Winter 2011-2012 Kickoff Thread | December 2011

[NEXtreme]

Steven D:

Ensemble models are showing that cold and stormy conditions are evolving. Remember, physics wins over models.

[Alpha5]

Steven D:

odd statement given that the models are governed by physics....

[Momza]

odd statement given that the models are governed by physics....

Models are programmed by human information governed by physics

[nycsnow]

Tombo-if we can get the mjo to propagate into phase 7-8 instead of going into the circle of death then maybe we can see something...me thinks if the mjo can muster into these phases look for an epic cutter into the lake that changes something...just my 2 cents...

[Alpha5]

Tombo-if we can get the mjo to propagate into phase 7-8 instead of going into the circle of death then maybe we can see something...me thinks if the mjo can muster into these phases look for an epic cutter into the lake that changes something...just my 2 cents...

Which is what we need...but wont happen. If you got a sub 980 low to go across Michigan up into the Hudson bay, that would disrupt the PV thats just sitting over northern canada and greenland and be able to possibly draw in some warmer air into the DS.

[Edge Weather]

Keep sticking with that even though it's current verification scores are higher than those of the GFS throughout it's 8 day range.

the problem with the JMA is that for every big storm it gets right....there are like 10 that it gets wrong.

it is the JB of models.

[Edge Weather]

Well, we can all hope that the NOGAPS is right for the first time in it's history https://www.fnmoc.na...au=180&set=Core

All kidding aside though, the JMA has a developing low centered over Eastern Tennessee at the same time with a 1035mb high centered just north of New York State. The 850's will likely be too warm for snow on the JMA but it does look like it would be close for some NW burbs. Look at that NOGAPS though. We can only hope, although hoping for the NOGAPS to be right is something akin to winning the lottery. The Euro did do a big flip flop on this run, much closer to what the JMA is showing, bringing the same storm across Pennsylvania, and then NJ rather than bringing a bomb up into the Great Lakes. That was a major shift toward what the JMA was showing.

[Edge Weather]

I just noticed that the ensemble mean of the GFS has a low in the exact same spot on Sunday afternoon as both the JMA and the NOGAPS. The one main difference with the JMA is that it is not holding back the energy in the SW like the other models.

[TheTrials]

Oh my lord the weenism in this thread is out of control. And how much is Steve D paying you guys to post his thoughts and website every ten seconds in these threads? He did this at eastern too.

[Edge Weather]

Thanks for your insight on this developing storm.

Oh my lord the weenism in this thread is out of control. And how much is Steve D paying you guys to post his thoughts and website every ten seconds in these threads? He did this at eastern too.

[Mikehobbyst]

Simple statement: We might be shoveling soon. Imagine snowman emoticon after this.

[TheTrials]

Thanks for your insight on this developing storm.

what developing storm? nothing in the pattern indicates anything more than a inland runner or lakes cutter.

[TheTrials]

From coastalwx, one of the most even keeled and intelligent posters on this board. Hopefully this gives pause to those who follow the king weenies JB, Steve D etc. blindly

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30605-early-december-pattern-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__1184359

[Edge Weather]

Let's see, the 0z Euro that now takes the low across PA and NJ instead of into the Great Lakes early next week. The JMA, which has a low over eastern TN next Sunday, the GFS ensemble mean that has a precip max and apparent low over the same area that both the JMA and NOGAPS show next Sunday. Everyone laughs at the JMA yet it is the 2nd best piece of guidance that we have that goes out to 8 days, and the Euro has not done that well with the big storms lately even though it does have higher verification scores.

what developing storm? nothing in the pattern indicates anything more than a inland runner or lakes cutter.

[nycsnow]

From coastalwx, one of the most even keeled and intelligent posters on this board. Hopefully this gives pause to those who follow the king weenies JB, Steve D etc. blindly

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30605-early-december-pattern-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__1184359

Larry c is pretty good.

[Edge Weather]

There will be a big old High to the north of the developing low IF it develops over the weekend along the Gulf Coast rather than hold the energy back. That is the key. This is what the JMA is doing, it is NOT holding the energy back. Isn't this also a Euro bias? The GFS is also holding the energy back, but it has the worst verification scores of the three, so who cares what it is doing. The GFS has been horrendous past 4 days lately.

