Wes' latest CWG post about Dec snow: calls forecast pattern "snow lover's nightmare"

[Ian]

that is one beautiful map

[mappy]

that is one beautiful map

[Avdave]

Looks good like the wizards

At least you can look forward to them having a better season than we will here this winter

[Ian]

It's tough being the sane one in the room. We should do a cost benefit analysis on being a snow lover around here.

[Ji]

that is one beautiful map

I'm on board now...let it torch

[mappy]

I'm sane, Ian... I still dont like it though

[Ian]

I'm on board now...let it torch

Worst thing that happens is it settles in for the whole winter. More likely we just don't have to spend the period caring much. Last winter was a waste of time more than anything.

[ThreeRedheads]

I hope it does not snow again all winter.

Reverse psychology?

Thanks for the write up, Wes. Another write up to bookmark.

[Deck Pic]

Maybe Wes's best work to date....I linked it on facebook, but my friends were probably too distraught to comment

We'll have something to track by mid month probably, but it may just be a cartopper...It is good to see nobody is biting on next week's event....I was looking back at decent Nina events and pretty much all had at least one of the following features....Ridge in the Western US/Canada, -NAO, a PV to our northeast

[usedtobe]

Maybe Wes's best work to date....I linked it on facebook, but my friends were probably too distraught to comment

We'll have something to track by mid month probably, but it may just be a cartopper...It is good to see nobody is biting on next week's event....I was looking back at decent Nina events and pretty much all had at least one of the following features....Ridge in the Western US/Canada, -NAO, a PV to our northeast

Steve Tracton disagrees with idea that I or anyone can make a call about the latter half of December and he could be right. He's going to write a counter piece early next week on the CWG about how the circulation pattern can change rapidly and that the A) is not predictable. Certainly late in the month there are better chances than early. My reasoning for extending is based on the Baldwin.

http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/pubs/SolarCycleStrat_TropDynamicalCoupling.pdf

The 30 strong polar vortex events seem to have the same type of staying power than the super strong negative ones have. Oh well, it is a crap shoot.

[CoastalWx]

Steve Tracton disagrees with idea that I or anyone can make a call about the latter half of December and he could be right. He's going to write a counter piece early next week on the CWG about how the circulation pattern can change rapidly and that the A) is not predictable. Certainly late in the month there are better chances than early. My reasoning for extending is based on the Baldwin.

http://www.nwra.com/...calCoupling.pdf

The 30 strong polar vortex events seem to have the same type of staying power than the super strong negative ones have. Oh well, it is a crap shoot.

Wes there has been slow warming at 10mb and 50mb, but I think I side with you here. The AO seems very stable right now. Maybe the tail end of December could flip, but I have virtually no hope for bringing a -NAO back anytime soon. I do have some hope for January, but that's not a given either.

[Amped]

GFS is so strong with the WAR it actually developes a tropical cyclone in the central atlantic around 156 hrs.

[mattie g]

Worst thing that happens is it settles in for the whole winter. More likely we just don't have to spend the period caring much. Last winter was a waste of time more than anything.

That's exactly how I see it. It might boring not to have anything to track (or even expect), but it's also not the useless time-suck than tracking ghost events is.

[usedtobe]

That's exactly how I see it. It might boring not to have anything to track (or even expect), but it's also not the useless time-suck than tracking ghost events is.

Not for me, no storms to track means no articles to write. Readers don't like reading stuff that says it's not going to snow over and over again.

[usedtobe]

Wes there has been slow warming at 10mb and 50mb, but I think I side with you here. The AO seems very stable right now. Maybe the tail end of December could flip, but I have virtually no hope for bringing a -NAO back anytime soon. I do have some hope for January, but that's not a given either.

My reason is pretty simple and could be wrong but I look at the current polar temps and ao plot and compare it to the bladwin Dunkerton one shown in the article I posted earlier and it looks like we are just into a cold vortex type scenario.

Without a warming event, I don't see the ao switching quickly but I've been surprised before as I thought the beginning of March 2010 might still be cold and snowy. Ji will never forget that call.

[Ian]

Not for me, no storms to track means no articles to write. Readers don't like reading stuff that says it's not going to snow over and over again.

