bass28 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 euro damn! harsh run for the christmas area storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 euro damn! harsh run for the christmas area storm. The bolded adjective does not tell me much....does it bring snow into the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The bolded adjective does not tell me much....does it bring snow into the area? He probably meant that it's a torch for us or the storm gets suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 He probably meant that it's a torch for us or the storm gets suppressed. Temperatures are in the 30s inland 40s along the coast with a low pressure off the coast around 204 hrs which is a coastal hugger. By 210 temperatures start to crash towards the coast...But by 216 it is out of here.. Its a decent threat to track at least at this point and time as well as the one HM alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Temperatures are in the 30s inland 40s along the coast with a low pressure off the coast around 204 hrs which is a coastal hugger. By 210 temperatures start to crash towards the coast...But by 216 it is out of here.. Its a decent threat to track at least at this point and time as well as the one HM alluded to. People are really worried about details 200+ out? Lol, at least there is something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 NAM keeps everyone, including the coast, below 32 as the high and lows in the low 20's. Another example of an over performing northerly flow cold event for us here. Even without decent snow cover to the north, we were able to blow out the MOS for the coldest readings of the month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The 12/22-23 system has a good orientation with the upstream high pressure / cold air in place along with the baroclinic zone along the coast. If this southern s/w doesn't shear out like the models are currently suggesting, this will become a coastal storm with accumulating snow. My worry with the system on the 26th will be the fast speed, lack of upstream high pressure and cold air that can easily erode should the track of the system call for it. A lot would have to come together just right with a system like that (same ordeal happened with 12/7). Often the southern branch s/w is stronger than modeled. So I agree it's something to watch for 22/23. But if that southern branch is stronger, it could also kick up the heights along east coast and keep the cold front from reaching us, until it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The Ensemble mean has tomorrow as the coldest day out of the next 10 days. The low Sunday am has a shot of being the coldest for the month of December when all said and done. If anyone want's to do an over or under, I'll guess that 23 degrees stands as the low for the whole month of December in NYC. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2011/12/18/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 If anyone want's to do an over or under, I'll guess that 23 degrees stands as the low for the whole month of December in NYC. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2011/12/18/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA There is a shot of getting close to that again in the day 7-9 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 There is a shot of getting close to that again in the day 7-9 period. I'll guess that the low stays above 23 degrees in NYC then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 FWIW, hour 192 of the 12z GFS looks more interesting. Not sure if it's rain to snow or just rain, but at least there's something showing up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 FWIW, hour 192 of the 12z GFS looks more interesting. Not sure if it's rain to snow or just rain, but at least there's something showing up there. All rain. Sorry, youre not gonna get snow with a low up in SE Canada like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 the models are having all sorts of issues dealing with the cut offs in the SW. Anything past 150 isnt worth looking at IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 the models are having all sorts of issues dealing with the cut offs in the SW. Anything past 150 isnt worth looking at IMO 100% agreed. GFS literally changes it entire run ever 6 hours. These models are just hilarious and pitiful this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 FWIW, hour 192 of the 12z GFS looks more interesting. Not sure if it's rain to snow or just rain, but at least there's something showing up there. That particular frame of the GFS actually looks very similar to December 5th 2009 event where parts of NW NJ got several inches of snow in a rain to snow changeover event that took place throughout that Saturday day in all of NJ from NW to SE. It was a weak system that had a plume of moisture that is similar to this particular plume of moisture, and the area of low pressure was weak, just like what the GFS depicts for that storm. (NOTE: The GGEM map below is for the December 5th 2009 storm, NOT for the storm to impact the area around Christmas time). The precursor to that storm also brought record setting snow in parts of Texas, and Louisianna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 100% agreed. GFS literally changes it entire run ever 6 hours. These models are just hilarious and pitiful this year. The real problem has been the handling of the split streams for exact positions of the lows. But the models have ultimately settled on warm solutions with the big +AO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 easy forecasts for the next few weeks (month?) whatever amplifies will rain on us due to zero blocking and the SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 easy forecasts for the next few weeks (month?) whatever amplifies will rain on us due to zero blocking and the SE ridge there's plenty of cold air in Canada now, so behind the storm systems we should still see some cold air which should beat down the positive departures a bit. It's a shame it will all be shunted away any time it precipitates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 every major nyc airport was AOB freezing today except newark. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 every major nyc airport was AOB freezing today except newark. lol It still hasn't cooled down from July 22nd yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 every major nyc airport was AOB freezing today except newark. lol Weird. Newark is usually the worst UHI offender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Long range on the Euro just gets worse and worse, huge +AO/+NAO basically the worst pattern possible into Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Temps keep rising here, high of 31.2 right now @ 10:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Temps keep rising here, high of 31.2 right now @ 10:30. Still dropping a bit here, down to 18. Winds out of the sw though, didnt look earlier to see if thats been the case for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Still dropping a bit here, down to 18. Winds out of the sw though, didnt look earlier to see if thats been the case for a while now. Up to 31.5 and a very slight W wind so its not like warmer air is coming off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 At least we we were able to see one daily -10 departure for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Upton's take on the upcoming patter THE NEXT WAVE COMES ABOUT LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FEEL RATHER CONFIDENT IN THIS SYSTEM BASED ON ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE HELD POPS TO 50% BASED ON COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES. TEMPS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT INLAND AREAS DO LOOK LIKE A P-TYPE OF MAINLY SN. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE SUPPORTED (INLAND)...THOUGH TEMPS MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A GRASSY...SECONDARY ROAD TYPE OF ACCUMULATION. MAJOR UNCERTAINTY ARISES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS. THE GEFS DOES NOT SUPPORT THE 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN...BUT ALSO DOES NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE 12Z ECMWF EITHER. THE CMC IS DRY. THE GEFS SEEMS TO BE LEANING MORE TOWARDS A SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENT. THUS FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH THE LOW CHC POPS SATURDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY WITH 40 POP CENTERED FOR SUNDAY. P TYPE IS MAINLY LIQUID FOR THE COAST...BUT MAINLY SNOW NW...THOUGH WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NO CONFIDENCE FOR ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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