[TheTrials]

Larry c is pretty good.

subject to intense mood swings and when challenged about his forecasts would rather run and hide than own up to it or give his reasoning.

[nycsnow]

subject to intense mood swings and when challenged about his forecasts would rather run and hide than own up to it or give his reasoning.

True that's the thing you do have to give Steve d credit for he admits he's wrong, I think dt does at times to? Jb just talks about another storm when he's wrong

[MJO812]

HM

Well it appears that the 12/6-12 period did bring a coastal low and cold shot (ongoing). Looks like if you didn't have elevation on your side, the snow amounts on the 7th-8th are going in the book as traces. However, I am glad that this did get down into the Mid-Atlantic, even if it wasn't anything memorable.

The models are now keying in on the 12/18-20 period for a Midwest cyclone and Arctic plunge. It is very phase 7 looking, per the MJO composites. The semi-permanent E PAC ridge feature will likely expand as wavelengths elongate toward winter. The PNA will likely be a viable contender through the holidays and the start of January with perhaps another cold shot / snow potential near New Years.

The original forecast for a "decent New England snowstorm 12/20-23" still holds; although, I'd like to make a few adjustments. Baroclinic zone likely arrives 12/20-22, so the threat is more like 12/22-24. Also, it could manifest as another fast-moving coastal storm, possibly favoring the interior Mid-Atlantic and New England.

[bluewave]

The Euro keeps the pattern locked in through D10. So no sign of any pattern change in the models yet.

[TheTrials]

The Euro keeps the pattern locked in through D10. So no sign of any pattern change in the models yet.

+AO from hell, except its cold at the pole, not hot.

[bluewave]

+AO from hell, except its cold at the pole, not hot.

The negative EPO couldn't even close the deal on cold here with the raging +AO and the ridge in the East.

[TheTrials]

The negative EPO couldn't even close the deal on cold here with the raging +AO and the ridge in the East.

if the heights were further north towards the pole, maybe we could get in the game like 94, but that is not where that is setting up obviously. That epo, while technically negative, is just too far south.

[ag3]

Lows:

NYC- 29

LGA- 31

JFK- 28

EWR- 27

ISP- 22

BDR- 23

[TheTrials]

Lows:

NYC- 29

LGA- 31

JFK- 28

EWR- 27

ISP- 22

BDR- 23

that would be pretty good, for nov 15th, lol.

[bluewave]

if the heights were further north towards the pole, maybe we could get in the game like 94, but that is not where that is setting up obviously. That epo, while technically negative, is just too far south.

We would probably need the ridge east of the Caspian to poke up across the pole and maybe begin some

blocking after the new year but that vortex is really staying put so far.

[SnowGoose69]

We would probably need the ridge east of the Caspian to poke up across the pole and maybe begin some

blocking after the new year but that vortex is really staying put so far.

Thats always a risk with a -EPO/+AO and NAO, you don't know if you're really going to get that cold air into the U.S. because the PV can be in a bad spot, you generally know it will be in central-eastern Canada with a -EPO but you don't know if that means over James Bay or Nunavut.

[bluewave]

Thats always a risk with a -EPO/+AO and NAO, you don't know if you're really going to get that cold air into the U.S. because the PV can be in a bad spot, you generally know it will be in central-eastern Canada with a -EPO but you don't know if that means over James Bay or Nunavut.

I like to see some help from the Atlantic side for a colder temperatures to set in during Pacific blocking patterns when the

ridge doesn't extend up further north like December 1988. That December had some blocking over Western Europe.

[Weathergun]

This was the difference between the -EPO ridge last week and -EPO ridge Jan 1994. I understood DT was trying to make a point that you didn't need a +NAO to sustain cold air. But it was a shame he posted a map that didn't show what the AO region was like too. It looks like there was already block near the north pole, when the -EPO/+PNA set in:

[TheTrials]

This was the difference between the -EPO ridge last week and -EPO ridge Jan 1994. I understood DT was trying to make a point that you didn't need a +NAO to sustain cold air. But it was a shame he posted a map that didn't show what the AO region was like too. It looks like there was already block near the north pole, when the -EPO/+PNA set in:

Not really a +AO, just a very poleward oriented -epo. Really need that move centered over the pole to count as a -AO. The higher heights def. bleed into the pole so it may make the AO negative on the index charts.