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Winter 2011-2012 Kickoff Thread | December 2011


earthlight

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thats strange that mike masco is calling for a big change, when im pretty sure his winter outlook is calling for a pretty much warm and snowless winter?

Yes but he's still a good meteorologist. Mike Masco and other mets think the week of or after Christmas will feature a big change.

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For those touting the ECM here is day 7 verification...

Last nights ECM ensemble prediction control center run:

Let me tell everyone what the 00z ECM ensemble control prediction center was showing from last night. Keep this in mind when looking at today's 12 Z run. At 210 hrs there was a low over SNJ coast line .. Temperatures are 30-35 across the region..216 hrs the low is over CAPE cod with temperatures in the 25-35 range..Operational run last night was still in TX at 216 hrs..Moral of the story is potential of a ECM classic bias of holding energy back!

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Maybe Steve d was right he did say around Christmas

I think he's been saying mid-December. But it would just be a delay in his ideas.

DT also said the same thing that you just posted. Great minds think alike.sled.gif

I just saw his post, after you mentioned it. He talked about the GGEM ensembles showing this too.

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For those touting the ECM here is day 7 verification...

Last nights ECM ensemble prediction control center run:

I'm pretty sure you just cherry-picked a bad forecast valid two days ago. The forecast valid today was quite a bit better:

post-378-0-76803500-1323548919.gif

Let me tell everyone what the 00z ECM ensemble control prediction center was showing from last night. Keep this in mind when looking at today's 12 Z run. At 210 hrs there was a low over SNJ coast line .. Temperatures are 30-35 across the region..216 hrs the low is over CAPE cod with temperatures in the 25-35 range..Operational run last night was still in TX at 216 hrs..Moral of the story is potential of a ECM classic bias of holding energy back!

Where do you get the control run of the EC ensemble?

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I'm pretty sure you just cherry-picked a bad forecast valid two days ago. The forecast valid today was quite a bit better:

post-378-0-76803500-1323548919.gif

Where do you get the control run of the EC ensemble?

Actually the image was posted by rainshadow (Pro Met) in the medium range thread in the Philadelphia region...talking about how the ECM has not been performing all that well and the ECM control run comes with Accu Weather Pro subscription...

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I think he's been saying mid-December. But it would just be a delay in his ideas.

I just saw his post, after you mentioned it. He talked about the GGEM ensembles showing this too.

Yeah he said 15 then 18-Christmas time, thanks for showing us your point to! You think it could really change in the time frame you mention?

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He's definitely kidding...unless you wanted to clear the air for those who weren't sure...

Kidding about what?

ECM OP shows a HUGE pig ridge!

ECM means does not show a HUGE pig ridge ..

It shows a flatter ridge which is more in line with the rest of the ensemble guidance....

It shows a gradient pattern..versus a PIG RIDGE

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ens are smoothed a bit with less resolution, its still there.

ECM ensembles are higher resolution then the GFS ensembles...

Yes they are smoothed down but you are trying to say they show the same PIG ridge that the OP does?

I will have to disagree..I never said that the ridge was NOT there i said it is a FLATTER ridge ...a GRADIENT pattern...

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Kidding about what?

ECM OP shows a HUGE pig ridge!

ECM means does not show a HUGE pig ridge ..

It shows a flatter ridge which is more in line with the rest of the ensemble guidance....

It shows a gradient pattern..versus a PIG RIDGE

The ensemble mean, unlike the OP run, doesn't show a strong low pressure near the Great Lakes, and considering that it's 240 hours out, which is smoother on the mean due to the different solutions of each individual member, I wouldn't expect it to show a SE ridge as strong as the OP run. Perhaps the OP run is overestimating the ridge, but this far out, the ensembles would tend to show a flatter ridge considering their time range.

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FYI, everyone should be watching Wed AM closely, its not the best chance but there is a shot at some snow, the 12Z GFS does indicate some overrunning precip sneaking in as the high is a bit stubborn to move out...note too how the last 2 days the models have been more and more trending towards keeping temps colder Wednesday.

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In JB's latest video, he sees the cold and snowy weather coming back to the east near the holidays.

Which holiday would that be? The federal government recognizes ten of them, I think...

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ECM ensembles are higher resolution then the GFS ensembles...

Yes they are smoothed down but you are trying to say they show the same PIG ridge that the OP does?

I will have to disagree..I never said that the ridge was NOT there i said it is a FLATTER ridge ...a GRADIENT pattern...

It would be rare for them to show something as extreme as any OPERATIONAL run does, it happens but not that often. Not really sure what your point is? I think its pretty safe to say the storm cuts west of us, and I want it to cut way west, it will help the pattern towards xmas, which by the way may end working out for some. Moving along into the end of December and into Jan looks much better IMHO, later next week until around the 20th will be pretty warm, perhaps record breaking warmth. I think the potential is there for a white xmas, especially in the favored areas, especially in a gradient pattern with a robust se ridge.

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It would be rare for them to show something as extreme as any OPERATIONAL run does, it happens but not that often. Not really sure what your point is? I think its pretty safe to say the storm cuts west of us, and I want it to cut way west, it will help the pattern towards xmas, which by the way may end working out for some. Moving along into the end of December and into Jan looks much better IMHO, later next week until around the 20th will be pretty warm, perhaps record breaking warmth. I think the potential is there for a white xmas, especially in the favored areas, especially in a gradient pattern with a robust se ridge.

great post

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