Winter 2011-2012 Kickoff Thread | December 2011

[FPizz]

Nice post atown. It is almost exactly what DT said on his facebook page.

[TheTrials]

I am going to use this image from the 12 Z GFS as a starting point for this. We continue to stand on the next storm potential being in the time frame of the 15th to the 20th. As is the case usually with the GFS ..the model tends to be to progressive and aggressive with its arctic cold air shots. However..this time around there is some indication that there could be a potential Significant East Coast Winter Storm around the 19th to the 20th. The GFS has support from the 12 Z Operational ECM (which in my eyes is the MORE important factor) . When looking at the 12 Z operational ECM 500 mb chart you see that it has a major low pressure area over SE Canada which would be what is called a 50/50 low. This is a classic signiture for a East Coast snow storm. However..if the 50/50 low is not there then this potential would not be realized...and yes i realize this is the long range ..

We started discussing this already back in the first few days of December based on a strong signal from the GFS means.

LOL, this is NOT the classic signature for an East Coast Storm, not even close. And that isn't a 50/50 low, unless someone moved were 50 LAT/LONG is.

And if you want to take anything from this map, and that is a little silly since the 240 euro really isn't any better than any model at 240 which is an eternity away, its that the SE ridge lives and this looks like a nice ice scenario.

[SnowGoose69]

Given the current pattern a lakes cutter is not surprising, but we'll watch it. The GFS does look promising after that.

That event is really more a shearing out SW flow disturbance than a Lakes Cutter. The Euro is a bit stronger with the system in the SW and S Plains but also shear the wave out as it comes into the NE region. That event would have potential to be a snow event if there was a fresher cold air mass in place before it arrived. Its a similar type setup to 1/6/89, but there is simply nowhere near as much cold air in the NE U.S. before the event arrives. Note the similarities to the 500mb setup on 1/5/89 in the west and central U.S. compared to the 12Z GFS at 160 hours or so, but at the same time note the differences in the air mass in the NE.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us0105.php

[TheTrials]

In other news, this sucks. Nina continues to strengthen and expand and we lost the warm waters off the PAC and the waters around greenland do not support blocking that we saw the last two years

[atownwxwatcher]

LOL, this is NOT the classic signature for an East Coast Storm, not even close. And that isn't a 50/50 low, unless someone moved were 50 LAT/LONG is.

And if you want to take anything from this map, and that is a little silly since the 240 euro really isn't any better than any model at 240 which is an eternity away, its that the SE ridge lives and this looks like a nice ice scenario.

You can continue to ride down the road that you have been riding and it has no effect what ever on me. Just so happens that Dave Tolleris agrees with me as well . We both came out with the post at the same time ...

Wxrisk.com also not the 12z euro has major 500 MB Low over se Canada -- a "50/50 Low" which is a classic east coast snowstorm pattern indicator. THAT feature is the key... if there is No 50/50 Low this remote possibility wont happen

So lets see...4dvar or the trials over a Pro Met with a degree ...tough choice...

[TheTrials]

You can continue to ride down the road that you have been riding and it has no effect what ever on me. Just so happens that Dave Tolleris agrees with me as well . We both came out with the post at the same time ...

Wxrisk.com also not the 12z euro has major 500 MB Low over se Canada -- a "50/50 Low" which is a classic east coast snowstorm pattern indicator. THAT feature is the key... if there is No 50/50 Low this remote possibility wont happen

So lets see...4dvar or the trials over a Pro Met with a degree ...tough choice...

you're both entitled to your wrong opinion.

[Alpha5]

LOL, this is NOT the classic signature for an East Coast Storm, not even close. And that isn't a 50/50 low, unless someone moved were 50 LAT/LONG is.

And if you want to take anything from this map, and that is a little silly since the 240 euro really isn't any better than any model at 240 which is an eternity away, its that the SE ridge lives and this looks like a nice ice scenario.

To be fair, the 50/50 does not have to be EXACTLY at 50/50, it just has to be somewhere in SE canada where it can draw some confluence over Ontario and prevent stroms from cutting inland. That being said, the 50/50 is a bit displaced, but it doesnt really matter because there is no real trough over the east....besides its hr 240

[psv88]

You can continue to ride down the road that you have been riding and it has no effect what ever on me. Just so happens that Dave Tolleris agrees with me as well . We both came out with the post at the same time ...

