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Richmond Metro Winter 11/12 Disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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yea i saw some heading out this morning in those same higher spots.

did you catch the locals?

ch6 said maybe a storm and 47

ch8 said nothing about a storm and partly cloudy and 51

ch12 said pssible southern storm and maybe snow 37

Damn, they got every base covered.

I think 12 feels the most heat from the web and folks like DT on the radio. 8 is just out to lunch often and 6 tries to say as much as possible without really offering any information.

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akq is just not on board, surprised they are going with the gfs being it has flipped about every single run.they always play it safe and with our track history i can't blame them. the 0z euro had a nice +0.50" in 6 hour weenie map at hr. 138. atleast we have something to track. i can see just west of ric being the jackpot in this say from roa. cho to ezf.

.

 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL STICK CLS TO THE 12Z GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WILL NOT
BITE ON THE LATEST (12Z) ECMWF SHOWING A SRN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENG. COLD FRNT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST THU NGT
WITH HI PRES BLDNG IN FM THE W FOR FRI INTO THE FIRST PART OF SAT.
LO PRES WILL MOVE FM THE GULF OF MEXICO ENE AND OFF THE SE CST SAT
AFTN INTO SUN MORNG. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE MSTLY CLDY SKY...ESPLY OVR SRN HALF
OF THE AREA. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM THE W FOR SUN AFTN THRU MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S FRI MORNG...IN THE 30S
SAT AND SUN MORNGS...AND IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S MON MORNG. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S FRI...AND GENERALLY IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SAT...SUN...AND MON.







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Pretty funny the amount of poeple mentioning Richmond for this storm. :P Some sort of hex is being put on here. Not like were getting hyped about this yet. :P Burned way to many times at this range to start freaking out. Passive enthusiasm for the event in question maybe. But usual concerns are still present. Track... ammount of moisture.. and boundary layer issues. ::P

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yea i saw some heading out this morning in those same higher spots.

did you catch the locals?

2/13/12

ch6 said maybe a storm and 47

ch8 said nothing about a storm and partly cloudy and 51

ch12 said pssible southern storm and maybe snow 37

2/14/12

ch6 wintry storm possible hi 46

ch8 rain 51

ch 12 rain maybe to snow 43

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Ok forgive me here, from what I see in the 0z suite, the ECM, GGEM, UKMet and additionally the 06 NAM and GFS were pretty good for RVA. Why is akq saying all rain?

On an interesting side note, GGEM sets up rain/snow line right over RIC, Short Pump? Mostly snow. Chester? Mostly rain.

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Ok forgive me here, from what I see in the 0z suite, the ECM, GGEM, UKMet and additionally the 06 NAM and GFS were pretty good for RVA. Why is akq saying all rain?

On an interesting side note, GGEM sets up rain/snow line right over RIC, Short Pump? Mostly snow. Chester? Mostly rain.

RIC always seems to be the dividing line on winter storms. Move to Goochland....we always seem to do ok out here.

I agree RT, most overnight models give us a decent snow. 06z models look better on temps, but they aren't worth their own weight imo.

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I can't take it :weenie:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE LATEST (12Z) GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN THE EXTENDED

PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO THE LO PRES AREA AFFECTING THE

REGION SAT EVENG THRU SUN EVENG. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZATION

ERRORS AND THUS TRACKS LO PRES AREA FARTHER N AND RIGHT ACRS OUR

FCST AREA. SO...HAVE GONE CLS TO THE LATEST (12Z) ECMWF WHICH HAS

REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LO MOVNG FM THE

GULF OF MEXICO SAT MORNG...ENE AND OFF THE SRN MID ATLC/SE CST

DURING SUN WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE LO WILL THEN CONTINUE OUT TO SEA

SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS (FOR RAIN) EVERYWHERE

SAT EVENG INTO SUN EVENG...AND NOW MENTIONING LIKELY POPS ACRS EXTRM

SE VA/NE NC FOR LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN EVENG. POPS DECREASING TO CHC

(30) AS YOU GO NWRD INTO CNTRL VA OVR TO LWR MD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES

AWAY OUT TO SEA SUN EVENG/NGT...COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FM THE N

BEHIND THE LO...CUD CHANGE THE RAIN TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW

SHOWERS OR JUST SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME...IT

STILL LOOKS AS IF THIS LO PRES SYSTEM MOVES TOO QUICKLY IN THE SRN

STREAM AND OUT TO SEA TO ALLOW FOR ANY COLD AIR (LACK OF HI PRES TO

THE N) TO BE IN PLACE FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO

OCCUR. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR MON INTO

TUE...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST TUE AFTN/NGT. A COLD FRNT WILL

APPROACH AND MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE WED...BRINGING A CHC OF

RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

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