MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Why is everyone knocking Atown? I don't get it at all . He is not in denial . He has called for a storm around this time for a while and he is sticking to his guns. In the past, his storm calls have verified. Like I said before, we can get snow in this pattern. Mt Holly also agrees with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I think we all agree that the pattern is terrible and the models are very borderline. This could go either way. Yup, you got me. I'm definitely in denial. These models are clearly showing snow for our area. The pattern is great, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Sun angle is absolutely meaningless at this latitude in December.... I said frozen, because the low temperatures at night can be close to freezing at the surface so there could be freezing rain or sleet. The NWS came out with their own statement a little after my post.. NOAA just issued a HWO for a period of snow/sleet for C NJ, N NJ and E PA. Interesting... NJZ008>010-015-PAZ067>069-052045- MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- 341 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I think his analysis has been very good. Very in-depth. Anything is possible. It is clearly a terrible pattern and it would take a miracle to get a snowstorm out of this for us, but it is not impossible. Why is everyone knocking Atown? I don't get it at all . He is not in denial . He has called for a storm around this time for a while and he is sticking to his guns. In the past, his storm calls have verified. Like I said before, we can get snow in this pattern. Mt Holly also agrees with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Just saw the GFS ensemble mean. There must be a bunch of runs well NW of the operational as the precipitation shield goes all the way back to Lakes Erie and Ontario. It is still pretty cold though with 850's below 0. Definitely a big shift West from the previous run and a red flag that the operational may be too far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 GEFS are all over the place, around 4 of them give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The ensembles have just about any possible solution on the table. It all depends upon how much interaction there is with the northern stream. Some go well northwest and look like the NAM and some go southeast and out to sea and the rest are somewhere in between the two. That is how the operational ended up the way it did I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html#picture link to the gfs ensembles fwiw. Looks like its a classic timing issue with some member ots, and some showing an OH valley runner, lol. Can't wait for my cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Why is everyone knocking Atown? I don't get it at all . He is not in denial . He has called for a storm around this time for a while and he is sticking to his guns. In the past, his storm calls have verified. Like I said before, we can get snow in this pattern. Mt Holly also agrees with that. Reading all opinions, and there is something to be said about his style of forecasting. His track record is good enough to respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 He lives on the high, windy, snow covered peaks of Middletown, NY I feel like the SkiMRG of the NYC subfoum.. lol It amazes me sometimes that im in Uptons CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 I feel like the SkiMRG of the NYC subfoum.. lol It amazes me sometimes that im in Uptons CWA Haha so true. Such a drastically different climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Haha so true. Such a drastically different climate. I am within a 10 min drive from 4 different CWAs ( including my own).. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 you know its bad when some of the gefs are over buffalo, lol. Terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Did anyone post this yet? Some of the 18z GEFS members are now showing another storm for Saturday/Sunday when the other models have nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The storm affecting the region solution just gained another supporter - FWIW, the 21z SREF are showing a further NW storm, and appear to be taking the storm inland close to what the 18z NAM did: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Anyone below of 500+ feet and away from the coast shouldnt expect to see much out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 There is no threat behind this, not sure what Alphy is seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Storm thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looking into the medium range again, the GEFS are signaling an event with trough amplification and surface low development around 12z Saturday. The CMC has picked up on it as well. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/f126.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looking into the medium range again, the GEFS are signaling an event with trough amplification and surface low development around 12z Saturday. The CMC has picked up on it as well. http://www.meteo.psu...MC_12z/f126.gif Nice ridge position over the Northern Rockies. Wish it was more amplified though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nice ridge position over the Northern Rockies. Wish it was more amplified though. Just a few frames earlier, it looks good. But it rapidly de-amplifies thereafter. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/f108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Some interesting developments on the models to keep an eye on in the medium range regarding that siberian blocking feature. This feature has been forecasted well in advance and is helping at least assure that the coldest air is on our side of the pole. Despite the raging +AO of late, notice on the 12z runs how it is creeping into the north pole regions or even northern Greenland on the op euro/gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 0z GEFS still has a signal for a low pressure off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i cant believe it, still no sign of blocking on the 00z gfs thru 384hrs.. cmon at this point im hoping there is a train of lakes cutters, perhaps a biblical one, so that we can setup some blocking for xmas and into january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 So i guess we are back to pattern change discussion...any sign at all of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i cant believe it, still no sign of blocking on the 00z gfs thru 384hrs.. cmon at this point im hoping there is a train of lakes cutters, perhaps a biblical one, so that we can setup some blocking for xmas and into january The stratosphere needs to warm over the Arctic, so that we can get a shot at blocking up there. Right now it's very cold and we won't likely have a meaningful -NAO episode until that changes. Until then, expect the train of too warm/inland storms to continue unfortunately. We even saw last winter how fast everything went to crap after the 2/1 storm and the blocking regime ended permanently for the winter. That's when our winter ended too. Moderate or stronger Ninas are just not favorable for us without major intervention and help from the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wow, the long range on the GFS is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z GEFS still has a miller B look to it but it never develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Long range looks that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 gfs has a hard time short range.....long range is never right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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