Wxrisk.com also not the 12z euro has major 500 MB Low over se Canada -- a "50/50 Low" which is a classic east coast snowstorm pattern indicator. THAT feature is the key... if there is No 50/50 Low this remote possibility wont happen

So lets see...4dvar or the trials over a Pro Met with a degree ...tough choice...

pretty sure Steve D, JB, etc called for 3-6, called for snow till 6 am, etc, when Trials, etc, called for little to no snow...Trials and others posts combatting the senseless weenieness on the board keeps the board in check

Plenty of lawyers have law degrees and are still full of sh*t...degree means squat.

[TheTrials]

To be fair, the 50/50 does not have to be EXACTLY at 50/50, it just has to be somewhere in SE canada where it can draw some confluence over Ontario and prevent stroms from cutting inland. That being said, the 50/50 is a bit displaced, but it doesnt really matter because there is no real trough over the east....besides its hr 240

a little displaced? its sitting directly under greenland, that isn't SE canada.

Put the 50/50, that setup sucks for east coast snow.

[Alpha5]

a little displaced? its sitting directly under greenland, that isn't SE canada.

Put the 50/50, that setup sucks for east coast snow.

Not the surface low, the ULL.....its between 50/50 and Greenland, so yes, displaced to the north.

It wont do that much with the rest of the pattern being what it was. IF we had other things going for us, a slightly displaced 50/50 would certainly help

[atownwxwatcher]

Nice post atown. It is almost exactly what DT said on his facebook page.

Yeah we came out with it about the same time frame because i had just got done looking at the accu pro maps and was like "this is what i wanted to see"

Back on November 30th I had seen this

And obviously timing is going to change but I thought that was a pretty strong signal on the means...

So i started talking about it then already and also referenced how the LRC was showing a mid month storm as well..

"Granted this is way out in the long range but it goes along with what i seen posted earlier on the internet which said this "Tony Pann from WBALTV in Baltimore-

OK...so according to our guest on Weather Talk tonight, from WISN in Milwaukee, their new long range forecasting technique...the LRC...is calling for another big snowstorm, like the one in October, sometime in the second or third week in Dec here in the Mid Atlantic. Only this time, the focus for the heavy snow will be a little further south...in other words...around Baltimore! We’ll see!

Now i have no clue who their guest was but as i mentioned above that is a pretty strong signal on the means...

· 30 November

So needless to say I do find the time period becoming somewhat intriguing..

[TheTrials]

Not the surface low, the ULL.....its between 50/50 and Greenland, so yes, displaced to the north.

It wont do that much with the rest of the pattern being what it was. IF we had other things going for us, a slightly displaced 50/50 would certainly help

all I see at 240 is the SE ridge getting ready to ruin any chance we have at a true east coast snow storm.

If you want to talk about east coast storm I.E rain, ice, yeah, sure, you have energy ejecting from the SW, a storm will come out of that, but in terms of east coast SNOW storms for anyone south of NNE, forget about it, it's not from that map.

Anyway, I digress, analysis of a 240 hour map is silly.

[atownwxwatcher]

all I see at 240 is the SE ridge getting ready to ruin any chance we have at a true east coast snow storm.

If you want to talk about east coast storm I.E rain, ice, yeah, sure, you have energy ejecting from the SW, a storm will come out of that, but in terms of east coast SNOW storms for anyone south of NNE, forget about it, it's not from that map.

Anyway, I digress, analysis of a 240 hour map is silly.

You are acting as if this board has never tracked a long range storm...

And where is the SE ridge at 240 hours ..Temperatures on the ECM are in the 30s all the way into tennessee..

If you compare that to last nights 00z Day 10 means map even though its 12 hrs apart it actually is colder then last nights day 10...

Doom and gloom scenarios seems to be your best....

[TheTrials]

You are acting as if this board has never tracked a long range storm...

And where is the SE ridge at 240 hours ..Temperatures on the ECM are in the 30s all the way into tennessee..

If you compare that to last nights 00z Day 10 means map even though its 12 hrs apart it actually is colder then last nights day 10...

Doom and gloom scenarios seems to be your best....

that isn't the OP, that is the ensembles. I am talking about the OP and the OP map I posted clearly shows the ridge sitting over Cuba waiting.

