ag3 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The strength of the PV was underestimated and is squashing all potential shortwaves and locking in pretty cold weather for many days. Better off because an amplified solution would've been a torch and rain anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Thought I'd put today's models into perspective to see just how bad the consistency was... it's even worse than I thought: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The strength of the PV was underestimated and is squashing all potential shortwaves and locking in pretty cold weather for many days. Better off because an amplified solution would've been a torch and rain anyway. Cold and dry run. It warms up 1 day before really cold air comes back at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Here's a great shot of what I was talking about. Look at the shortwave over the Plains. That's unbelievably far west considering the early model progs on this system, and even the progs a day or two before it. It may be hard to see, but imagine the swing motion that the shortwave was in at the time. It was literally about to scoop up and phase with the shortwave over the Gulf, and go on to create the beast that was Dec 26 2010. RUC Analysis (what eventually happened) http://i.imgur.com/gBDU4.gif Here is the NAM 36 hour forecast on this peice of vorticity. I mean, really? It's not even on the map remotely close to where it ended up. Instead it's over Iowa moving southeast. This run eventually went out to sea (what a surprise), but it was THIS feature that the models were missing. NAM 36 hrs (36 hr lead on this vort over Plains, probably about 60+ hrs for our storm itself) http://i.imgur.com/7G3F0.gif Not saying the timing of shortwaves wasn't an issue. But all you really had to do, was look at the highly amplified ridge over Northern Rockies, at the time, to know this wasn't likely going OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 It looks like a GGEM has a wave on the front. Can't tell for sure from these maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The GEFS mean takes the low from Georgia to Nova Scotia with 850's below freezing for NYC. It looks nothing like the operational run. Lots of precip for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Extremely FWIW since the GFS is having obvious problems with next week's storm five days out. The long range on the 0z GFS was one of the coldest runs that it has produced for the area and has remained very consistent with sustained cold in the east with a nice deep drough in the long range, with an extremely transient warm period (approximately 1 day). The 0z GFS Fantasy Range shows the 0 C 850s getting into the northern GOMEX as -20C 850s start to pop up in the Central part of the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not buying the 6z gfs. It keeps the vort the ideal strength and position going across the country. In this pattern, its a 1 in a million shot. If any of the northern energy gets involved, its too amplified. If the vort is even slightly weaker, its south and a non-event. We have seen this many times in similar patterns and I haven't seen one work out yet. Also, look how the GFS has the HP off the coast ahead of the storm, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not buying the 6z gfs. It keeps the vort the ideal strength and position going across the country. In this pattern, its a 1 in a million shot. If any of the northern energy gets involved, its too amplified. If the vort is even slightly weaker, its south and a non-event. We have seen this many times in similar patterns and I haven't seen one work out yet. Also, look how the GFS has the HP off the coast ahead of the storm, not good. I strongly agree. But some people still want to hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 This can be a threatening look sometimes, with that shortwave diving down the east side of the PNA ridge and some cold air re-assertion over the area. But not in this pattern, with the SE Ridge likely to shunt the cold air out in between systems...and the lack of blocking likely to let that shortwave over the Pac NW take an unfavorable track. http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_0z/f156.gif We are going to be off to a slow start this year, but we'll get through it. All we really need are a light event or two, perhaps a snow/mix to rain scenario or two which is very possible in the upcoming pattern..and we have ourselves a normal start/normal December. Think Dec. 2008, had its warmth and cold shots with general light/moderate mixing events in the middle of the month..a pretty damn normal December for a change lol. If were talking a slow start relative to the Decembers we've had this decade, then yes you would be spot on. The AO is +5 right now, but were talking light/mixing events that i think the -EPO/occasional +PNA over the coming 2 weeks can produce. