earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Because you lack understanding of how to use the NOGAPS! The fact of the matter is that we have been being told by some of the pro mets that this is a horrible pattern etc etc and we would have to wait till mid January for a pattern change etc etc and now we are talking about the potential for some snow and sleet and this is something that I have been talking about now for the last 7 days.... Lol, I understand how to use the Nogaps. I have been using it (more like watching it) for years. The only thing it's useful for is to maybe raise a little flag if it's more amplified than any other model. It's incredibly inconsistent and unreliable otherwise. And it's only you and a select bunch of other people who think we are talking about the potential for snow from this storm. I don't know how you think anybody outside of the higher elevations is getting snow from this set up, but I guess you can go on believing that until the event happens if you so choose. The pattern is bad...and you can tell yourself otherwise if you'd like. But it's probably more productive to be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Interesting. It is amazing how much I don't remember it like that. The human mind is an interesting thing. I guess I am just old and tired. Lack of sleep mostly. Well theres a difference between catching on to the storm and getting it right. The NAM didn't budge from ~60 hrs out with pretty much any facet of the storm including thermal profiles. It was correct with my surface temperature almost to the exact degree at 60 or so hrs which is very impressive in a dynamic system like that. The GFS was laughably bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The NAM is virtually always overly amped and inland in the longer range, even with storms that every other model often has off the coast, this can occur no matter how good the blocking is in the Atlantic. I generally assume its wrong if it has a marked difference from the other globals at the far end of its range. it is, but i was defending the nam because he trashed it saying it should be gettin rid of because its that bad, probly because it shows an inland runner.. extrapolating an 84 hr nam is wrong, but other than that the nam has been a really good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Lol, I understand how to use the Nogaps. I have been using it (more like watching it) for years. The only thing it's useful for is to maybe raise a little flag if it's more amplified than any other model. It's incredibly inconsistent and unreliable otherwise. And it's only you and a select bunch of other people who think we are talking about the potential for snow from this storm. I don't know how you think anybody outside of the higher elevations is getting snow from this set up, but I guess you can go on believing that until the event happens if you so choose. The pattern is bad...and you can tell yourself otherwise if you'd like. But it's probably more productive to be realistic. See MT Holly HWO I guess i am not alone huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 John, There must have been about a million people who said the same thing about the October storm, including every single on camera meteorologist in NYC, two days before the storm on that Thursday morning. I watched all of them, ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX. They were all very wrong. Some more wrong than others though. Lol, I understand how to use the Nogaps. I have been using it (more like watching it) for years. The only thing it's useful for is to maybe raise a little flag if it's more amplified than any other model. It's incredibly inconsistent and unreliable otherwise. And it's only you and a select bunch of other people who think we are talking about the potential for snow from this storm. I don't know how you think anybody outside of the higher elevations is getting snow from this set up, but I guess you can go on believing that until the event happens if you so choose. The pattern is bad...and you can tell yourself otherwise if you'd like. But it's probably more productive to be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 it is, but i was defending the nam because he trashed it saying it should be gettin rid of because its that bad, probly because it shows an inland runner.. extrapolating an 84 hr nam is wrong, but other than that the nam has been a really good model. Inside 60 hours now its alot more believeable than it was just 3-4 years ago I think, but 60-84 it still misses too often....I should emphasize 48-60 hours, its always been fine inside 48, but there has been notable improvement I think in that 48-60 hour window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 LOL at the wishcasting outside of the Banter thread. John is 100000% right. This is a bad setup and this storm has two options 1) weak ots like the euro or more phased and rain. The weenie GFS option isn't on the table, unless you live in la la land with the dodo birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not disagreeing with you at all. But heard this back in October too. LOL at the wishcasting outside of the Banter thread. John is 100000% right. This is a bad setup and this storm has two options 1) weak ots like the euro or more phased and rain. The weenie GFS option isn't on the table, unless you live in la la land with the dodo birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 John, There must have been about a million people who said the same thing about the October storm, including every single on camera meteorologist in NYC, two days before the storm on that Thursday morning. I watched all of them, ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX. They were all very wrong. Some more wrong than others though. That storm was argued because of the time of year. This storm is argued because of the patten. The October storm had a perfectly timed Davis Straight block. This pattern is terrible and highly unlikely to produce snow anywhere unless you live at a high elevation. Maybe a few flakes here and there if you're lucky. Comparing those two storms is very silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not disagreeing with you at all. But heard this back in October too. from some people, not me. The 500 mb setup was beautiful, I love it the second the euro showed it around 144 hours. This setup doesn't even compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 That storm was argued because of the time of year. This storm is argued because of the patten. The October storm had a perfectly timed Davis Straight block. This pattern is terrible and highly unlikely to produce snow anywhere unless you live at