[Strongbad]

pretty sure Steve D, JB, etc called for 3-6, called for snow till 6 am, etc, when Trials, etc, called for little to no snow...Trials and others posts combatting the senseless weenieness on the board keeps the board in check

Plenty of lawyers have law degrees and are still full of sh*t...degree means squat.

This is better left for the banter thread? The whole post in fact.

I can post plenty of errors Trials made before the November pattern change he was dead set on. This isn't to pick out anyone, just to stop any brown nosing towards one poster for getting a call right.

The winter is still early and crying about the pattern now is useless in the long run. This last part isn't meant for you psv, but everyone. I will be intrigued to see if what is happening in the QBO will have an effect on the mid-late winter blocking signature.

[Momza]

pretty sure Steve D, JB, etc called for 3-6, called for snow till 6 am, etc, when Trials, etc, called for little to no snow...Trials and others posts combatting the senseless weenieness on the board keeps the board in check

Plenty of lawyers have law degrees and are still full of sh*t...degree means squat.

His post was meant not to hype mets, but to argue his interpretation of the long range guidance.

[mattinpa]

I am going to use this image from the 12 Z GFS as a starting point for this. We continue to stand on the next storm potential being in the time frame of the 15th to the 20th. As is the case usually with the GFS ..the model tends to be to progressive and aggressive with its arctic cold air shots. However..this time around there is some indication that there could be a potential Significant East Coast Winter Storm around the 19th to the 20th. The GFS has support from the 12 Z Operational ECM (which in my eyes is the MORE important factor) . When looking at the 12 Z operational ECM 500 mb chart you see that it has a major low pressure area over SE Canada which would be what is called a 50/50 low. This is a classic signiture for a East Coast snow storm. However..if the 50/50 low is not there then this potential would not be realized...and yes i realize this is the long range ..

We started discussing this already back in the first few days of December based on a strong signal from the GFS means.

Well, I for one appreciate your analysis. You have your opinion, other posters have theirs - and only mother nature knows for sure what happens.

[atownwxwatcher]

that isn't the OP, that is the ensembles. I am talking about the OP and the OP map I posted clearly shows the ridge sitting over Cuba waiting.

Did I say it was the OP? I could have swore i said it was the means...yep I did...

And the temperatures i gave were from the ECM OP...

[TheTrials]

Did I say it was the OP? I could have swore i said it was the means...yep I did...

And the temperatures i gave were from the ECM OP...

why would you post the ensembles to prove your point about your post which referenced the OP euro at 240 and my post which actually posted the OP euro at 240.

Compare apples to apples.

[TheTrials]

I am going to use this image from the 12 Z GFS as a starting point for this. We continue to stand on the next storm potential being in the time frame of the 15th to the 20th. As is the case usually with the GFS ..the model tends to be to progressive and aggressive with its arctic cold air shots. However..this time around there is some indication that there could be a potential Significant East Coast Winter Storm around the 19th to the 20th. The GFS has support from the 12 Z Operational ECM (which in my eyes is the MORE important factor) . When looking at the 12 Z operational ECM 500 mb chart you see that it has a major low pressure area over SE Canada which would be what is called a 50/50 low. This is a classic signiture for a East Coast snow storm. However..if the 50/50 low is not there then this potential would not be realized...and yes i realize this is the long range ..

We started discussing this already back in the first few days of December based on a strong signal from the GFS means.

[WeatherNC]

OK, how about elaborating on the bolded text above and how you disagree. Understand that you have done that, but maybe further, and simply quoting his with some bold action, seroius... Hell, I like the look after day 10, major indices having inflection points, granted the UL setup looks like crap and is likely to trend warmer, but the period between the 16th & 20th has my attention. OP was off base with the 50/50, in that the low should be around or just NE of the Bay of Fundy, and >20mb deeper. Also note the lack of a strong HP crashing down on the backside. However, you are kind of off base with regards to biting on a 240hr op EC panel when the ens mean smoothes out differences given the t-step, and has a better chance of verification. Sure it is fantasy range, but this is a Kickoff to winter thread; right?

[atownwxwatcher]

why would you post the ensembles to prove your point about your post which referenced the OP euro at 240 and my post which actually posted the OP euro at 240.

Compare apples to apples.

Is this really that difficult to understand?

The operational run at 240 hours is showing temperatures into the Tennessee area in the 30s

Chose to do it this way because i can not post the images from Accu Pro ..

Now if this is what the operational ECM is showing (which it is temp profile) and the ECM means are colder in the 850 mb department ..I believe it is very much something to reference to .

