MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 12z gfs ensembles are colder than the op with next weeks storm. Interesting. Strong signal for a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 This pattern only supports lakes cutters and/or warm swfevents. We need to get through the next 10-15 days and hope it improves drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Certain people seem to think he's a fraud and that he doesn't have original ideas but instead gets them from other sources and tries to pass them off as his own. I love how everyone is so quick to dismiss Steve D like he is just an amateur forecaster. His 20 min video isn't him just saying "We're changing to cold and snowy pattern" he gives a good amount of info including the QBO on how he think we're going to get colder. I just don't understand how everyone writes him off immediately. His forecast is as good as any other pro mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 How can anyone take him seriously when just yesterday he posted an alert talking about the potential for a major storm around the 19th? Now all of a sudden its a quiet, blah pattern? What will tomorrow bring? DT http://www.wxrisk.co...emely-positive/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 12z gfs ensembles are colder than the op with next weeks storm. Interesting. Strong signal for a storm The low resolution on the members causes them to underamplify shortwaves, especially past day 5, which causes the long range to always look too cold. Their resolution wont allow them to amplify shortwaves which would cause a se ridge to form and flood us with a southwesterly warm flow. You shouldnt use the gefs to establish the position of a 5+ day storm or ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 This pattern only supports lakes cutters and/or warm swfevents. We need to get through the next 10-15 days and hope it improves drastically. At least the CMC and Euro seem to pull the front through after the cutter. I understand other opinions and that the pattern needs to change. But some respected voices think it can change in Dec. If not, we'll have to be patient. Even a mild winter wouldn't feel as bad after the last 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 This was the 00z ECM last night for 240 hours. As you can see it was not by any means "warm " unless you call teens and 20s warm and the storm was held back over TX... Green is the storms moisture while the blue is the temps which are confined for purposes to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 How can anyone take him seriously when just yesterday he posted an alert talking about the potential for a major storm around the 19th? Now all of a sudden its a quiet, blah pattern? What will tomorrow bring? BINGO!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 At least the CMC and Euro seem to pull the front through after the cutter. I understand other opinions and that the pattern needs to change. But some respected voices think it can change in Dec. If not, we'll have to be patient. Even a mild winter wouldn't feel as bad after the last 2 winters. They are voices, i agree, respected? in most circles, no. But hey, if they are right, its the best of both worlds. It snows, and you run rub busts in my face and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Like the GFS, the Euro builds the massive SE ridge as well at the end of the run. This is the mid-month "torch" several people were talking about. It fits given everything we are seeing in MJO, NAO, AO etc. Although by no means will we be pushing 70 like we were in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Like the GFS, the Euro builds the massive SE ridge as well at the end of the run. This is the mid-month torch several people were talking about. It fits given everything we are seeing in MJO, NAO, AO etc. also at the end of the run, the NAO could not be in worse shape. More positive than ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 This was the 00z ECM last night for 240 hours. As you can see it was not by any means "warm " unless you call teens and 20s warm and the storm was held back over TX... Green is the storms moisture while the blue is the temps which are confined for purposes to the NE granted.. the Euro does show a good shot of cold air near the end of it's run.... much like today's 12Z run also shows it, but these shots of cold air are so progressive. The euro is forecasting a massive ridge across the southeast.. any storm over the south-central would most certainly cut the lakes in that type of set-up. It actually goes from bad to an absolutely horrible set-up. The lowest heights look like they are going to park themselves right over Greenland at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 also at the end of the run, the NAO could not be in worse shape. More positive than ever. If we had a block the ridge would be subdued, but alas, we have the opposite. It's gonna be a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 granted.. the Euro does show a good shot of cold air near the end of it's run.... much like today's 12Z run also shows it, but these shots of cold air are so progressive. The euro is forecasting a massive ridge across the southeast.. any storm over the south-central would most certainly cut the lakes in that type of set-up. It actually goes from bad to an absolutely horrible set-up. The lowest heights look like they are going to park themselves right over Greenland at that point. the temps are colder but the 500mb pattern says bye bye cold. This is why ice would come into play as the cold air retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 12z euro is more of the same. 2 day cold shots, followed by monster se ridges and lakes cutters. The day 8-10 setup is screaming for a big lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 MJO not offering any help....goes right back into stage 4 after the COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 the temps are colder but the 500mb pattern says bye bye cold. This is why ice would come into play as the cold air retreats. Every week it's delayed and delayed these forums are gonna be even uglier as days and weeks go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 12z euro is more of the same. 2 day cold shots, followed by monster se ridges and lakes cutters. The day 8-10 setup is screaming for a big lakes cutter. Wow, that SE/Gulf ridge just absolutely refuses to move even an inch after 120 hrs. Any storm in that setup would blowtorch and be a mild rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I must be blind but the Euro does not look bad until hour 240. The system next week gets sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I must be blind but the Euro does not look bad until hour 240. The system next week gets sheared out. http://www.facebook.com/ParkSlopeEye?sk=app_6009294086 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 MJO not offering any help....goes right back into stage 4 after the COD John and I were worried about this. This guarantees we are screwed for at least 3 more weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 http://www.facebook.com/ParkSlopeEye?sk=app_6009294086 !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 the temps are colder but the 500mb pattern says bye bye cold. This is why ice would come into play as the cold air retreats. yep, exactly.. there is absolutely no way to sustain a cold airmass in that type of pattern which is forecasted by the Euro. Any troughing over the east is extremely brief, and by no means is penetrating south whatsoever... and if that ridge right off the Pacific coast builds in that particular area that it is.. forget about it.. it will only serve to amplify the trough in the west, which will in turn build the ridge in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 John and I were worried about this. This guarantees we are screwed for at least 3 more weeks. What do the Euro ensembles show for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 John and I were worried about this. This guarantees we are screwed for at least 3 more weeks. I've been concerned about this since Nov. 15: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 What do the Euro ensembles show for this? that is an MJO forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 yep, exactly.. there is absolutely no way to sustain a cold airmass in that type of pattern which is forecasted by the Euro. Any troughing over the east is extremely brief, and by no means is penetrating south whatsoever... and if that ridge right off the Pacific coast builds in that particular area that it is.. forget about it.. it will only serve to amplify the trough in the west, which will in turn build the ridge in the southeast. So do you think we'll have a 2001-2002 or 2007-2008 style non-winter/blowtorch or will it be slightly better or even god forbid worse? (widespread 60s and 70s in January and February? Flowers blooming in January. If this winter is truly going to suck, then might as well break records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 it wouldnt be so bad to have a great back end to winter, finally..even if dec/jan suck. a feb-mar 5/6 week period would be ok with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I wouldn't mind that either though I'd rather mid Jan to mid Feb. I hate the late feb/march sun angle issues especially when its light until 7:00 starting in early March now it wouldnt be so bad to have a great back end to winter, finally..even if dec/jan suck. a feb-mar 5/6 week period would be ok with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 that is an MJO forecast. Euro ensembles http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif Euro weeklies http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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