MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 12z GEFS are colder and more slightly more east than the op run. The front is quicker on the GEFS compared to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I know its the mean, but it just looks like a front. 12z GEFS are colder and more slightly more east than the op run. The front is quicker on the GEFS compared to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Looks nice, lol, but soundings are terrible. Truth is that even if the storm were to take the perfect track, this pattern would not support any type of frozen precip until you get to the much higher elevations of our area. As per 12z GFS all snow event for areas up this way http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KMGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 We are teetering on the edge of a complete disaster if you ask me. Obviously the next week or maybe two isn't terrible, but the indicators thereafter with the MJO going back through unfavorable stages are not good. If the PNA ridge flattens out west, we are essentially cooked through New Years. With a raging positive AO and NAO, there will be nothing to stop it. The forecast guidance also is beginning to show troughiness returning to Alaska and the NE Pacific which is the worst thing I've seen all morning. Well, the MJO likely will enter the COD in a couple weeks, making it a non factor, the PNA ridge probably will revert to Nina climo/retrograde southwestward, so agreed there. However, I will be surprised if the NAO and AO are raging positive 2-3 weeks from now. There are quite a few theories being tested this winter, and among the contradictions are a cold stratosphere which is unfavorable, but high nern hemisphere snowcover (from late oct - early nov), and significantly lower geomagnetic activity in November, all should begin to influence the NAO/AO, lowering those values by week 3. If both the NAO and AO are still raging positive 3 weeks from now - then yeah, we're cooked, probably for most of the winter as well, but I'm not expecting it to play out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Agree. I think some are a bit too pessimistic on even light event opportunities, which are certainly possible in this pattern. I can point to numerous past examples in which we had a light or even moderate snowfall with a +PNA/-EPO yet +AO/+NAO signal. And as you said, all we really need is a few inches for this to be considered a normal month. The pattern isn't a complete disaster the next couple weeks; if the PNA was neg and the EPO positive in conjunction with the horrible arctic/atlantic, THEN it would be a complete and utter disaster. But thankfully the north pacific is essentially saving the northern tier from torching. I agree light/moderate events are typical for December. But what does ONLY THAT put us on track for? A typical winter, with mostly snow to rainstorms for NYC/LI. While the inland areas get socked with more snow. Despite how spoiled we've been with winter this past decade, I don't think we well ever be satisfied with just a typical winter in the NYC/LI area. That's why we have this discussion every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I agree light/moderate events are typical for December. But what does ONLY THAT put us on track for? A typical winter, with mostly snow to rainstorms for NYC/LI. While the inland areas get socked with more snow. Despite how spoiled we've been with winter this past decade, I don't think we well ever be satisfied with just a typical winter in the NYC/LI area. That's why we have this discussion every year. Wrong my friend. I'd be very satisfied with a normal winter because I know how horribly wrong things can go. It's not like we average 5 inches so we need to beg for an above normal winter every year. 25-30 inches is an amount no one should be scoffing at. It could easily be a 5-10 inch winter if the sh-t hits the fan. Btw since when is the city known for snow to rain events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I agree light/moderate events are typical for December. But what does ONLY THAT put us on track for? A typical winter, with mostly snow to rainstorms for NYC/LI. While the inland areas get socked with more snow. Despite how spoiled we've been with winter this past decade, I don't think we well ever be satisfied with just a typical winter in the NYC/LI area. That's why we have this discussion every year. I think its next to impossible for the entire area to be satisifed as a whole. Someone is bound to get shafted every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Everyone being so negative on here, when just the other day, everyone was saying basically we were screwed to atleat the end of december with no shot of snow before late december, now we are tracking a poss snow this week???? So as you can see things can and will change very quickly. We are teetering on the edge of a complete disaster if you ask me. Obviously the next week or maybe two isn't terrible, but the indicators thereafter with the MJO going back through unfavorable stages are not good. If the PNA ridge flattens out west, we are essentially cooked through New Years. With a raging positive AO and NAO, there will be nothing to stop it. The forecast guidance also is beginning to show troughiness returning to Alaska and the NE Pacific which is the worst thing I've seen all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 As per 12z GFS all snow event for areas up this way http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KMGJ That data isn't where the problem is--it's in the levels slightly below 850mb. But in your case, the soundings are good too (at least at 00z Friday) so it looks like a decent amount of snow regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 That data isn't where the problem is--it's in the levels slightly below 850mb. But in your case, the soundings are good too (at least at 00z Friday) so it looks like a decent amount of snow regardless. I would think if the precip came down hard enough it would overcome that small warm layer even for areas just outside the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 We are teetering on the edge of a complete disaster if you ask me. Obviously the next week or maybe two isn't terrible, but the indicators thereafter with the MJO going back through unfavorable stages are not good. If the PNA ridge flattens out west, we are essentially cooked through New Years. With a raging positive AO and NAO, there will be nothing to stop it. The forecast guidance also is beginning to show troughiness returning to Alaska and the NE Pacific which is the worst thing I've seen all morning. What the **** man? You told me last night that everything will be just fine. JERK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Euro looks nothing like the GFS...low exits off the coast with some very light QPF (rain) with temps in the low 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 UKIE still shows a low near our area but it's warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The 12z JMA is a compromise between the Euro and GFS with a more robust storm than the Euro is showing but keeps the heaviest precip over Eastern Virginia. In our area it would be like 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The 12z JMA is a compromise between the Euro and GFS with a more robust storm than the Euro is showing but keeps the heaviest precip over Eastern Virginia. In our area it would be like 1-3 inches. The Euro isn't all that far away from being something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Euro looks nothing like the GFS...low exits off the coast with some very light QPF (rain) with temps in the low 40's. I