RIC Airport Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Euro should be starting shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What kind of AP is going on with the NWS radar right now out of Wakefield.. Time sensitive.. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=akq&product=N0R&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What kind of AP is going on with the NWS radar right now out of Wakefield.. Time sensitive.. http://radar.weather...ct=N0R&loop=yes Known issue with DP, I'm afraid. We've been told it will be fixed with a subsequent build or software package...we'll manage until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Known issue with DP, I'm afraid. We've been told it will be fixed with a subsequent build or software package...we'll manage until then. Kean, your thoughts on the overnight runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Kean, your thoughts on the overnight runs? Honestly, I'm not too far off with what the midcrew was thinking. Despite column cooling ahead of the southern stream system, TOP-Down approach and soil temps say the metro is not going to accumulate much of anything prior to 4 or 5 sunday as the second northern stream wave drops through and really gets that dynamical cooling going. I'm heartened that we'll indeed have a shot at some convective banding as the main shortwave kicks across, but that's going to be a fairly localized process, with the EC still seemingly wanting to keep this south of the metro. Experience tells me the model depiction is often a bit farther south than it verifies, so I'd favor it northwest of town. Overall, I'd be looking for a fairly widespread light 1-3" wet snow event for the metro and southside va, with a stripe of 3-6+ From LYH to LKU, possibly as far south as FVK to OFP. Not a MECS by any stretch, but it's fun to finally get a storm worth tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Honestly, I'm not too far off with what the midcrew was thinking. Despite column cooling ahead of the southern stream system, TOP-Down approach and soil temps say the metro is not going to accumulate much of anything prior to 4 or 5 sunday as the second northern stream wave drops through and really gets that dynamical cooling going. I'm heartened that we'll indeed have a shot at some convective banding as the main shortwave kicks across, but that's going to be a fairly localized process, with the EC still seemingly wanting to keep this south of the metro. Experience tells me the model depiction is often a bit farther south than it verifies, so I'd favor it northwest of town. Overall, I'd be looking for a fairly widespread light 1-3" wet snow event for the metro and southside va, with a stripe of 3-6+ From LYH to LKU, possibly as far south as FVK to OFP. Not a MECS by any stretch, but it's fun to finally get a storm worth tracking! I'm a little higher than you, but that's basically what I wrote last night in Facebook chat... RIC >2" downtown RVA 2" Tuckahoe 4" Short Pump: 5" Louisa: 5" Someone south of louisa in goochland or powhatan is likely to see 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 http://weather.unisys.com/nam/misc/nam_cum_snow.gif clown map :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 So Euro puts 0.94 precip into Richmond with a surface temperature of 33 for the duration........... 850's are cold enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It'll be interesting to see what happens, I guess its time to wait and hope, DT seems optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 So Euro puts 0.94 precip into Richmond with a surface temperature of 33 for the duration........... 850's are cold enough though. With the sun going down, I think RIC should be safe. Back in December 2005, we got 4.4" from a storm with temps 33-34 the whole time and it happened the day after RIC hit 64 degrees. So, I think it'll be ok.....probably not 9", but at least half that....I put out last night 4.2" officially and I'm sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Totals IAD: .09 DCA: .17 CHO: .46 EZF: .43 RIC: .94 (surface temps around 33 the whole time, congrats) 12z Euro totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just for reference... Channel 12 has 2-3" N&W of the city and 1-2" S&E Channel 8 has 3-6" N&W of the city and 1-3" S&E Channel 6 has 1-3" for the metro area AKQ has 3" for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Still going with a lot or precip as rain... and or snow that does not accumulate till evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012 VAZ048-049-060>063-066>071-080-191100- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.120219T1700Z-120220T0900Z/ FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER- LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-DINWIDDIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISA...FARMVILLE...GOOCHLAND... ASHLAND...CREWE...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND 315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * AREAS AFFECTED: CENTRAL VIRGINIA * HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SLEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS COMING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && beautiful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM looks great and WSW is up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yea Nam is bonkers here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbscott126 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Woohoo. First WSW of the winter. Not excited just yet. Excited happens when I check the NWS site tomorrow morning and see the metro area covered in pink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 RGEM looking good for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 AKQ mets, Did you mean to forecast 4-8" for western Fluvanna or was this an oversight? Humbly yours, Dude at Lake Monticello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 AKQ mets, Did you mean to forecast 4-8" for western Fluvanna or was this an oversight? Humbly yours, Dude at Lake Monticello. It's only because I'm off this week...I'd have made sure you had a big ole Goose egg in point and click Still very nervous about the look to the soundings. I'm very suspicious about the snow totals away from what should be a fairly impressive Frontogenetic band that develops early tomorrow evening. We'll see how it plays out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It's only because I'm off this week...I'd have made sure you had a big ole Goose egg in point and click Still very nervous about the look to the soundings. I'm very suspicious about the snow totals away from what should be a fairly impressive Frontogenetic band that develops early tomorrow evening. We'll see how it plays out! What are you using for ratios? I remember storms like this in the past. It can snow for hours with only an inch or two. Wet, heavy, melting, base. I'm thinking 2-3" of concrete at most for almost everyone, but I'm a pessimist. Modeled QPF has really diminished in the last 24 hours. Is there a nugget of good news in some of the short range stuff you see? BTW, get them folks in Blacksburg to fix Roanoke's point and click. 2-4"?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 What are you using for ratios? I remember storms like this in the past. It can snow for hours with only an inch or two. Wet, heavy, melting, base. I'm thinking 2-3" of concrete at most for almost everyone, but I'm a pessimist. Modeled QPF has really diminished in the last 24 hours. Is there a nugget of good news in some of the short range stuff you see? BTW, get them folks in Blacksburg to fix Roanoke's point and click. 2-4"?? Not sure what they used since i'm out on leave..but it looks like a low SLR for much of the event, which is why my totals are lower than most. However, that quck moving band will be a much lighter snow, so it'd be a much more efficient producer. I did knock about a third of the EC QPF totals too...so we'll see how it goes. I think somebody between palmyra and Hampden sydney is gonna come down with 6+ as strongest forcing pushes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Been skiing all day so just catching up damn if Ric don't look to be in a sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Been skiing all day so just catching up damn if Ric don't look to be in a sweet spot Good luck midlo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 FWIW the NAM is even farther south a 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 That's the hour 24 panel... the next one isn't as bad... FWIW the NAM is even farther south a 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 That's the hour 24 panel... the next one isn't as bad... Looks like south and east of town do better and not much of a difference in the West End, but the farther west you go, like Goochland, looks worse. Edit: Weenie map comparison 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Midlo! We need some Comedy. GFS is coming in Ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Midlo! We need some Comedy. GFS is coming in Ugly! Ew (27-30 hrs is better) 24hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.