nycsnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z GEFS still has a miller B look to it but it never develops. How's the gefs look for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 GEFS have trended much more amplified with the storm system around 102 hours. Not there yet, but could be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GEFS have trended much more amplified with the storm system around 102 hours. Not there yet, but could be very close. It's really close. The Euro ensembles don't show anything. The lastest GGEM has the low forming too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GEFS have trended much more amplified with the storm system around 102 hours. Not there yet, but could be very close. this is a progessive pattern with basically no opportunity for amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 this is a progessive pattern with basically no opportunity for amplification. There is room only because of the ridge out west around 60-72 hours. This feature deamplifies eventually but the shortwave is also related to the Polar Vortex. This feature has been trending more amplified for four model cycles now. It swings southeast and on the OP GFS does absolutely nothing. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f60.gif There is a window of opportunity that the GEFS at 06z were picking up on. With the new 12z GEFS more amplified, you'd think another member or two has the storm now as well. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_6z/f108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 There is room only because of the ridge out west around 60-72 hours. This feature deamplifies eventually but the shortwave is also related to the Polar Vortex. This feature has been trending more amplified for four model cycles now. It swings southeast and on the OP GFS does absolutely nothing. http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_12z/f60.gif There is a window of opportunity that the GEFS at 06z were picking up on. With the new 12z GEFS more amplified, you'd think another member or two has the storm now as well. http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_6z/f108.gif problem is as soon as the ridge goes up, it gets beat back down. Need that ridge to stay amplified, and right now, not seeing it. Also, look behind that wave, ugly for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Also, look behind that wave, ugly for a while. Yes...all the more reason to hope it produces something even if it's a stray snow squall with the passage of the upper air trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Definitely plenty of amplification here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Definitely plenty of amplification here careful what you wish for, the amplified members are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 careful what you wish for, the amplified members are You still thinking we get above avg snow this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 careful what you wish for, the amplified members are Use weenie math Some members showing rain + some members showing OTS= snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GGEM for the weekend potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 You still thinking we get above avg snow this year? Yes, but not because of anything we see in December, I mean, we are already above average by a ton, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Use weenie math Some members showing rain + some members showing OTS= snow yes, that is how atwon, abc, and metfan do their calculations. Not the people you want to cheat off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z GEFS is colder than the op run in the long range fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 yes, that is how atwon, abc, and metfan do their calculations. Not the people you want to cheat off of. I never said I believe in that, just pointing out some peoples logic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z Nogaps shows some amplifcation with the weekend potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This pattern sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z Euro doesn't show anything for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z Euro doesn't show anything for Saturday. Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 yes, that is how atwon, abc, and metfan do their calculations. Not the people you want to cheat off of. First of all it is spelled Atown... Second of all.. I believe i was the one who was saying that this was going to come further west from the start...and I also said that it was going to be an interior rain changing to snow with light to moderate accumulations possible with the potential for it to change to snow in the back end of the system in the bigger cities..And pretty much that seems to be the case.... Or are you continuing to look at something else? So before you go talking about a person i suggest you know what the person has been saying since day one about this system which is now the same thing CONSISTENTLY said for the last 7-10 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z Euro doesn't show anything for Saturday. Don't get your hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Heads up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 GFS pops a low but it's way offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Heads up I wouldn't be surprised if the other models begin to pick up on it tonight or tomorrow...GFS tries to form something but way offshore...something to watch...but playing the odds...Saturday morning has a considerably better shot at being white than Thursday out east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 JB and Upton also mentioned about this potential coastal storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised if the other models begin to pick up on it tonight or tomorrow...GFS tries to form something but way offshore...something to watch...but playing the odds...Saturday morning has a considerably better shot at being white than Thursday out east... We need one of the models to discover a shortwave in the fast flow over the Northwest Territories around 24hrs out, send it south through Saskatchewan at 48hrs, through the Dakotas at 60hr and into southern Missouri by day 3. Even a modest s/w should amplify the flow significantly in the temperature gradient that will exist across the South and Southeast. Then amplify it like crazy, just like with Thursday's wave... but not so much that it sends the 564dm line up into Maine. Because that's getting kind of old. Then longwave pattern would support it, and I've been squinting my eyes to find any sign of a squiggle up in NW Canada on the 500mb charts. But I just can't see one. I suspect it's a very data sparse region. Shortwaves can sometimes materialize out of thin air up there. The sparse data weenieism is one that I can still trick myself into believing sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 For the Day 4 threat I think we need to see the 300mb jet penetrate further south into the central US. Otherwise we will likely end up with a Great Lakes primary low and/or a late developing coastal into the Canadian Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 For the Day 4 threat I think we need to see the 300mb jet penetrate further south into the central US. Otherwise we will likely end up with a Great Lakes primary low and/or a late developing coastal into the Canadian Maritimes. As it is right now (modeled on the OP run) it is pretty crappy...with the NAM being better than the GFS. That being said, some of the GFS Ensembles still are developing significant low pressure systems (a few of them earlier today wrapped them up big time over the Northeast US)...so I wouldn't say the threat is anywhere near dead yet. In such a bad pattern..it's something to watch. These things can often go under the radar for a while up till the last minute. It's def. a very long shot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 As it is right now (modeled on the OP run) it is pretty crappy...with the NAM being better than the GFS. That being said, some of the GFS Ensembles still are developing significant low pressure systems (a few of them earlier today wrapped them up big time over the Northeast US)...so I wouldn't say the threat is anywhere near dead yet. In such a bad pattern..it's something to watch. These things can often go under the radar for a while up till the last minute. It's def. a very long shot though. The D4 "threat" is a horrendous setup...it might clip SNE with 33F wet snow...but overall that pattern sucks. Maybe someone gets lucky in the interior with 0.5" of qpf and snow which might mean 3-5" of paste. But overall its looks awful....mostly interior sne threat...maybe interior SE NY and NNJ if it trends west...but you'd want to be at >700 feet probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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