Kevin Druff Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 yea i saw some heading out this morning in those same higher spots. did you catch the locals? ch6 said maybe a storm and 47 ch8 said nothing about a storm and partly cloudy and 51 ch12 said pssible southern storm and maybe snow 37 Damn, they got every base covered. I think 12 feels the most heat from the web and folks like DT on the radio. 8 is just out to lunch often and 6 tries to say as much as possible without really offering any information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 akq is just not on board, surprised they are going with the gfs being it has flipped about every single run.they always play it safe and with our track history i can't blame them. the 0z euro had a nice +0.50" in 6 hour weenie map at hr. 138. atleast we have something to track. i can see just west of ric being the jackpot in this say from roa. cho to ezf. . LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WILL STICK CLS TO THE 12Z GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WILL NOT BITE ON THE LATEST (12Z) ECMWF SHOWING A SRN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENG. COLD FRNT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST THU NGT WITH HI PRES BLDNG IN FM THE W FOR FRI INTO THE FIRST PART OF SAT. LO PRES WILL MOVE FM THE GULF OF MEXICO ENE AND OFF THE SE CST SAT AFTN INTO SUN MORNG. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE MSTLY CLDY SKY...ESPLY OVR SRN HALF OF THE AREA. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM THE W FOR SUN AFTN THRU MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S FRI MORNG...IN THE 30S SAT AND SUN MORNGS...AND IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S FRI...AND GENERALLY IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...SUN...AND MON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Pretty funny the amount of poeple mentioning Richmond for this storm. Some sort of hex is being put on here. Not like were getting hyped about this yet. Burned way to many times at this range to start freaking out. Passive enthusiasm for the event in question maybe. But usual concerns are still present. Track... ammount of moisture.. and boundary layer issues. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 yea i saw some heading out this morning in those same higher spots. did you catch the locals? 2/13/12 ch6 said maybe a storm and 47 ch8 said nothing about a storm and partly cloudy and 51 ch12 said pssible southern storm and maybe snow 37 2/14/12 ch6 wintry storm possible hi 46 ch8 rain 51 ch 12 rain maybe to snow 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not bad...not bad. No idea what the temp profile is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 So who's up for rain? Think snow chances (even on some of the southern models) is starting to look slimmer and slimmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 if this event hits DC and leaves RIC out, I will be so pissed. Those people up there have had some great storms in recent years, and we always get the crappy leftovers. I just want more than a "trace" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 in nearly three decades of my awesome existence, I've never seen a winter without at least a couple of inches of snow. This is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 if this event hits DC and leaves RIC out, I will be so pissed. Those people up there have had some great storms in recent years, and we always get the crappy leftovers. I just want more than a "trace" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Grr...I tend to think that Feb of 2010 should shut all northern VA and DC folks up forever! Call me when we EVER see 30-40 inches on the ground! Til then, they can $#$% off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Let's just go ahead and lock in that GGEM solution, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Let's just go ahead and lock in that GGEM solution, please. lol i'll be out of town in wva i'm pulling for ya but il will take the gfs in a second 12' plus up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol i'll be out of town in wva i'm pulling for ya but il will take the gfs in a second 12' plus up there Ha. They get plenty. Need some snow to play I with my boy. Sent you a PM, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol i'll be out of town in wva i'm pulling for ya but il will take the gfs in a second 12' plus up there That was a quick decision GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GGEM is weenie.. Off run of the Nam.. (6z) is colder than 0z.. 6z Nam did not want to phase the streams at all... the whole system is powered by the stj only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ok forgive me here, from what I see in the 0z suite, the ECM, GGEM, UKMet and additionally the 06 NAM and GFS were pretty good for RVA. Why is akq saying all rain? On an interesting side note, GGEM sets up rain/snow line right over RIC, Short Pump? Mostly snow. Chester? Mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ok forgive me here, from what I see in the 0z suite, the ECM, GGEM, UKMet and additionally the 06 NAM and GFS were pretty good for RVA. Why is akq saying all rain? On an interesting side note, GGEM sets up rain/snow line right over RIC, Short Pump? Mostly snow. Chester? Mostly rain. RIC always seems to be the dividing line on winter storms. Move to Goochland....we always seem to do ok out here. I agree RT, most overnight models give us a decent snow. 06z models look better on temps, but they aren't worth their own weight imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I can't take it .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LATEST (12Z) GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO THE LO PRES AREA AFFECTING THE REGION SAT EVENG THRU SUN EVENG. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND THUS TRACKS LO PRES AREA FARTHER N AND RIGHT ACRS OUR FCST AREA. SO...HAVE GONE CLS TO THE LATEST (12Z) ECMWF WHICH HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LO MOVNG FM THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT MORNG...ENE AND OFF THE SRN MID ATLC/SE CST DURING SUN WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE LO WILL THEN CONTINUE OUT TO SEA SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS (FOR RAIN) EVERYWHERE SAT EVENG INTO SUN EVENG...AND NOW MENTIONING LIKELY POPS ACRS EXTRM SE VA/NE NC FOR LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN EVENG. POPS DECREASING TO CHC (30) AS YOU GO NWRD INTO CNTRL VA OVR TO LWR MD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY OUT TO SEA SUN EVENG/NGT...COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FM THE N BEHIND THE LO...CUD CHANGE THE RAIN TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THIS LO PRES SYSTEM MOVES TOO QUICKLY IN THE SRN STREAM AND OUT TO SEA TO ALLOW FOR ANY COLD AIR (LACK OF HI PRES TO THE N) TO BE IN PLACE FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO OCCUR. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR MON INTO TUE...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST TUE AFTN/NGT. A COLD FRNT WILL APPROACH AND MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE WED...BRINGING A CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I can't take it 12z euro snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z euro snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z euro snow maps Love you Midlo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mspegasus Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Is that blue shade snow? If so, I am all confused! LOL... They callin for rain here in Hampton! ok nevermind.. very dumb question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM says you're welcome RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM says you're welcome RIC And jackpot to Huff and the boys from Farmville west to Roanoke. Still, I'd love a 4" snowfall. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 4" snowfall for us means a 1" official measurement at the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS seems to be coming around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMW550i Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS seems to be coming around... What does the 18z GFS say....same as 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What does the 18z GFS say....same as 18z NAM? It was south of the 12z...gives us a few inches verbatim. NAM is slightly better for RIC with around 2-4" (again verbatim). GEFS looks like a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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