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 12z GFS goes boom. It's warmer though for our area. Good hit for parts of SNE and upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 12z GFS goes boom. It's warmer though for our area. Good hit for parts of SNE and upstate NY. Sorry Anthony, not happening....terrible pattern, no cold air, +AO, +NAO, -PNA, ABCDEFG 3-6", lollis to 8" is my first guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 12z GFS goes boom. It's warmer though for our area. Good hit for parts of SNE and upstate NY. Leave it right there please... Thank you Nonetheless..I find it hard to believe that can happen in this pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Sorry Anthony, not happening....terrible pattern, no cold air, +AO, +NAO, -PNA, ABCDEFG 3-6", lollis to 8" is my first guess +AO,+NAO,+PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 +AO,+NAO,+PNA Touche....it's coming and nothing can stop it from happening. Those who have faith will be richly rewarded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Looks nice, lol, but soundings are terrible. Truth is that even if the storm were to take the perfect track, this pattern would not support any type of frozen precip until you get to the much higher elevations of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Looks nice, lol, but soundings are terrible. Truth is that even if the storm were to take the perfect track, this pattern would not support any type of frozen precip until you get to the much higher elevations of our area. Nice thumping to the north and west of the City. The City also gets a few inches from the clow map lol. http://i40.tinypic.com/2mg416p.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not that this is going to verify at all, but this run would produce a pretty odd looking temp anomaly map over the course of the next 8 or so days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Nice thumping to the north and west of the City. The City also gets a few inches from the clow map lol. Look at the soundings, it's terrible even at MMU at 00z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Look at the soundings, it's terrible even at MMU at 00z Friday. Yep, just saw them. I don't know what the snow map is smoking. I doubt this solution will verify though. Lets see what the other models show. I bet they are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Here's what is likely a much more accurate map http://instantweathe...WI3_sfc_105.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Sorry, nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Just took a look at the GGEM. I don't even see a low on the black and white maps . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 The AO is well above +5.0 now. This pattern could take two to three or more weeks to get out of, considering the loop into the COD that the MJO is forecast to take and the cold stratosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The GFS is much more amplified with the 500 vort versus the 00z EURO and yesterdays 12Z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 The AO actually reached 5.6 per the data -- which I believe makes it the second highest AO reading on record. I'll have to double check that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 All we really need are a light event or two, perhaps a snow/mix to rain scenario or two which is very possible in the upcoming pattern..and we have ourselves a normal start/normal December. Think Dec. 2008, had its warmth and cold shots with general light/moderate mixing events in the middle of the month..a pretty damn normal December for a change lol. If were talking a slow start relative to the Decembers we've had this decade, then yes you would be spot on. The AO is +5 right now, but were talking light/mixing events that i think the -EPO/occasional +PNA over the coming 2 weeks can produce. We shall see Agree. I think some are a bit too pessimistic on even light event opportunities, which are certainly possible in this pattern. I can point to numerous past examples in which we had a light or even moderate snowfall with a +PNA/-EPO yet +AO/+NAO signal. And as you said, all we really need is a few inches for this to be considered a normal month. The pattern isn't a complete disaster the next couple weeks; if the PNA was neg and the EPO positive in conjunction with the horrible arctic/atlantic, THEN it would be a complete and utter disaster. But thankfully the north pacific is essentially saving the northern tier from torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The AO actually reached 5.6 per the data -- which I believe makes it the second highest AO reading on record. I'll have to double check that, though. Don and Chris are already on this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Agree. I think some are a bit too pessimistic on even light event opportunities, which are certainly possible in this pattern. I can point to numerous past examples in which we had a light or even moderate snowfall with a +PNA/-EPO yet +AO/+NAO signal. And as you said, all we really need is a few inches for this to be considered a normal month. The pattern isn't a complete disaster the next couple weeks; if the PNA was neg and the EPO positive in conjunction with the horrible arctic/atlantic, THEN it would be a complete and utter disaster. But thankfully the north pacific is essentially saving the northern tier from torching. We are teetering on the edge of a complete disaster if you ask me. Obviously the next week or maybe two isn't terrible, but the indicators thereafter with the MJO going back through unfavorable stages are not good. If the PNA ridge flattens out west, we are essentially cooked through New Years. With a raging positive AO and NAO, there will be nothing to stop it. The forecast guidance also is beginning to show troughiness returning to Alaska and the NE Pacific which is the worst thing I've seen all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Don and Chris are already on this: http://www.americanw...ber-reaches-35/ Nice, thanks. I figured Don and/or Chris would have the hard data somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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