bluewave Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 What happened to all the cold air in Alaska and Northern Canada? Relative to the means Alaska warmed and the SW cooled off with the change in the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 18z NAM keeps everyone below 32 tomorrow as highs. Just north of NYC, 20's as highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 18z NAM keeps everyone below 32 tomorrow as highs. Just north of NYC, 20's as highs. The models have been gradually trending colder for tomorrow's highs. I'm pretty sure some slight cold bias is involved in the widespread sub-freezing high temperatures on the NAM, but regardless, a lot of us are probably looking at highs in the mid 30s tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 What an awful awful awful run of the Euro, see you in feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 What an awful awful awful run of the Euro, see you in feb How was the run awful? I already had a discussion about this in the SNE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 How was the run awful? I already had a discussion about this in the SNE thread. Toward the end of the run, the PV reappears in Alaska and the flow overall looks very zonal. Forget about any kind of significant winter weather here if that happens. We likely get blowtorched with Pacific air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 How was the run awful? I already had a discussion about this in the SNE thread. It shows no change of the current awful pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Toward the end of the run, the PV reappears in Alaska and the flow overall looks very zonal. Forget about any kind of significant winter weather here if that happens. We likely get blowtorched with Pacific air. Why everyone thinks this looks bad is beyond me ..the control run shows three threats within the 10 day period....first one 144 hrs ..second 198 and third 240 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Toward the end of the run, the PV reappears in Alaska and the flow overall looks very zonal. Forget about any kind of significant winter weather here if that happens. We likely get blowtorched with Pacific air. Yeah because we know how accurate those long range runs are I never take model runs seriously after 5 days out because they change like night and day from one run to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 What an awful awful awful run of the Euro, see you in feb Okie dokie...not happy with the latest model run? Wait till the next model solution. Flip... flop... flip.. flop....after all model runs are always set in stone especially in the long range. See you in FEb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Toward the end of the run, the PV reappears in Alaska and the flow overall looks very zonal. Forget about any kind of significant winter weather here if that happens. We likely get blowtorched with Pacific air. But it looks fine days 5-10. Anything past day 7, is fantasy range anyway. Pattern is still pretty crumby, but the run was cold once we get past the next lakes cutter on Tuesday. There is a 1 day torch ahead of the lakes cutter, but the other 9 days were average to below average temps. The pattern will remain crappy for a while. The short PNA spikes are what we have to cash in on. And right now all models, including the euro, show it in the day 6 and the day 8 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Yeah because we know how accurate those long range runs are I never take model runs seriously after 5 days out because they change like night and day from one run to the next. Good post. The long range is a crapshoot and it will likely change with the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 But it looks fine days 5-10. Anything past day 7, is fantasy range anyway. Pattern is still pretty crumby, but the run was cold once we get past the next lakes cutter on Tuesday. There is a 1 day torch ahead of the lakes cutter, but the other 9 days were average to below average temps. The pattern will remain crappy for a while. The short PNA spikes are what we have to cash in on. And right now all models, including the euro, show it in the day 6 and the day 8 timeframe. The gulf moisture at 138-156 hours looks interesting and we will have a fresh cold air mass in place, maybe some Christmas Eve snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The Ensemble mean has tomorrow as the coldest day out of the next 10 days. The low Sunday am has a shot of being the coldest for the month of December when all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Possibly the coldest night if things clear out later tonight, I think tomorrow night may be the coldest for some but it depends on when the high clouds begin to arrive. I think tomorrow most of the suburbs and the city will see temperatures no higher than 34-35 degrees and easily into the 20s by 7-8 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The Ensemble mean has tomorrow as the coldest day out of the next 10 days. The low Sunday am has a shot of being the coldest for the month of December when all said and done. What was it showing a week ago for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The Ensemble mean has tomorrow as the coldest day out of the next 10 days. The low Sunday am has a shot of being the coldest for the month of December when all said and done. NAM keeps everyone, including the coast, below 32 as the high and lows in the low 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 We are looking for more than just transient cold shots and lows off the coast. 850mb temps warmer than -6C aren't isn't very cold for us either. If we see a huge AK vortex showing up on the Euro and it's ensemble mean is correct, most the CONUS will start torching in 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 We are looking for more than just transient cold shots and lows off the coast. 