Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 When do the Euro ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 It looks flat and offshore to me. Which is not major difference. I think the GGEM kind of supports the Euro. The low over LI at 72hrs on the GGEM, is really not the same system the GFS and UKMET are develop down the south. The GFS and UKMET models are cutting off more shortwave energy, down the base side of the trough and developing a stronger wave out it: http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Yes it is off the coast of the Northeast and very similar in position to the GFS (not strength) While the past two runs have been taking it basically south and east ... around the Carolina area and not bringing it up the coast. So you can see that it has before brought the system up the coast and just recently has not..However its means have been consistent with showing a similar track as the GFS means but not strength wise. The ECM could be mishandling the energy behind the system which then acts as a kicker to the present system.. Time will tell ..There is a major difference between a system coming up the coast (that 132 hr image) and a system that now goes off around the Carolinas .. Another thing is that at 102 hours today on the 12 Z ECM we are actually more NW then at 114 hrs last night run with now Cape Cod seeing precipitation (albeit light ) versus last nights run there was none at that time frame.. I think its the energy behind on the ECM that is acting like a kicker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 When do the Euro ensembles come out? On Raleigh's site around 3:45 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Ive heard the Navy has improved the NOGAPS recently... I think your European model is struggling big time with this system... You know how you always ask me where the NOGAPS is Well this is because you think it is a horrible model -where as I think it is a great tool ..to flag the other guidance.. Well ... They look almost identical.. In other words if the NOGAPS is horrible then that would equate to the potential that either the NOGAPS is correct here...or the ECM is wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I agree light/moderate events are typical for December. But what does ONLY THAT put us on track for? A typical winter, with mostly snow to rainstorms for NYC/LI. While the inland areas get socked with more snow. Despite how spoiled we've been with winter this past decade, I don't think we well ever be satisfied with just a typical winter in the NYC/LI area. That's why we have this discussion every year. Even up at Scranton, at a thousand feet...a good 60% to 65% of December precip. is in the form of rain in an average year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Well, I am eagerly awaiting the control run of the Euro, the Euro ensembles and the 18z GFS, but it is very difficult to believe that the GFS is somehow doing a better job with this system than the ECMWF. It would be incredible really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The 500mb set up is COMPLETELY different on this run of the NAM at 60 hrs vs. last run at 66 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Well, I am eagerly awaiting the control run of the Euro, the Euro ensembles and the 18z GFS, but it is very difficult to believe that the GFS is somehow doing a better job with this system than the ECMWF. It would be incredible really. Here you be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Why everybody is suddenly obsessed with the control run of the Euro ensembles is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Why everybody is suddenly obsessed with the control run of the Euro ensembles is beyond me. Something has to show a major hit, question answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Why everybody is suddenly obsessed with the control run of the Euro ensembles is beyond me. I am not obsessed with the ECM control run. I am obsessed with the weather and consistency in models. When i see consistency in models it is a signal to me that something may be happening of interest. As the means show above ..they are different from the OP run as the means is further NW then the OP run... This is a point i was trying to hammer home earlier in this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 And the NAM is MUCH stronger with the 500mb low than the ECMWF and produces an inland running rain storm for us. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 And the NAM is MUCH stronger with the 500mb low than the ECMWF and produces an inland running rain storm for us. Amazing. Experience with the NAM has led me to conclude not to use it until under 24 hrs ***IF*** then. It generally shows solutions that have already been displayed. One of those models that I wish they would just get rid of.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The control run of the Euro is NW of the operational run and produces about .35 inches of precip at NYC and it is probably all snow with 850's of -2 to -5 It brings about .6 inches as close as Asbury Park. It has the main precipitation shield covering all of south Jersey up to Asbury Park and to just south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Just another tool to use. Why everybody is suddenly obsessed with the control run of the Euro ensembles is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I think your European model is struggling big time with this system... You know how you always ask me where the NOGAPS is Well this is because you think it is a horrible model -where as I think it is a great tool ..to flag the other guidance.. Well ... They look almost identical.. In other words if the NOGAPS is horrible then that would equate to the potential that either the NOGAPS is correct here...or the ECM is wrong.. In this scenario I'd prefer to see the NOGAPS right around there or slightly further east, given it such a severely progressive model that track may very well be too close to the coast as an indication the GFS rain event is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Experience with the NAM has led me to conclude not to use it until under 24 hrs ***IF*** then. It generally shows solutions that have already been displayed. One of those models that I wish they would just get rid of.. for someone who uses the sacred nogaps shouldnt be aloud to trash other models lol nam is fine, it proved its