TheTrials Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 So weird board works on my phone not computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 So weird board works on my phone not computer Dns issue. Should start working over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Alex Ur computer is working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Alex Ur computer is working? I use an iPad and it's working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 and its working, nice. NAM has a little precip over us at 84 hours, just turning cold enough for snow very cold 850's and surface temps just to the north. Hopefully another batch of WAA comes through before we go warm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The +PNA ridge is favorable position 12/25-26. Then vortex over AK, flattens it and the flow becomes progressive. The MJO becomes unfavorable as well. Most likely, we go through the 12/25-12/31 period, without a significant east coast storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Still very large disagreements on the models about the mid-long term pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Trials, Maybe this is the one you were talking about for the time frame of the 25-28th, just delayed a couple of days. Half kidding here, but desperately looking for something to talk about, the Euro control run that goes out to 360 hrs shows a developing low over northeastern North Carolina at 360 hrs that is coming right up the coast, possibly just off the coast. There is a weak 1026 mb high centered in the right spot over southwestern Quebec, north of Lake Ontario but weak as I stated, and the low is defintiely coming up the coast, having traveled from central South Carolina to northeastern North Carolina, just south of Virgina Beach. The 850's are about -4 at NYC and the 850 line is near Atlantic City. .25 precip has already fallen in NYC by 360 hrs with MUCH more to come. It is difficult to tell whether we would thread the needle on this one, but anyway, there is the play by play on a storm at 360 hrs on the control run of a model. How desperate is that for something to talk about? Anyway, yes 360 hrs is New Year's Eve at 7pm. While generally I think these types of posts are better kept to a banter thread because they are so far out, its good to keep the serious threads a foot. I really like what I have seen the past few days being modeled in the long range on the other side of the globe as we are seeing heights rising which is helping push the PV south and east which is helping us cool down over the east Also, looks like we see some real ridging out west, not off the coast. I am excited about the 25-28th time frame. Here it is on the euro ensembles Also notE the ridging over the top of greenland, its by no means a -NAO, but it may help to keep the cold air anchored in and slow down the pattern just a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The warmth is pretty much going to town this month with NYC running +5.6 for December with more on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Difference in departures from the last 4 days shows that almost the entire central and eastern US warmed up - with no significant below average temps sticking out in the long range as shown in the post above this one, there doesn't seem to be much to prevent December from ending up as a complete torch compared to average with widespread 6+ degree departures in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Gfs much different with day 5-6 timeframe. Much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The storm is just offshore but the differences with temperatures are pretty big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Gfs much different with day 5-6 timeframe. Much colder. Brrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Gfs much different with day 5-6 timeframe. Much colder. I wonder if the slowing down of the 21-22nd storm is the cause....seems like it crawls off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I wonder if the slowing down of the 21-22nd storm is the cause....seems like it crawls off the coast. Amazing differences with previous runs. Temps struggle to break freezing all of Christmas weekend on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Long range is really cold on the GFS. Way different than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 1st run all winter where a model has shown well below normal temps for an extended period in the medium range. Gfs has significantly cooled in the medium range of days 5-10 and the cold also extends into fantasy range as well. Let's hope it's a start of a pattern change and not just 1 false run of the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 1st run all winter where a model has shown well below normal temps for an extended period in the medium range. Gfs has significantly cooled in the medium range of days 5-10 and the cold also extends into fantasy range as well. Let's hope it's a start of a pattern change and not just 1 false run of the Gfs. It also shows 2 opportunites for a storm near Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The GFS, starting at 0z last night, has been more agressive with driving up higher heights over the arctic. Although we dont have a perfect block over greenland, it is enough to dislodge portions of that death vortex thats been sitting and spinning over the DS. This is why we see more cold oubreaks in the middle-longer range, the arctic is finally freeing up some of its bounty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 12z GGEM is just like the GFS. It gets really cold near Christmas with a storm offshore. Much different than the last run when the GGEM drove the low inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The GFS only gets our temperatures down to normal for Christmas weekend. The Arctic air stays up closer to SE Canada. It has NYC making a low of 30 degrees off the raw data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 ^^ That can't be true. The GFS was really cold. Here are the text soundings. Much different than that map. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=Knyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 ^^ That can't be true. The GFS was really cold. Here are the text soundings. Much different than that map. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=Knyc It's has a low of 30 degrees for next Saturday and a little colder before the truncation Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 It's has a low of 30 degrees for next weekend. Carry on. I thought you meant in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The GFS only gets our temperatures down to normal for Christmas weekend. The Arctic air stays up closer to SE Canada. It has NYC making a low of 30 degrees off the raw data. I'd caution against putting too much into 168 hr GFS 2m temps.... The overall pattern does support colder than average temps looking at the trough orientation, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I'd caution against putting too much into 168 hr GFS 2m temps.... The overall pattern does support colder than average temps looking at the trough orientation, etc. Well the GFS had low to mid 20's for the low on the 11th from a week out and NYC only made 29 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Carry on. I thought you meant in the long range. No problem, I would like to see what the Euro comes up with before buying the GFS past 72-120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 No problem, I would like to see what the Euro comes up with before buying the GFS past 72-120 hrs. 12z GGEM is also showing really cold air in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 12z GGEM is also showing really cold air in the mid range. I don't really like the GFS ensembles past the 6-10 day, but through next weekend all the cold is locked up closer to the PV over the Davis Strait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The warmth is pretty much going to town this month with NYC running +5.6 for December with more on the way. What happened to all the cold air in Alaska and Northern Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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