think your European model is struggling big time with this system... You know how you always ask me where the NOGAPS is Well this is because you think it is a horrible model -where as I think it is a great tool ..to flag the other guidance.. Well ... They look almost identical.. In other words if the NOGAPS is horrible then that would equate to the potential that either the NOGAPS is correct here...or the ECM is wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I think your European model is struggling big time with this system... You know how you always ask me where the NOGAPS is Well this is because you think it is a horrible model -where as I think it is a great tool ..to flag the other guidance.. Well ... They look almost identical.. In other words if the NOGAPS is horrible then that would equate to the potential that either the NOGAPS is correct here...or the ECM is wrong.. At least we don't have to endure a miserable cold rain if they're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I think your European model is struggling big time with this system... You know how you always ask me where the NOGAPS is Well this is because you think it is a horrible model -where as I think it is a great tool ..to flag the other guidance.. Well ... They look almost identical.. In other words if the NOGAPS is horrible then that would equate to the potential that either the NOGAPS is correct here...or the ECM is wrong.. If any model is struggling with this system, it's the GFS. Since 12z yesterday, it's going anywhere from a big inland low over PA to flat wave going off the mid-Atlantic coast. The Euro has been consistent with keeping this a flat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 If any model is struggling with this system, it's the GFS. Since 12z yesterday, it's going from big inland low over PA to flat wave going off the mid-Atlantic coast. The Euro has been consistent with keep this a flat wave. While the ensemble means have been consistent with the solution it is showing now. While the ECM ensemble means have been more consistent with showing something like the GFS but not as strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I very much appreciate your input here as to figuring out what is going to happen with this system. My conclusion at the moment is that I have no clue what the hell is going to happen. While the ensemble means have been consistent with the solution it is showing now. While the ECM ensemble means have been more consistent with showing something like the GFS but not as strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 While the ensemble means have been consistent with the solution it is showing now. While the ECM ensemble means have been more consistent with showing something like the GFS but not as strong... It's possible the Euro could be wrong. But I don't view it as "struggling", if it continues to hold on to a similar solution. It also harder to beat, when it is consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I guess the UKIE is a compromise between the Euro and GFS, though the further east track would probably have lighter QPF and less cooling than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 This is a VERY true statement. It is difficult to go against the Euro when it has shown the same solution for 3 runs in a row now and is the ONLY model to do this. it is also difficult to go against the GFS ensemble mean which has been consistent. My deciding factor will be the control run of the Euro that comes out around 4pm. If it continues with a more out to sea solution, backing the operational run, then I will say that it is game over, most likely. If it goes more robust like the GFS, then I will say game on. It's possible the Euro could be wrong. But I don't view it as "struggling", if it continues to hold on to a similar solution. It also harder to beat, when it is consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I guess the UKIE is a compromise between the Euro and GFS though the further east track would probably have lighter QPF and less cooling than the GFS. That in my opinion is just another factor into pointing out that the ECM most likely is wrong with its solution. UKMET is often referred to as the ECM little brother.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 This is also a true statement and is why I say that I have absolutely no clue what the hell is going to happen. I am really waiting for the control run of the Euro to help me out at 4pm. That in my opinion is just another factor into pointing out that the ECM most likely is wrong with its solution. UKMET is often referred to as the ECM little brother.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 This is a VERY true statement. It is difficult to go against the Euro when it has shown the same solution for 3 runs in a row now and is the ONLY model to do this. it is also difficult to go against the GFS ensemble mean which has been consistent. My deciding factor will be the control run of the Euro that comes out around 4pm. If it continues with a more out to sea solution, backing the operational run, then I will say that it is game over, most likely. If it goes more robust like the GFS, then I will say game on. However..see that is the thing the ECM has not been consistent on this system. Not sure why people are saying it is... Seems like some people forgot about this one... Looks very GFS like here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 It's possible the Euro could be wrong. But I don't view it as "struggling", if it continues to hold on to a similar solution. It also harder to beat, when it is consistent. I don't think you can use consistency as a metric for accuracy as we have seen in the past models being consistently wrong up until the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 That in my opinion is just another factor into pointing out that the ECM most likely is wrong with its solution. UKMET is often referred to as the ECM little brother.. The track may be a compromise but the UKMET looks faster than the other guidance. I think tonight and tomorrows Euro solution will probably be the way to go. Yesterday's GFS had the low cutting to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 However..see that is the thing the ECM has not been consistent on this system. Not sure why people are saying it is... Seems like some people forgot about this one... Looks very GFS like here... It looks flat and offshore to me. Which is not major difference. I think the GGEM kind of supports the Euro. The low over LI at 72hrs on the GGEM, is really not the same system the GFS and UKMET are develop down the south. The GFS and UKMET models are cutting off more shortwave energy, down the base side of the trough and developing a stronger wave out it. The Euro is doing is too, but keeping it flatter: http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 That is somewhere in the middle, but in my opinion it is closer to the current European model. That was also three runs ago and the last two runs are nearly identical. It is just so hard to go against the Euro. It seems that every time I do I get burnt. Hesitant to do it again. Maybe this is the time it is wrong but it is doubtful. Not impossible, but doubtful. It is difficult to believe that the GFS is somehow handling this storm better than the Euro. It is possible, just not highly likely. Of course, I hope the GFS is right, but it probably isn't. However..see that is the thing the ECM has not been consistent on this system. Not sure why people are saying it is... Seems like some people forgot about this one... Looks very GFS like here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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