You are making an argument based on a southeast ridge but the operational model shows that SE Ridge getting crushed out and the ECM ensemble means show it even more so then the operational run...

You also do realize that in some aspects you need a SE ridge in place because if there was not a SE ridge in place then the storm could just slide off the SE coast and not effect the Mid Atlantic into the NE..Unless of course you have a + PNA - NAO - AO in place with a trough that would dig down into the GOM and ride up along the coast ..(The Jet Stream)

You can see that this is certainly not a "warm look" on the ECM ...and the very first post said "yes i know this is long range"

[TheTrials]

OK, how about elaborating on the bolded text above and how you disagree. Understand that you have done that, but maybe further, and simply quoting his with some bold action, seroius... Hell, I look the look after day 10, major indices having inflection points, granted the UL setup looks like crap and is likely to trend warmer, but the period between the 16th & 20th has my attention. OP was off base with the 50/50, in that the low should be around or just NE of the Bay of Fundy, and >20mb deeper. Also note the lack of a strong HP crashing down on the backside. However, you are kind of off base with regards to biting on a 240hr op EC panel when the ens mean smoothes out differences given the t-step, and has a better chance of verification. Sure it is fantasy range, but this is a Kickoff to winter thread; right?

I bolded it because I posted the operational run, talked about it, and then he posts an ensemble run and says he never posted about the op and uses it to counter point my points on the OP. As you point out, the ensemble is a smooth mean and it isn't fair to compare one to the other. \

As to the rest of the pattern, nothing has changed. We have a ridiculously positive AO and negative NAO. You can see at 240 that the trough over the east is already trying to lift out and will be replaced by heigher heights. If they split flow stays, what we are likely going to see if shallow rotiing cold air with and a pretty nasty ice signature, mostly for the interior, SNE, onto NE.

[WeatherNC]

I bolded it because I posted the operational run, talked about it, and then he posts an ensemble run and says he never posted about the op and uses it to counter point my points on the OP. As you point out, the ensemble is a smooth mean and it isn't fair to compare one to the other. \

As to the rest of the pattern, nothing has changed. We have a ridiculously positive AO and negative NAO. You can see at 240 that the trough over the east is already trying to lift out and will be replaced by heigher heights. If they split flow stays, what we are likely going to see if shallow rotiing cold air with and a pretty nasty ice signature, mostly for the interior, SNE, onto NE.

Great, then you should have stated that below... I read the last page, kind of a norm before I come over and stick my head into this. Not going to argue the AO and NAO, stated the UL looked like crap, implying the H5 and above setup, however, check out your indices (EPO aside), note the flip in this period. MJO going forward, maybe a worse case. Heading into the circle, split between a 180 into phase 7 after a couple weeks, compared to back again in phase 3 or 4. Nevertheless, any potential for pre-Christmas winter storm is likely bounded by the 16th and 20th of this month.

[MJO812]

Nice post atown. It is almost exactly what DT said on his facebook page.

DT just said that the 12z Euro ensemble mean looks good for a storm along the coast.

[atownwxwatcher]

And so we now see the 18 GFS operational showing this storm along the east coast..

Also as DT pointed out...in reference to the ensembles of the ECM

NOTIFICATION-- MODEL COMMENT ON DEC 18-19 *** POSSIBLE winter ***event ... the 12z euro ensemble is VERY strong on this. Quite frankly I was SURPRISED by this... Europe ensemble has fairly strong split flow on the west coast with the Northern Jet showing +PNA while Southern Jet has potent looking system

So at this point and time we have quite the strong signal...between the GFS & ECM Op and the GFS means and ECM means...

[MJO812]

Merry Christmas

[Hailstorm]

Can anyone post an updated GFS and Euro MJO forecast chart? Thanks.

[WeatherNC]

Can anyone post an updated GFS and Euro MJO forecast chart? Thanks.

Dumpster fire for everyone east of the MS...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

RDUWX's MJO stuff...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html

[Hailstorm]

Thanks, WeatherNC.

The only models showing hope for us are the Canadian Meteorology Centre Ensemble System and the Brazil Centre for Time and Climate Studies Ensemble System.

The Canadian shows the MJO re-emerging into Phase 5 out of the CoD around 12/22. The Brazilian has the MJO re-emerging out of the CoD around 12/18 into favorable Phase 1 for us.