850mb temps warmer than -6C aren't isn't very cold for us either. If we see a huge AK vortex showing up on the Euro and it's ensemble mean is correct, most the CONUS will start torching in 10 days or so. Of course. But that's not happening. Pattern is a warm and transient one. There are 2-3 shots of something over the next 10 days. If we time it out with the PNA spike, and we get snow, who cares if it torches after that. The reality is the warmth will continue for the foreseeable future but if we timeout a shortwave correctly, the ridge placement in the mid range allows for coastal amplification. A sustained cold period is not coming IMO, until the middle to end of January. People are looking for a 2010 and 2009 type pattern. That is NOT happening this year. Best we can hope for is a 93-94 gradient type pattern or a 2008-2009 one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 What was it showing a week ago for tomorrow? A cold front and trough swinging through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Yeah because we know how accurate those long range runs are I never take model runs seriously after 5 days out because they change like night and day from one run to the next. The specifics on the models are less important beyond the medium range, but the overall pattern is still terrible with the +NAO/+AO and the potential for an Alaskan PV to return. It should get colder for a brief time around the medium range with another transient trough, but in my opinion we'd be very lucky if we get to see more than light snow throughout the 10-day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Of course. But that's not happening. Pattern is a warm and transient one. There are 2-3 shots of something over the next 10 days. If we time it out with the PNA spike, and we get snow, who cares if it torches after that. The reality is the warmth will continue for the foreseeable future but if we timeout a shortwave correctly, the ridge placement in the mid range allows for coastal amplification. A sustained cold period is not coming IMO, until the middle to end of January. People are looking for a 2010 and 2009 type pattern. That is NOT happening this year. Best we can hope for is a 93-94 gradient type pattern or a 2008-2009 one. While i am not in your region i just wanted to say this is a very good and reasonable post. While the next few weeks will average out warm, a threat or two probably can still arise out of this pattern if everything were to fall right. HM (not the accu weather HM) hasn't given up winter by a long shot and that speaks volumes to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 If folks have learned anything from the past 1-1.5 months, it's to take model solutions beyond D 5 and essentially throw them in the trash bin. As far as I'm concerned, it's better to ride analogs and physical forcing mechanisms than get caught up in model runs in the long range. We all know a completely different solution for D 10+ will be portrayed on each new run. Until January proves me otherwise, I'm banking on the decrease in solar flux and geomagnetic activity to initiate the negative AO by early January. Long term guidance doesn't really concern me, and I'm happy to see the medium range trending progressively colder on data, because that's what matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 If folks have learned anything from the past 1-1.5 months, it's to take model solutions beyond D 5 and essentially throw them in the trash bin. As far as I'm concerned, it's better to ride analogs and physical forcing mechanisms than get caught up in model runs in the long range. We all know a completely different solution for D 10+ will be portrayed on each new run. Until January proves me otherwise, I'm banking on the decrease in solar flux and geomagnetic activity to initiate the negative AO by early January. Long term guidance doesn't really concern me, and I'm happy to see the medium range trending progressively colder on data, because that's what matters. The blended GFS/Euro 5-10 day 500 mb ensemble means have been pretty good so far. I just don't look at specific low and high positions past the Euro day 5 and the GFS day 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 What an awful awful awful run of the Euro, see you in feb Banter thread. Use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 18z gfs continues the cold around the Christmas period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The blended GFS/Euro 5-10 day 500 mb ensemble means have been pretty good so far. I just don't look at specific low and high positions past the Euro day 5 and the GFS day 3-4. Agree, 5-10 isn't bad, I'm mostly referrencing D 10 and beyond, verification scores really fall off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Is the GFS stuck at hr. 192 for anyone else? Looked like another rain event brewing around Christmas, so maybe the run isn't good enough to want to finish anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 This GFS run actually isn't that bad for the medium range FWIW. After the Fri/Sat trough, another one is ready to drop into the region towards hour 192. Still going to change plenty of times though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Is the GFS stuck at hr. 192 for anyone else? Looked like another rain event brewing around Christmas, so maybe the run isn't good enough to want to finish anyway. Same here, normally by now it'd be mostly through the 384 hour range... the GFS on the NCEP seems to have some problems recently, such as loading slowly or the GFS link not working. EDIT: Hour 204 just updated on the NCEP page. That precipitation on hour 192 ends up mostly suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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