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Richmond Metro Winter 11/12 Disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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surprisingly Jan was not a top 10 warmest month at 42.6 which was +4.7

10th place is 45.0

this is the worst winter ever so far

I was about to say something to contradict that, but I couldn't think of anything to say. At least 07-08 had some cold towards the end. I would have never guessed that I would be saying 07-08 was better than a winter ever

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I was about to say something to contradict that, but I couldn't think of anything to say. At least 07-08 had some cold towards the end. I would have never guessed that I would be saying 07-08 was better than a winter ever

I moved to Richmond in April of '05. The winter of 07-08 and the start of 08-09 convinced me that snow around here was the mythical unicorn with very few exceptions. March '09 to February '10 sucked me back in and made me care. I ****ing hate it.

Only positive is that my fall crops have gone f'ing gang busters this winter. I've got so much broccoli, I'm not sure what to do with it. I didn't even have to pull the carrots this year, just let them store in the dirt.

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AFD...

SAT...EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS GENLY REMAINED SIMILAR OVER THE

PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...STILL TOO PROGRESSIVE FOR PHASING OF THE

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW. THE SFC LOW AND

MAIN PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD ALREADY BE EXITING THE AREA BY DAYBREAK

SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER. AS

PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED...LOOKS LIKE A LULL FOR MID MORNING THROUGH

EARLY-MID AFTN AHEAD OF TH APPROACHING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND

HAVE KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW 20%. STILL A LOT OF MSTR FOR MORE

CLOUDS THAN SUN ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE SRN 1/2.

TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPR 40S N...LWR 50S FAR S. WITH

SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...NAM/GFS AND ECMWF FOR THAT MATTER...SHOW

STRONG DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. DEEPEST

FORCING LOOKS ALIGNED FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ESE THROUGH THE VA ERN

SHORE DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN

MUCH OF EN VA N OF I-64. COLD AIR ARRIVAL IS ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER

THAN PREV MODELS...SO SNOW LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z IN

THE FAR NW AND DORCHESTER MD...AND AFTER ABOUT 23Z/6 PM FROM

METRO RICHMOND ON SE...AND AFTER 7 OR 8 PM VA BEACH TO COASTAL NC.

LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC CASE WHERE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL FIGHT W/ DRY

LOW LEVELS. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH

THAN THE NAM/ECMWF W/ FORCING AND QPF AFTER 00Z (THAT WOULD MAINLY

BE SNOW). HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER MUCH OF THE

CWA...BUT WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW TO CLIMO FAVORED NRN

NECK AND VA ERN SHORE...MAINLY FROM 23Z- 03Z/SUN. W/ STRONG

LIFT...COULD SEE A QUICK 1" OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS..BUT SFC TEMPS

WILL HAVE BEEN RATHER WARM SO ROADS WILL SEE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

ELSEWHERE WILL GO W/ 30-50% CHC SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE EARLY

EVENING (AS THICKNESSES DROP...SNOW WILL BE MAIN PTYPE ALL THE WAY

TO THE NC COAST). WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS IN

HWO FOR NOW FOR ALL ZONES. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY

BY LATER SHIFTS...IF THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED GFS VERIFIES...SNOW

AMOUNTS AND CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED...ALTHOUGH EVEN A

WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY BE LOCALLY 1-2" (AN ADVISORY)

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Maybe we get another surprise "blizzard" squall like last year??? 1-2 inches would be awesome

I highly doubt it is anything like 2010, but perhaps you are referring to that little event we had in January of last year (it came after darkness IIRC). I'd say an inch maximum, but we shall see. These trailing upper level disturbances are very hard to forecast.

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I highly doubt it is anything like 2010, but perhaps you are referring to that little event we had in January of last year (it came after darkness IIRC). I'd say an inch maximum, but we shall see. These trailing upper level disturbances are very hard to forecast.

January 26th (I only remember because it was on my birthday.) ULL went through us right around the PM rush. Made for an interesting drive down 288. There was another event last year on a weekend (no idea what day) where a band set up along the US 360 corridor and dumped a quick 2-3 inches in a <10 mile wide swath through Chesterfield and Richmond. I also remember an arctic cold front blowing through after one of the Feb 2010 snowmaggedon/snowpocalypse storms that brought in heavy snow and 50 mph winds for an hour or so.

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January 26th (I only remember because it was on my birthday.) ULL went through us right around the PM rush. Made for an interesting drive down 288. There was another event last year on a weekend (no idea what day) where a band set up along the US 360 corridor and dumped a quick 2-3 inches in a <10 mile wide swath through Chesterfield and Richmond. I also remember an arctic cold front blowing through after one of the Feb 2010 snowmaggedon/snowpocalypse storms that brought in heavy snow and 50 mph winds for an hour or so.

Actually, I took a quick look through my storm notes and discovered that the event to which I was referring was on January 7-8, which dumped 3 inches in a few hours. That is the one you mentioned about the weekend.

The one on January 26th gave me around an inch. The other event was on February 10th 2010 - I posted a picture and discription in the main thread about that storm.

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