a high elevation. Maybe a few flakes here and there if you're lucky. Comparing those two storms is very silly. AMEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Good point about the Davis Straight Block. By the way, I agree that this storm will most likely be an out to sea solution but the definitive statements that are so often thrown around are a bit much in my opinion. Has a storm never produced significant snow around here from a pattern similar to this? That I doubt. Is it less likely, of course. Is it impossible, I doubt it. That storm was argued because of the time of year. This storm is argued because of the patten. The October storm had a perfectly timed Davis Straight block. This pattern is terrible and highly unlikely to produce snow anywhere unless you live at a high elevation. Maybe a few flakes here and there if you're lucky. Comparing those two storms is very silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 This GFS solution is very similar to the control run of the Euro that I just talked about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18z GFS=snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Pretty consistent ..Not as amplified as 12 Z but then I personally have never been talking about an amplified storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18z GFS=snowstorm! if there was anything, anything at all somewhat reliable that looked like this and the setup wasn't so bad, I would weenie up and jump, but it looks to me like the gfs is only spitting out these solutions because of its biases and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 if there was anything, anything at all somewhat reliable that looked like this and the setup wasn't so bad, I would weenie up and jump, but it looks to me like the gfs is only spitting out these solutions because of its biases and nothing more. Or some people are in denial of what the guidance is showing from the GFS means to the UKMET to the GFS OP to the ECM means..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I love reading the back and forth. One thing I do know is that there are no absolutes in weather. Saying something definitely will or won't happen will lead many to humbling experiences when they are wrong... It will be interesting to see who's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Or some people are in denial of what the guidance is showing from the GFS means to the UKMET to the GFS OP to the ECM means..... ukmet doesnt show precip or temps out that far, so because you see a low off the coast means nothing as to the gfs and anything related to it, im discarding it because of how it fails time and time and time again in these setups. Haven't seen ecmf ensembles, but unless you see the spaghetti plots on those, its very deceiving, as they were for the december storm last year and the october storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18z GFS=snowstorm! Check out the low-level temps first. This doesn't look good to me. The high is also east of Nova Scotia: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 So what the setup is not all that great for a storm. We have seen plenty of storms in a bad pattern. None of us who believe this storm will happen is not in denial. The gfs ensembles have been consistent with a wave along the coast. People are tossing the storm idea because of the pattern. We have a positive PNA and a negative EPO. That should help us out this time. Also, the Euro is not that far away from showing a good storm for the area. I would not write this storm off at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Check out the low-level temps first. This doesn't look good to me. The high is also east of Nova Scotia: thicknesses are fugly to start and somehow the gfs magically, and probably improperly, cools the column down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Check out the low-level temps first. This doesn't look good to me. The high is also east of Nova Scotia: Not that I think the GFS is right at all, but lower level temps on the GFS have tended to run far too warm this far out... It's cold enuf to 925... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not that I think the GFS is right at all, but lower level temps on the GFS have tended to run far too warm this far out... It's cold enuf to 925... not enough in this setup, at least near the coast. Maybe NW jersey, hudson valley does ok hill of SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 They were several degrees too warm with the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 So what the setup is not all that great for a storm. We have seen plenty of storms in a bad pattern. None of us who believe this storm will happen is not in denial. The gfs ensembles have been consistent with a wave along the coast. People are tossing the storm idea because of the pattern. We have a positive PNA and a negative EPO. That should help us out this time. Also, the Euro is not that far away from showing a good storm for the area. I would not write this storm off at all. When the setup is this awful, it's really not worth getting your hopes or analyzing every run so much. Until you get within 24 or 48hrs, Only a small change, will make a difference between how much snow or rain falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Ryan said in the SNE thread that the Euro ensembles were north of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 They were several degrees too warm with the October storm. gfs did awful with the october snowstorm. nam inside 60 hrs nailed the cooler temps and the snow in nyc metro. Either way, this storm doesnt compare as the 500mb setup in october brought in a much cooler airmass from canada. This storm is hanging on a thread for N & W people becuase of the gfs. Its still 90hrs out so pretty much all track options are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 gfs did awful with the october snowstorm. nam inside 60 hrs nailed the cooler temps and the snow in nyc metro. Either way, this storm doesnt compare as the 500mb setup in october brought in a much cooler airmass from canada. This storm is hanging on a thread for N & W people becuase of the gfs. Its still 90hrs out so pretty much all track options are on the table. Exactly.. Writing this storm off this early in the game is foolish.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Or some people are in denial of what the guidance is showing from the GFS means to the UKMET to the GFS OP to the ECM means..... Yup, you got me. I'm definitely in denial. These models are clearly showing snow for our area. The pattern is great, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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