It'll be interesting to see how CWG does when we fall into a multi-year period of boring weather. It's bound to happen. We really lucked out in that dept since moving to the Post.

[usedtobe]

It'll be interesting to see how CWG does when we fall into a multi-year period of boring weather. It's bound to happen. We really lucked out in that dept since moving to the Post.

Me too, and americanwx also though the northeast probably would get enough snow to keep the forum lively at times even in bad years. Hopefully, we'll get some blocking later in the winter and or this dec if the models and my thoughts are bogus. I'd probably be willing to trade credibility for snow storms.

[CoastalWx]

My reason is pretty simple and could be wrong but I look at the current polar temps and ao plot and compare it to the bladwin Dunkerton one shown in the article I posted earlier and it looks like we are just into a cold vortex type scenario.

Without a warming event, I don't see the ao switching quickly but I've been surprised before as I thought the beginning of March 2010 might still be cold and snowy. Ji will never forget that call.

Agreed, and with that last graph...it shows you how it does not like to go away quickly.

[aldie 22]

It'll be interesting to see how CWG does when we fall into a multi-year period of boring weather. It's bound to happen. We really lucked out in that dept since moving to the Post.

I'm pretty sure we will still get wild swings in weather during the spring and summer....also if we remove 09-10 winter the last 6-7 winters have been pretty freaking boring.

[mappy]

Me too, and americanwx also though the northeast probably would get enough snow to keep the forum lively at times even in bad years. Hopefully, we'll get some blocking later in the winter and or this dec if the models and my thoughts are bogus. I'd probably be willing to trade credibility for snow storms.

I liked your credibility

I just hope we get one decent storm to track and enjoy. The Oct snow was a nice surprise, but something simliar to the Jan storm would be nice (without the power outages)

[BethesdaWX]

I'm surprised there hasn't been more excitement over the upcoming winters, 2013/14 and many others this decade should be da bomb of the QBO is negative, far from boring.

[mitchnick]

Agreed, and with that last graph...it shows you how it does not like to go away quickly.

and yesterday's 12Z run of the Euro for Day 10 doesn't have it getting/staying anything but cold

http://wekuw.met.fu-...0&var=t&lng=eng

in fact, if you look near the surface, it has it warming a bunch!

[marked8]

Bring the torch! I love having mosquitoes biting me on Christmas day, it give you that warm and fuzzy feeling.

[mattie g]

Not for me, no storms to track means no articles to write. Readers don't like reading stuff that says it's not going to snow over and over again.

Luckily, I don't have an adoring audience to satiate.

[Amped]

It'll be interesting to see how CWG does when we fall into a multi-year period of boring weather. It's bound to happen. We really lucked out in that dept since moving to the Post.

In other words if DC gets the #1 most boring winter of all time, “It's interesting how it could be so incredibly boring.” I think that phrase describes most days of my life.

[Jebman]

It's easy to see the pattern in place in N VA: We get chilly. Then return flow picks up - we warm up nicely, then rain, then another fropa then cold again as storms form on the nrn GoMex then track right up the Apps time and time again.

Classical La Nina pattern. No -AO pattern to save us like last winter

Rinse and repeat about 790 times between now and July 2012

[Jim_in_CA]

All I'm left with is the hope that we can time a transitory "cold" shot for Christmas. Honestly, there is nothing as depressing as mild air for Christmas. Nothing. I'd take a hundred 33F and rainy Christmases rather than one more 55F Christmas.

So true, so very true. That said, at this point, I'm even enjoying these 50s. At least 50s is cool and usually pretty chilly at night. At the rate we're going I'm worried about 60s for Christmas. We can't seem to stay out of the 60s lately for more than a few days. I had to run my AC a few days ago my condo warmed up so much. November was miserable.

I feel like I'm living in Houston again!

[usedtobe]

I still see little reasons to be excited with the pattern. last night's ensemble mean runs showed the ao staying positive through the run with index rising towards the end of the pd. That's tough to do when you mean out all the solutions. The usual error is to damp down any look to signal whether it be a positive or negative index. This year, it's a positive one.

[usedtobe]

Not surprising that last night's euro ensemble mean 10 is very positive out to 240 hours and at that time the pacific is looking nasty is the low heights over AK and high heights to the south of there verify.

[Yorkpa]

6z GFS looks real nice I believe!