MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 This GFS run actually isn't that bad for the medium range FWIW. After the Fri/Sat trough, another one is ready to drop into the region towards hour 192. Still going to change plenty of times though. A lot of potential in the 24-26 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Agree, 5-10 isn't bad, I'm mostly referrencing D 10 and beyond, verification scores really fall off. I generally agree about the OP runs past day 5 on the pattern. But the ensembles are more useful at this range still.The AK vortex shows up 6-10 day Euro ensemble mean: And it isn't like there is no reason to believe this solution, MJO although generally weak is forecast by Euro and other stall out phases 4/5 next week: http://www.cpc.ncep....IVAR/ecmf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Agree, 5-10 isn't bad, I'm mostly referrencing D 10 and beyond, verification scores really fall off. I agree. I am not even sure why they bother running the GFS past 240 hrs. I would run it twice a day through 240 at the same resolution for all hours. I would only do a 6z and 18z through 120 hrs since those off hour runs are much more helpful over the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 So focus on 120 hours and under then? Good advice that has been given many times in the past and rarely heeded. Why anyone would fret over the 11-15 day period on any ensemble mean is simply madness. I think this group is quite savvy and gets this, but there are many who don't and waste precious time hand wringing over something that none of us have control over to begin with......Let's not define insanity as a collective group, yeah? Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 CFS shows a snowstorm for our area on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 CFS shows a snowstorm for our area on Christmas. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Can't post the link. I am on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 0z nam keeps the area in the upper 20's and low 30's all day tomorrow. Shows it never getting above freezing all day. Soundings have a 1pm temp of 28 degrees in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 0z nam keeps the area in the upper 20's and low 30's all day tomorrow. Shows it never getting above freezing all day. Soundings have a 1pm temp of 28 degrees in NYC. It has to cool off first though. Down to 33 but its not as if temps are plummeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 It has to cool off first though. Down to 33 but its not as if temps are plummeting. On a north wind with CAA, the cold air funnels down the Hudson seemingly unimpeded. It is definitely the best surface flow for keeping a cold air mass entrenched in NYC. Much of Quebec is below zero and that is our source region - of course we won't see it that low, but struggling to reach 30 tomorrow and remaining in the 20's is not a stretch to believe, even in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Temps do not have to plummet for us to get that cold, a steady decrease throughout the night is all it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Temp doing a Tom Petty now, as the clouds cleared it began dropping like a rock 27 mostly clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Plenty of cold draining south now, just went outside took a deep breath and felt awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 0z nam keeps the area in the upper 20's and low 30's all day tomorrow. Shows it never getting above freezing all day. Soundings have a 1pm temp of 28 degrees in NYC. That's starting to sound a bit too cold... the models do seem to have a slight cold temperature bias with cold spells, and this is probably another one of them, but it's odd how the models keep trending colder for tomorrow despite the fact that it's within the 24 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 That's starting to sound a bit too cold... the models do seem to have a slight cold temperature bias with cold spells, and this is probably another one of them, but it's odd how the models keep trending colder for tomorrow despite the fact that it's within the 24 hour range. Several cool shots this season have over performed. Even today was a few degrees below the forecast. I can see the NAM verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 27 here dropped 3 degrees in 2 hours. Forecasted low of 23, it'll probably get colder than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 31 here. Expecting the coldest night of the season thus far with lows in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Several cool shots this season have over performed. Even today was a few degrees below the forecast. I can see the NAM verifying. Interestingly even the GFS isn't as cold as the NAM, although they're still close. Either way, whether it's 30 or 33 degrees tomorrow, it's going to be the coldest day we've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Interestingly even the GFS isn't as cold as the NAM, although they're still close. Either way, whether it's 30 or 33 degrees tomorrow, it's going to be the coldest day we've seen so far. An enthusiastic junior high school earth science student could likely forecast next day 2 meter temps with greater precision than the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Looks like the 00z GFS just misses a phase around Christmas? It has potential this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 An enthusiastic junior high school earth science student could likely forecast next day 2 meter temps with greater precision than the GFS... The specific 2m temps on the GFS definitely aren't very reliable. I actually find myself a lot of the time automatically correcting the GFS temperatures in my head when looking at the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I think the post-Christmas storm will be the one to watch. Not saying the storm on X-mas Eve can not happen, but I like the set-up better for X-mas day w/ cold air in place and a more favorable PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Gfs has 1pm temps around 32-33 for the city tomorrow. Not that far off from NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I think the post-Christmas storm will be the one to watch. Not saying the storm on X-mas Eve can not happen, but I like the set-up better for X-mas day w/ cold air in place and a more favorable PNA JB in his latest blog said watch out for a big east coast storm somewhere between Christmas and New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 0z GEFS mean has a signal for a storm on the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 0z GEFS mean has a signal for a storm on the 26th. Wouldn't it be something if we could manage a boxing day storm in this crappy december. I wouldn't on it, but if there's a period to produce its Christmas-New Years as the PNA ridge orients itself in the Western US. Much more favorable position than earlier this month, especially if we can get the axis over to ID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Wouldn't it be something if we could manage a boxing day storm in this crappy december. I wouldn't on it, but if there's a period to produce its Christmas-New Years as the PNA ridge orients itself in the Western US. Much more favorable position than earlier this month, especially if we can get the axis over to ID. I wouldn't rule out the system on the 23rd quite yet. I know the models seem to be shearing this thing out but I could see this trending slightly stronger. In fact, the new 00z ECMWF is trickling in with some N. Mid Atlantic -SN this run. Having said that, I do agree that the PNA driven period will be active with something lining up after Christmas. The only thing I will warn about this period will be the potential for mixing/changing over, perhaps even all rain. Despite the cold source and awesome PNA signal, no blocking will likely leave us with poorly placed high pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I wouldn't rule out the system on the 23rd quite yet. I know the models seem to be shearing this thing out but I could see this trending slightly stronger. In fact, the new 00z ECMWF is trickling in with some N. Mid Atlantic -SN this run. Having said that, I do agree that the PNA driven period will be active with something lining up after Christmas. The only thing I will warn about this period will be the potential for mixing/changing over, perhaps even all rain. Despite the cold source and awesome PNA signal, no blocking will likely leave us with poorly placed high pressures. there's def. a signal for a storm around the 26-28th period. The euro hangs back some southern stream energy so we dont get a phase but the potential is there with the ridge out west amplifying the trough. Bad thing is there is no blocking so it can cut inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 there's def. a signal for a storm around the 26-28th period. The euro hangs back some southern stream energy so we dont get a phase but the potential is there with the ridge out west amplifying the trough. Bad thing is there is no blocking so it can cut inland The 12/22-23 system has a good orientation with the upstream high pressure / cold air in place along with the baroclinic zone along the coast. If this southern s/w doesn't shear out like the models are currently suggesting, this will become a coastal storm with accumulating snow. My worry with the system on the 26th will be the fast speed, lack of upstream high pressure and cold air that can easily erode should the track of the system call for it. A lot would have to come together just right with a system like that (same ordeal happened with 12/7). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The 12/22-23 system has a good orientation with the upstream high pressure / cold air in place along with the baroclinic zone along the coast. If this southern s/w doesn't shear out like the models are currently suggesting, this will become a coastal storm with accumulating snow. My worry with the system on the 26th will be the fast speed, lack of upstream high pressure and cold air that can easily erode should the track of the system call for it. A lot would have to come together just right with a system like that (same ordeal happened with 12/7). For those who like to use the NOGAPS theory, its interesting to note it may be the least progressive with that 12/23 event of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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