worth during the october snowstorm. And an inland runner is still on the table and everyone gets a washout. You people are forgetting there is a powerful +NAO and a persistent SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 for someone who uses the sacred nogaps shouldnt be aloud to trash other models lol nam is fine, it proved its worth during the october snowstorm. And an inland runner is still on the table and everyone gets a washout. You people are forgetting there is a powerful +NAO and a persistent SE ridge. The NAM is virtually always overly amped and inland in the longer range, even with storms that every other model often has off the coast, this can occur no matter how good the blocking is in the Atlantic. I generally assume its wrong if it has a marked difference from the other globals at the far end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The NAM had NO CLUE the October storm was even going to happen until it was within 48 hrs. It had no storm at all prior to 48 hrs, then it only slowly started pulling a storm NW to our location with each run. for someone who uses the sacred nogaps shouldnt be aloud to trash other models lol nam is fine, it proved its worth during the october snowstorm. And an inland runner is still on the table and everyone gets a washout. You people are forgetting there is a powerful +NAO and a persistent SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Besides position of systems timing is everything. If one of this weeks lows later week develop for a nighttime event maybe we can see some frozen rather than liquid precipitation, particularly north and west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 NOAA just issued a HWO for a period of snow/sleet for C NJ, N NJ and E PA. Interesting... NJZ008>010-015-PAZ067>069-052045- MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- 341 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 The NAM had NO CLUE the October storm was even going to happen until it was within 48 hrs. It had no storm at all prior to 48 hrs, then it only slowly started pulling a storm NW to our location with each run. This post is completely wrong. The NAM had the storm at 54-66 hours and I have the maps on my computer to prove it. The GFS was laughably bad with that system, even at the end as it had 850 temperatures about 4 degrees too warm. The NGP was also laughably inconsistent as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I am surprised. I don't remember it like that at all. Maybe I am mistaken though. This post is completely wrong. The NAM had the storm at 54-66 hours and I have the maps on my computer to prove it. The GFS was laughably bad with that system, even at the end as it had 850 temperatures about 4 degrees too warm. The NGP was also laughably inconsistent as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Would you mind posting them? I really don't remember it having the storm until 48 hrs out. I am surprised my memory is so faulty. I am surprised. I don't remember it like that at all. Maybe I am mistaken though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Besides position of systems timing is everything. If one of this weeks lows later week develop for a nighttime event maybe we can see some frozen rather than liquid precipitation, particularly north and west of NYC. Sun angle is absolutely meaningless at this latitude in December.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 I am surprised. I don't remember it like that at all. Maybe I am mistaken though. I'm not home at the moment so I don't have access to the maps. But I know it was the 18z run around 54-60 hours prior to the event which had it, judging by the text messages that I still have on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 The NAM has a bad history, but it has schooled the GFS in the last three systems since it was upgraded. Just something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Maybe it was 60 hrs out and not 48 hrs. then. I thought though I remembered the NAM being the last of the models to catch the storm and I believe it was. I remember people saying that they wished that the NAM would at least show a storm and so on. I'm not home at the moment so I don't have access to the maps. But I know it was the 18z run around 54-60 hours prior to the event which had it, judging by the text messages that I still have on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 for someone who uses the sacred nogaps shouldnt be aloud to trash other models lol nam is fine, it proved its worth during the october snowstorm. And an inland runner is still on the table and everyone gets a washout. You people are forgetting there is a powerful +NAO and a persistent SE ridge. Because you lack understanding of how to use the NOGAPS! Let me see if i can get this straight... GFS means have been consistent! ECM means have been flagging the ECM Op with this system.. UKMET has been flagging the OP ECM with this system... I have been talking about this system being the next potential shot of snow across parts of the region for the last seven days. Mt Holly now issues a HWO , even though they are disregarding the GFS... (interesting i may say so).. When you spend (outside of days of a J.O. ...12 noon till 6 AM analyzing all the models and their runs you become quite familiar with what is happening with the guidance... The fact of the matter is that we have been being told by some of the pro mets that this is a horrible pattern etc etc and we would have to wait till mid January for a pattern change etc etc and now we are talking about the potential for some snow and sleet and this is something that I have been talking about now for the last 7 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Maybe it was 60 hrs out and not 48 hrs. then. I thought though I remembered the NAM being the last of the models to catch the storm and I believe it was. I remember people saying that they wished that the NAM would at least show a storm and so on. Well theres a difference between catching on to the storm and getting it right. The NAM didn't budge from ~60 hrs out with pretty much any facet of the storm including thermal profiles. It was correct with my surface temperature almost to the exact degree at 60 or so hrs which is very impressive in a dynamic system like that. The GFS was laughably bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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