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Winter 2011-2012 Kickoff Thread | December 2011


earthlight

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But Steve D said.....

Lol

Just played 18. Beautiful out. Cold under performing.

Well the area is around 40 so I think it's slightly below expected levels. Plus they have 20s back in the forecast for the city and only 30s for highs tomorrow.

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New York City, Central Park

Lat: 40.78 Lon: -73.97 Elev: 144

Last Update on Dec 10, 12:51 pm EST

Mostly Cloudy

40 °F

(4 °C)

Looks like its about 5 degrees below normal high and about 4 degrees short of the forecasted high...

Nope. NYC and LGA were above average today. Slightly.

NYC hit 46 and LGA hit 47.

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Beautiful out. Cold under performing.

I disagree with this statement. The temperatures were modeled to get into the lower to mid 40s throughout the reigion today per yesterday's 18z NAM.

post-3451-0-55942700-1323542406.png

Wheras OBS show us very close to the modeled temperatuer yesterday, with the 40 Degree contor in about the same spot as the 18z NAM had it.

post-3451-0-18684800-1323542483.png

Of course if you like cold weather, it certainly is beautiful out there... but with a temp of 42 degrees and a NW wind making it feel in the mid to upper 30s, few non-cold lovers would consider this to be "beautiful" weather.

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I disagree with this statement. The temperatures were modeled to get into the lower to mid 40s throughout the reigion today per yesterday's 18z NAM.

Of course if you like cold weather, it certainly is beautiful out there... but with a temp of 42 degrees and a NW wind making it feel in the mid to upper 30s, few non-cold lovers would consider this to be "beautiful" weather.

I was joking.

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12Z Euro does not surprise me at all, I had been saying 10-14 days ago I expected a massive blow torch around mid-month or slightly later before it cooled down again, the thing is the first 10 days have been much warmer than I ever anticipated.

If its not gonna snow lets have 70 and sun 40 and clouds sucks

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12Z Euro does not surprise me at all, I had been saying 10-14 days ago I expected a massive blow torch around mid-month or slightly later before it cooled down again, the thing is the first 10 days have been much warmer than I ever anticipated.

Damn, I had my hopes set on the perfect northeast snow storm pattern that DT promised us mid month. LOL.

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12Z Euro does not surprise me at all, I had been saying 10-14 days ago I expected a massive blow torch around mid-month or slightly later before it cooled down again, the thing is the first 10 days have been much warmer than I ever anticipated.

I read somewhere on this forum that HM thinks that the pattern will fully change in January.

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I read somewhere on this forum that HM thinks that the pattern will fully change in January.

HM and I have generally been thinking the same thing the last 4-6 weeks. I don't disagree there will be a shift in January with a period of colder conditions but I think we're talking a January 1999 or January 2000 type deal where by February its bang back into the blowtorch again, I would be amazed if we do a complete 180 and the rest of the winter stays cold but I could be wrong.

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HM and I have generally been thinking the same thing the last 4-6 weeks. I don't disagree there will be a shift in January with a period of colder conditions but I think we're talking a January 1999 or January 2000 type deal where by February its bang back into the blowtorch again, I would be amazed if we do a complete 180 and the rest of the winter stays cold but I could be wrong.

I think we get two good months goose, not just january

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The GFS and ECMWF are starting show some changes to the stratospheric vortex, the week before Christmas. If trends continue, we should start seeing some big changes, affect us, sometime during the 12/25 - 1/5 period. We'll probably torch again before that. With the warm anomalies moving over the Aleutians first:

http://www.cpc.ncep....t70_nh_f240.gif

http://wekuw.met.fu-...ast=all&lng=eng

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I disagree with this statement. The temperatures were modeled to get into the lower to mid 40s throughout the reigion today per yesterday's 18z NAM.

post-3451-0-55942700-1323542406.png

Wheras OBS show us very close to the modeled temperatuer yesterday, with the 40 Degree contor in about the same spot as the 18z NAM had it.

post-3451-0-18684800-1323542483.png

Of course if you like cold weather, it certainly is beautiful out there... but with a temp of 42 degrees and a NW wind making it feel in the mid to upper 30s, few non-cold lovers would consider this to be "beautiful" weather.

It was a joke

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The GFS and ECMWF are starting show some changes to the stratospheric vortex, the week before Christmas. If trends continue, we should start seeing some big changes, affect us, sometime during the 12/25 - 1/5 period. We'll probably torch again before that. With the warm anomalies moving over the Aleutians first:

http://www.cpc.ncep....t70_nh_f240.gif

http://wekuw.met.fu-...ast=all&lng=eng

Maybe Steve d was right he did say around Christmas

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The GFS and ECMWF are starting show some changes to the stratospheric vortex, the week before Christmas. If trends continue, we should start seeing some big changes, affect us, sometime during the 12/25 - 1/5 period. We'll probably torch again before that. With the warm anomalies moving over the Aleutians first:

http://www.cpc.ncep....t70_nh_f240.gif

http://wekuw.met.fu-...ast=all&lng=eng

DT also said the same thing that you just posted. Great minds think alike.sled.gif

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