how "high" you guys are on him, but here's a post from his twitter: Steve DiMartino: For those worrying about the weather pattern, the QBO at 30 MB and 50 MB are now tanking, which points that the pattern IS changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm going to live winter vicariously through the Arctic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well, a bit of good news from Steve DiMartino. Not sure how "high" you guys are on him, but here's a post from his twitter: Steve DiMartino: Just to follow up on this briefly. With a tanking QBO at 30mb, along w/ the Westerly anomaly weakening at 45-50mb, this would suggest a 2-4 month delay in when blocking would settle in. Some meteorologists thus propose that a prominant blocking mid-late winter this year may settle in and act similarly to the 93/94 type winter. (although that was a weak El Nino) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well, a bit of good news from Steve DiMartino. Not sure how "high" you guys are on him, but here's a post from his twitter: Steve DiMartino: He's a con-artist, and I guarantee this is not an original thought of his becase I was texted the same exact info this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 He's a con-artist, and I guarantee this is not an original thought of his becase I was texted the same exact info this morning. I agree with you but credit to Steve on this one I follow his page and he's been talking about this since November 15th I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 He's a con-artist, and I guarantee this is not an original thought of his becase I was texted the same exact info this morning. Whether or not the man himself is a con-artist is immaterial to me in the grander scheme (although if true, thanks and I will stop following him). I did research on the falling QBO, along with the weakening Westerly towards more of an Easterly QBO. Data suggests that, after a 2-4 month delay, blocking may settle in and provide a bang for the mid-late winter for those of us worrying about the awful pattern we are currently stuck in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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